Nomination Morning Goose Eggs

There are always a few shows that wake up to 0 Tony nominations. What do we think those shows will be this year?

Strong possibilities:

- Chicken & Biscuits
- Is this a Room
- Thoughts of a Colored Man
- Birthday Candles
- Macbeth
…American Buffalo? It got great reviews, but will the Tony voters "snub" it over the recent Mamet comments and a strong overall field? (sort of like the Mockingbird situation)

By the above logic, every musical that opened would have at least one nom, which feels a little too clean.

I'm not necessarily predicting this for the below shows, but these are in a category of "might get just one nomination" (the nom is in parentheses), but that nom is not guaranteed:

Mr. Saturday Night (Actor)
Pass Over (Play)
Lackawanna Blues (Actor)
Trouble In Mind (Revival)
Diana and Flying Over Sunset probably have lone Score noms at most

Updated On: 4/27/22 at 10:40 AM

Due to their tragically short runs quite early in the season, I wouldn’t be surprised if Dana H. and Is This a Room are shut out (yes, even including Deirdre O’Connell).

Potential goose eggs to me:

Birthday Candles (although Debra Messing could sneak in...or maybe set design)
Chicken & Biscuits (maaaaaaaybe Ebony Marshall-Oliver or Michael Urie breaks through)
Pass Over (I don't see any of the performers getting in...but maybe set design?)
Thoughts of a Colored Man (This could be a weird Best Play only show...although I doubt it. I don't think there are any other standout elements of the show.
Lackawanna Blues maybe...
Plaza Suite...unless SJP gets in
Diana (I'd put this as the likeliest goose egg of all)...
...other than The Little Prince, which wouldn't really have been eligible for anything anyway.

Honestly, I'd be shocked if Dana H. doesn't get a nod for Deirdre O'Connell. And I could see it potentially breaking through in sound/lighting design. A nomination for Is This a Room? is much less certain. Emily Davis is the most likely nomination, although a generous committee could slot it into Play ... and maybe lighting?

I feel like all of the other less successful musicals have some standout element where they'll get a nod:

Flying Over Sunset will get some design nods.
Girl from the North Country will break through somewhere...probably set/lighting...and maybe Mare.
Rob McClure seems likely to represent Mrs. Doubtfire
Same with Billy Crystal for Mr. Saturday Night.
Paradise Square will see Joaquina nominated ... and likely choreography.

I think SJP will get in, but Broderick will not which is little awkward for a two person play. I also think Plaza Suite is getting a set design nom.

As awful as the show was, I still think Diana gets in for costumes. The costume design was spectacular and the Tonys love William Ivey Long (and have continued to nominate him even after the allegations against him became public).

I think Sunset is a near lock for Score and Scenic Design (Scenic Design because they love to nominate shows at the Beaumont, especially with heavy projection use, and Score because there aren't many other choices) and I have a feeling Carmen Cusack gets in as well, but that's not nearly as certain.

I think the most likely goose eggs are Pass Over, Birthday Candles, Lackawanna Blues, Macbeth, Thoughts of a Colored Man, Chicken and Biscuits, and potentially POTUS (although Rachel Dratch is looking more and more likely for a nomination). But I'm sure there will be plenty of surprises.

My predicted Score nominees:

Strange Loop
Six
Diana
Paradise Square
Flying Over Sunset

Unless they surprisingly love Mr. Saturday Night or a play.

ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "My predicted Score nominees:

Strange Loop
Six
Diana
Paradise Square
Flying Over Sunset

Unless they surprisingly love Mr. Saturday Night or a play."

I'd substitute Diana and maybe Paradise Square for Mr. Saturday Night and perhaps Plaza Suite.