I have yet to see Evita, but I honestly would be shocked if Bernadette was nominated over Elena Roger. I don't know what performance the Tony voters saw, but Bernadette's Sally was just an odd performance, to say the least. For all the qualms about Roger's singing, at least she apparently acts the role quite well. Bernadette, when I saw it at least, struggled with her songs, and her acting choices were really bizarre.
Not that it really matters for me anyway, as Jan Maxwell better be winning that Tony.
I am a firm believer in serendipity- all the random pieces coming together in one wonderful moment, when suddenly you see what their purpose was all along.