I do agree that Memphis could get in there. It appears to be an underdog success story right now and I give it a lot of credit for being a total original. I'd like it to get nominated for that reason especially, even if I wish it had still gone through another draft or two, to have made it that much better.
My reasons for including Addams Family and Come Fly Away were the following: Addams Family is the one big traditional book musical of the spring with genuine Broadway stars heading a very good cast. Its reviews in Chicago were mostly positive, with a constructive notice from Chris Jones, Chicago Tribune, which the producers and creative team seem to be heeding. Even if not everything gets solved for New York, I think it gets in on the basis of being what it is.
Come Fly Away will surely rile the purists who still bristle that Contact won Best Musical. It sounds like another piece that doesn't fit neatly in the category of "musical," but given that there's nowhere else to put it since "special event" has been eliminated, it will be up for Best Musical. It got a great Isherwood review out of town, so I think the Times will endorse it again. There's the appeal of the Sinatra factor. If it is more Movin' Out and less Times They Are a Changin', I think it will get in.
So until we know more - I'll still go with The Addams Family, American Idiot, Come Fly Away and Fela! as my four Best Musical nominee predictions, with Memphis as the wild card.
Begin at the beginning and go on till you come to the end: then stop.