NY Times Tony Predictions (based on voter interviews)- Page 3

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 11:33am

For what it's worth, GoldDerby's expert's predictions are as follows:
Best Play: CLYBOURNE PARK (61%)
Best Musical: ONCE (51%)
Best Book: ONCE (51%)
Best Score: NEWSIES (76%)
Best Revival of a Play: SALESMAN (76%)
Best Revival of a Musical: FOLLIES (69%)
Best Actor in a Play: Philip Seymour Hoffman (61%)
Best Actress in a Play: Tracie Bennett (50%)
Best Actor in a Musical: Jeremy Jordan (40%)
Best Actress in a Musical: Audra McDonald (72%)
Best Featured Actor in a Play: Andrew Garfield (44%)
Best Featured Actress in a Play: Judith Light (64%)
Best Featured Actor in a Musical: Michael Cerveris (39%)
Best Featured Actress in a Musical: Judy Kaye (57%)
Best Director of a Play: Mike Nichols (72%)
Best Director of a Musical: John Tiffany (73%)
Best Choreography: NEWSIES (77%)
Best Orchestrations: ONCE (64%)
Best Set Design of a Play: PETER AND THE STARCATCHER (69%)
Best Set Design of a Musical: SPIDER-MAN (60%)
Best Costume Design of a Play: PETER AND THE STARCATCHER (76%)
Best Costume Design of a Musical: FOLLIES (60%)
Best Lighting Design of a Play: PETER... (69%)
Best Lighting Design of a Musical: GHOST (47%)
Best Sound Design of a Play: END OF THE RAINBOW (49%)
Best Sound Design of a Musical: ONCE (53%)

http://www.goldderby.com/odds/index/52/

[dreaming]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 11:38am

How accurate are GoldDerby's predictions? (Do we have a basis for comparison?)

[ljay889]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 11:44am

I really think Danny Burstein or Steve Kazee are more deserving of the Tony over Jeremy Jordan. Jordan is a great talent, but his time will come.

[TheatreKid3]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 11:52am

That is a slight change from Gold Derby's predictions 2 or 3 days ago. They favored NEWSIES 10-7, but it has since reversed for ONCE (likely due to the fact they feel it has momentum).

[TheatreKid3]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 11:54am

While it may be true, it is much like the idea of not giving it to Audra because she has won enough already. I do not think that is valid reasoning for not giving the award to Jordan.

[Kad]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 12:04pm

Many people, I have found, respect Newsies. Or were entertained by Newsies. But that's it. There's a certain mindset that sees it as being very machine-like. Entertaining, sure, but still a machine. Whether it is true or not, Once is perceived to have more heart and soul, which means it has a lot more love toward it.

I don't think Jordan will win. Awards often to go to established actors who deserve their due.... or beloved veterans gracing us with their presence and another fantastic performance. Jordan is neither. He had a great year, but he did not deliver a true "star-is-born" performance, in my opinion (as Arianda did with Venus in Fur off-Broadway).

[dreaming]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 12:10pm

Kad-I tend to think in the same terms you do. (That's why I tend to lean more towards Burstein winning. He's a highly established, respected actor who has given a truly beautiful performance-and it's vastly different from what he's done before. Kazee is the one I can see being the upset here-not Jordan.) I also think that Arianda's electric performance will take the Tony (Bennett could be the spoiler here).

[bdn223]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 1:07pm

I think everyone is also forgetting that Jordan's nomination is also in recognition of Bonnie and Clyde...which is why the critics are favoring him for pulling off a blood thirsty egomaniac and a strong and forceful union leader with a soft spot in the same season and keeping both roles so grounded when they both could of easily became caracatures as well as making them appear so different. Also they may be thinking he is most certainly the hardest working actor of the season, which many would want to reward similar to Jan Maxwell 2 years ago only there is no A-List competition.

If it is truly a race between Jordan and Kazzee, whichever one wins Actor will loose musical...

**i think Disney has accepted defeat after they released that new Newsies discount that extends well after the Tonys, today, because if they were confident they would keep end the code Sunday, expecting a box office boom come Monday***

[TheatreKid3]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 1:21pm

ONCE has also extended their discount code to July 15th, so I think it is just both shows making sure they create an even better advance before the results of the Tony Awards.

[bdn223]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 1:35pm

Yes but Once will never be a blockbuster...it's win would be more along the lines of Avenue Q, Spring Awakening, and Memphis where if it wins it may sell outthe rest of the summer, and hence they producers pull the code, but come fall and winter its grosses will drop dramatically producers will be forced to reinstate a code, the win helps sustain the show in the long run. Once's win doesn't turn the show into gangbusters...a must have ticket no matter what the cost...

