NY Times Tony Predictions (based on voter interviews)

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 6:23pm

Best Musical: ONCE
Best Play: CLYBOURNE PARK
Best Revival of a Musical: FOLLIES
Best Revival of a Play: DEATH OF A SALESMAN
Best Actor in a Play: Phillip Seymour Hoffman, SALESMAN
Best Actress in a Play: Nina Arianda, VENUS IN FUR
Best Actor in a Musical: Too close to call; horserace between Steve Kazee, ONCE and Danny Burstein, FOLLIES
Best Actress in a Musical: Audra McDonald, PORGY AND BESS

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/08/theater/theaterspecial/newsies-versus-once-and-other-tony-competitions.html?_r=1


They also mention ONCE will take Best Director of a Musical and Best Book, while NEWSIES will take Choreography and Score.
Updated On: 6/7/12 at 06:23 PM

[ljay889]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 6:40pm

I would be VERY happy if the musical categories turned out this way.

[Playbilly]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 6:46pm

Useless article. Interviewed 40 people.

[aasjb4ever]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 6:48pm

OR, OR Jan Maxwell could take Best Actress in a Musical.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 7:05pm

How is it useless...? They can't exactly ask every single voter, because then they'd know who will win...

Updated On: 6/7/12 at 07:05 PM

[ljay889]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 7:18pm

Here's how their Tony voter poll turned out last year

Best Musical
prediction: Mormon
winner: Mormon

Best Play
prediction: War Horse
winner: War Horse

Play Revival
prediction: The Normal Heart
winner: The Normal Heart

Musical Revival
prediction: Anything Goes
winner: Anything Goes

Best Actor, Play
prediction: Toss-up, edge given to Mark Rylance
winner: Mark Rylance

Best Actress, Play
prediction: Frances McDormand
winner: Frances McDormand

Best Actor, Musical
prediction: edge given to Norbert Leo Butz
winner: Norbert Leo Butz

Best Actress, Musical
prediction: Sutton Foster
winner: Sutton Foster

2011 was a very predictable year. Here is how their predictions turned out in 2010.

Best Musical
prediction: edge given to Fela!
winner: Memphis

Best Play
prediction: Red
winner: Red

Play Revival
prediction: Fences
winner: Fences

Musical Revival
prediction: La Cage
winner: La Cage

Best Actor, Play
prediction: edge given to Denzel Washington
winner: Denzel Washington

Best Actress, Play
prediction: Viola Davis
winner: Viola Davis

Best Actor, Musical
prediction: Douglas Hodge
winner: Douglas Hodge

Best Actress, Musical
prediction: Montego Glover
winner: Catherine Zeta-Jones

2010:http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/11/theater/theaterspecial/11tony.html
2011:http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/10/theater/theaterspecial/tony-awards-forecast-book-of-mormon-and-sutton-foster.html

Just some food for thought. It seems like they have a pretty good track record.

Updated On: 6/7/12 at 07:18 PM

[Dollypop]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 7:43pm

Does any of this really matter? GODSPELL didn't receive any nominations at all!

[castlestreet]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 8:06pm

At this point I would be very surprised if Once doesn't win Best Musical- I think Actor Musical still goes to Danny

[adamgreer]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 8:20pm

Is there anyone who really doubts that Once is the front-runner at this point?

The Entertainment Weekly and AP predictions, giving the award to Newsies, seem bizarre to me. Once has won all of the precursor awards, and at this point, the "surprise" for me would be if it didn't win.

[Bwaydide92]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 8:37pm

Well any prediction article is useless since it's just a prediction. So why read it if you're not going to take it with a grain of salt.

Seems to be very well thought though. Very good reasoning for all of them. Especially Best Musical. It'll go to Once because Newsies doesn't need it.

[TheatreKid3]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 8:50pm

Out of the many prediction articles I have read thus far from several media outlets, there has been more favor shown toward NEWSIES winning Best Musical, though most remark that the race is close. I mean, we all knew if NEWSIES had the best shot of winning any of the Best Musical awards it would be the Tony.

