I think Milioti is a definite dark horse, but I'd say it's probably still Audra's award to lose at this point. She's never won a Tony in a leading category, so I think they'll take the chance to give it to her for a highly acclaimed performance in an iconic role. I think Riedel is correct and Roger will be shut out; if I had to guess the nominees, I'd say: Maxwell, McDonald, Milioti, O'Hara, Peters.
"You travel alone because other people are only there to remind you how much that hook hurts that we all bit down on. Wait for that one day we can bite free and get back out there in space where we belong, sail back over water, over skies, into space, the hook finally out of our mouths and we wander back out there in space spawning to other planets never to return hurrah to earth and we'll look back and can't even see these lives here anymore. Only the taste of blood to remind us we ever existed. The earth is small. We're gone. We're dead. We're safe."
-John Guare, Landscape of the Body