If Newsies wins its success will be much more comparable to that of Jersey Boys and Billey Elliot, where the show will sell out for a couple years with no discounts and be a must have, and unlike Billey Elliot it won't cost Disney an arm and a leg to find cast replacements allowing it to run for much longer...so if Disney were confident they would let the discount code expire Saturday and create a new one on Monday if they loose... Updated On: 6/8/12 at 01:35 PM

[rjm516]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 2:25pm

Is anyone just really really upset that Clybourne Park is going to win?? I wasn't impressed! College kids write papers on racism that are more poignant and intelligent than that show! Ugh the groaning that is coming out of me.

Also, I want Bonnie & Clyde to win Best Score. It doesn't seem fair that Newsies will win when most of the score was already written. On that note, does anyone know what percentage of Newsies' score was new compared to Once's?? It just seems wrong that it will win when the most beloved songs were from the movie.

[dramamama611]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 2:31pm

1. No, I'm not upset.
2. No way of KNOWING what is going to win.
3. Shows must have at least 50% of the music to be eligable for nomination. They are only suppose to judge the new music, but that is likely impossible to do.
4. No new music was written for Once, while 1/2 of the score for newsies is new.

I'm rooting for either of the plays to actually win for best score.

[dramamama611]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 2:31pm

1. No, I'm not upset.
2. No way of KNOWING what is going to win.
3. Shows must have at least 50% of the music to be eligable for nomination. They are only suppose to judge the new music, but that is likely impossible to do.
4. No new music was written for Once, while 1/2 of the score for newsies is new.

I'm rooting for either of the plays to actually win for best score.

[bdn223]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 2:41pm

Only two songs from Newsies were left almost completely untouched, Santa Fe and Carrying the Banner, the rest were heavily reworked especially Once and For All, which has been greatly lengthened, and been reworked to the point where only the melody is recognizable...while Once is only songs form the movie with two songs taken off of Girls album...

@Dramamama onc a score is deemed elligible the entire score is to be considered, for a nomination and especially when voting

[Mister Matt]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 3:13pm

Fela didn't get the Tony and it ended up not lasting long, and it's not doing great on tour, as it could be had it the Tony to display.

A Tony win wouldn't have helped Fela in the least. It simply wasn't a subject or a style that was going to capture much interest. I loved it, but I admit I only went because it was included in my season ticket package. The Tony performance, the cast recording, the reviews, and the video clips did nothing for me. I'm glad I saw it, but the show was always going to be hard sell.

I think if Once didn't win at this point it would be massive shock...

Not to anyone familiar with the history of the Tonys. It might be a huge letdown, but not a shock.

Riedel would rather pull his fingernails off one by one than ever admit he's wrong.

Didn't he admit on more than one occasion that he was wrong about Spider-Man closing in a year?

And let's not forget that Memphis won...it actually won so they're not beyond doing something really bizzare.

That wasn't very bizarre at all. It wasn't my favorite of the season, but after having seen it, I could certainly understand how it won. The fact that it is the only Best Musical nominee of the season still running sort of supports the notion that it has enough appeal to have gained popularity, which hardly categorizes its win as "bizarre". Leap of Faith winning Best Musical would be bizarre.

In what other years has the best musical race been this close:

Kiss of the Spider Woman v. The Who's Tommy
Nine v. Dreamgirls
The Lion King v. Ragtime
Thoroughly Modern Mille v. Urinetown
Passion v. Beauty and the Beast
Fiorello v. The Sound of Music

I really don't remember Passion/Beauty and the Beast as being close at all. There was so much hostility towards the Disney company at the time, it really didn't seem to stand a chance. But I would probably add Wicked/Avenue Q to the list.

I think everyone is also forgetting that Jordan's nomination is also in recognition of Bonnie and Clyde...

I seriously doubt that, but if Newsies wins Best Score based on the entire score instead of just the eligible songs, then I guess they should all consider the entire theatrical careers of all the nominees and forget their association with this season's shows altogether. I absolutely hate that kind of garbage. Jordan's nomination for Newsies should have nothing to do with Bonnie & Clyde. Zero. None. Nada. Hard-working actors come along every season and he may be flavor of the month for starring in the current tween sensation, but I didn't think his acting in Bonnie & Clyde was anything notable and though I haven't seen him perform Newsies, his singing on the cast recording is unbearable to me. But if he wins for Newsies, then it's for Newsies. If someone wants to reward him for be hard-working, then let his mother take care of that.

Shows must have at least 50% of the music to be eligable for nomination. They are only suppose to judge the new music, but that is likely impossible to do.

See, I think it's quite easy to do, especially when you have a cast recording (which Tony voters usually receive complimentary specifically for this purpose). You listen to those tracks only when you consider your vote. The fact that the new material is so glaringly weaker than the previously existing material (which many musical theatre people were already familiar with) should make it even easier. Newsies will probably win, though I can't come up with a valid reason why it should.