Theater Talk's prediction show was unanimous for NEWSIES (with a few acting like it was the obvious choice), with only one reviewer picking ONCE "just because I wanted to be perverse.". Apparently there is a running gag with him that he always gets the awards wrong most of the time.

And this BS about not voting for NEWSIES because it doesn't need the Tony is stupid. The best show deserves it, regardless of which one needs it more. In my opinion, I almost consider that a type of anti-Disney mindset where they don't want to award the big name brand because they don't think it NEEDS the win as it can shell out money and sell on name alone. If a show deserves it, then it deserves it regardless of how rich or powerful the producers are.

And with the NYT voter poll predictions, while not too bad of a track record, I found it odd/interestingthat the last time the artsy musical went up against the traditional musical (FELA!/MEMPHIS), they got it wrong. 2011 was just the MORMON steamroll.

Updated On: 6/7/12 at 08:50 PM

[Bwaydide92]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 8:58pm

I agree. Not giving a show the Tony because it can sell on name alone is stupid, but a lot of the Tony voter are tour producers and if you're a business person you're going to want to create the best situation for yourself. If they give Newsies things like book and choreography then Newsies can claim to be Tony Award winning. Once, which is a lot less known in popular culture would benefit better from a Best Musical win because it will help sell this less-known, artsy musical. If the voters do that then they create a situation where they can have two well selling productions in their seasons instead of just one. Fela didn't get the Tony and it ended up not lasting long, and it's not doing great on tour, as it could be had it the Tony to display.

It's an unfair world, but that's how it works.

[ljay889]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 8:59pm

Theater Talk's prediction show is usually filmed right after the nominations come out. Momentum changes VERY quickly during Tony season.

[ljay889]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 8:59pm

double Updated On: 6/7/12 at 08:59 PM

[Jonwo]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 9:07pm

It's going to close for best musical, I think Once will edge Newsies but it wouldn't surprise me if Newsies wins. Still think Once won't be as successful as tour, we've seen with Billy Elliot that even though it won best musical, it didn't do as well on tour.

[TheatreKid3]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 9:07pm

While I do understand the financial benefits of having both shows claim to be Tony winning, I would think it would be more advantageous for the touring voters to choose a show like NEWSIES, a show that is already doing sellout business, and turn it into a mega hit like LION KING and MORMON. Both shows were doing great business before, but after the Tony wins they have become runaway smash hits. If ONCE wins the Tony, I don't see it achieving that level of popularity. I think it will do sell out business, but nothing more spectacular than what NEWSIES is already doing (or maybe a little more). It will be similar to MEMPHIS, which was in no way turned into a mega hit by winning the Tony. It will do better business, but not INCREDIBLE business. NEWSIES, on the other hand, in my opinion, could become much bigger than it already is and give Disney (and touring producers) their next LION KING.

And I echo the sentiments about ONCE's tour prospects. Though, BILLY ELLIOT's lack of success on the road stunned me. I thought it was honestly the best show I've ever seen. I don't know if it is just because I relate to it so much or what, but it is powerful.

Just my opinion, though!



Updated On: 6/7/12 at 09:07 PM

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 9:17pm

When was the last time a show that's won everything leading up to the Tonys lost Best Musical? Where both horses were in the same race? (Wicked wouldn't work here.)

[TheatreKid3]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 9:22pm

I'm not sure. But there is a first time for everything. There isn't really a season we can compare this one to, honestly (save for Wicked/Avenue Q in reverse - Wicked had all the momentum, then got stunned). FELA! Wasn't eligible for the drama desks, etc. in 2010 so who knows what would have happened. That's the closest at being a good example or indicator of how this season will go. I thought FELA! had a ton of momentum going into the Tony Awards, but then everything just seemed to go MEMPHIS' way.

Updated On: 6/7/12 at 09:22 PM

[Bwaydide92]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 9:22pm

I think MORMON and LION KING are different stories though. They were just huge achievements in the theatre world. No one had seen anything like LION KING when in came out. Broadway just wasn't used to something like that and for them not to give it the Tony would have been ridiculous, they would have lost their credibility.

Mormon was already a huge hit before the Tonys. They didn't help it at all, because it didn't need the award, but like Chris Rock said, it wasn't a surprise. I think people would have started laughing if anything else won, especially considering its biggest competition was a show that had been closed for quite some time.

This race is a lot closer. Kind of like AVENUE Q and WICKED. ONCE has been given all of the critic love, I think NEWSIES has gotten pretty good reviews but nothing like ONCE (I don't think, I could be wrong). NEWSIES IS like the new WICKED, a lot of "theatre snobs" don't like it at all, but it'll probably run for years and someone will post on this board asking if they should see NEWSIES or_________? and people will say the other show because NEWSIES really isn't anything great (I don't necessarily agree, haven't seen it). But it seems like another of those years. And WICKED was selling like crazy before the Tonys, like NEWSIES is now.

But then again, WICKED went away with most of the smaller Best Musical awards and AVENUE Q grabbed the big one. ONCE has been getting them all this year, maybe NEWSIES will grab the big one.

Still don't understand how MEMPHIS won anything. That show was horrendous. Updated On: 6/7/12 at 09:22 PM

[dramamama611]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 9:27pm

Except Newsies sales are already slowing down, and Once sales are increasing. Not trying to say that Newsies is hurting, but they aren't selling like gangbusters.

This SHOULDN'T have anything to.do.with who.needs it or how well.it might do on tour. It SHOULD only be based on what the voters truly think is the better overall show is -- but we know that's not really what goes into into it for many voters.

Updated On: 6/8/12 at 09:27 PM

[Jonwo]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 9:30pm

I don't think Newsies could do any better as it's already selling out but I wouldn't be surprised if ticket prices go up after the Tonys although probably not to the same degree as The Book of Mormon.

Disney probably won't have a hit like The Lion King again, Newsies will likely transfer overseas in the next few years but I think Disney will have to market it very well due to the film being unknown so a Tony win will help but is not essential.

[TheatreKid3]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 9:52pm

Didn't LION KING's sales slow down at one time as well, but then all of a sudden become just as big as it was before? I'd heard something like that at once. NEWSIES slowing down can mainly be attributed to the fact that its run was open ended, thus alleviating the pressure to buy tickets within a certain date or rush not seeing the show as most were selling out. I think a Best Musical win would be enough to push the show way past the business it was doing before, and increase advances dramatically. Best Musical also has a way of bringing in a new type of audience that wouldn't have seen the show otherwise (and that is true for any show that wins). That coupled with the Fansies would set NEWSIES on the path to a great run (or at least a greater one than it is already going to have).

[Jonwo]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 10:01pm

I think the move to the Minskoff actually helped Lion King, having less seats meant it could sell out regularly. I also suspect when Disney had Poppins, Tarzan and Mermaid at one time, it may have hurt sales.

[Bwaydide92]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 10:12pm

I think LION KING was never a real powerhouse like it is now. The move helped it sell out and raise ticket prices which have helped it enormously. Looking at its grosses through the years, I think it was a lot more like PHANTOM is and was just stable but not a hard to get ticket. I think the increased popularity might have to do with the fact that the generation that were kids when it came out are now becoming adults and being able to afford theatre tickets more easily, and going to something like LION KING is like reliving childhood.

I think NEWSIES will do well for a long time. Especially after the Tonys.

[Jonwo]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 10:19pm

Tom Schumacher said in an interview that while The Minskoff was 200 seats less than the New Amsterdam, they were able to make more money as most of the seats are in the Orchestra and could sell at the higher price. Before The Lion King, The Minskoff's most successful and longest running show was Sunset Boulevard and that lost money!

Newsies being at the Nederlander will mean it'll run for a while, it's the most successful show at that theatre since Rent.