Updated On: 6/8/12 at 03:13 PM

[TheatreKid3]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 3:19pm

^ Every single song in NEWSIES received extensive musical and lyrical updates. While some musical ones (such as those in "Carrying the Banner") aren't as pronounced, make no mistake they are there if you listen to it close enough. "Santa Fe" was drastically improved upon musically and lyrically, especially with addition of the prologue version (which counts as an entirely new song). If I were a Tony voter I would consider this an entirely new score. And yes, if a show's score is deemed eligible, then the ENTIRE score must be taken into account for voting.

I, for one, am so glad Menken's incredible score is getting the recognition it deserved 20 years ago.

[Jonwo]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 3:23pm

Carrying the Banner was reworked slightly, some of the lyrics are different from the original film but it was for the better as I actually prefer the stage lyrics for the songs than the film version, even Seize the Day which is a decent song in the film is a much better song in the musical.

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 3:36pm

The reworking of the songs in Newsies is more like the reworking of previously existing music for a jukebox musical. The musical changes done to "Carrying the Banner" and "Sante Fe" are called arrangements. The melodies were already written, just arranged. The lyrics were changed, sure. But Menken's new music lies in the entirely new songs and a portion of "Once and For All." I wouldn't call the prologue of "Santa Fe" an entirely new song. I mean, would we consider the different versions of "Chim Chim Cheree" in Mary Poppins entirely new songs? Is "Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious" with the spelling section an entirely new song?

This is my opinion of the originality of the score, not the Tony committee's. I believe most of the "50% or more" lies in the lyrics. They changed most of the lyrics to the existing songs, and I don't really see the reason why.

[Mister Matt]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 3:36pm

If I were a Tony voter I would consider this an entirely new score. And yes, if a show's score is deemed eligible, then the ENTIRE score must be taken into account for voting.

So you're saying the nomination committee just...got it wrong? Tinkering with previously published material isn't the same thing as composing new material and the award is for new material. The rules of eligibility make the most sense as it stands now. Otherwise, you might as well just open it up to everything including jukebox shows. But I have to say, I'd be mightily pissed if Tony voters just blatantly ignore the rules of eligibility just to suit their personal preferences. They shouldn't be taking the responsibility of voting and invalidating the entire process.

Updated On: 6/8/12 at 03:36 PM

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 3:52pm

Considering the entire score as original when only 50% of it is new makes absolutely no sense to me. Hypothetical: If Jersey Boys were sung through and the book scenes were all original songs and recitatives, would we consider "Sherry," "Who Loves You," etc. as part of the original score when voting for the Tony Award for Best Original Score?

Gotta love this qualification for this 1996 Best Score nominee:

State Fair; Music by Richard Rodgers/Lyrics by Oscar Hammerstein II (only the songs Driving at Night, You Never Had It So Good, When I Go Out Walking With My Baby and Boys and Girls Like You and Me are eligible for Tony Award consideration.)

[TheatreKid3]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 4:06pm

I don't know where you got from my post that I thought the committee got it wrong, sorry if there wasn't confusion. On the contrary, I was just posting my opinion that the score has been reworked enough that this shouldn't be in dispute. In fact, it shouldn't be in dispute period because the committee ruled it eligible.

And I actually love the lyrical changes and feel they were necessary. They make the songs much tighter and coherent, not to mention relevant. As much I miss Patrick's Mother like many, that was such a random moment in the movie (and I was waiting for the character of Patrick to appear the entire movie, as I thought that moment was introducing a major plot line involving him, lol), so the omission works better for the tightening of the song as a whole. "Santa Fe" is a 100x better and meaningful song, and contributes so much more to the story. "Once and for All" has honestly become one of my favorite songs. The additions for it are brilliant. The existing songs were all made better for the stage. Sorry for the rant, haha! I just had to provide some justification for the lyric changes!

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 4:10pm

I mean, I clearly see why things were changed. Definitely feels more like an adaptation for the stage more than anything though, not a full-blown original lyric.

[theatreguy]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 4:10pm

HeyMrMusic, the 50% rule actually came about because of that State Fair nomination for Best Score.

[Mister Matt]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 4:51pm

In fact, it shouldn't be in dispute period because the committee ruled it eligible.

The committee ruled quite clearly that only the new songs were eligible, not the old songs with some reworked bits (which happens to many revivals as well). I felt you thought the committee got it wrong because you believe that an entire score should be eligible even if it's not by their own rules of eligibility. Otherwise, it would have been ruled as a completely new score and they wouldn't have to specify which parts are actually eligible. If you love the whole score, that's great. But it isn't relevant to the Tony award nomination and voting process. It reminds me of a Tony voter I knew who voted Aida for Best Score because he believed "it was the only actual musical score of the season". He never should have been allowed to vote in that category.

[TheatreKid3]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 5:15pm

Oh I don't want to sound like my love for the score gives it any precedence over the other nominees, but I do think it is the best out of the four (not because of my love, but just because compared to the others, I feel it is). But I thought it has even sated many times on here that once a score is deemed eligible, and that is the rule? Every Disney musical prior to this ha been eligible for best score, so I don't see why NEWSIES's score has been questioned so much.