Spider-Man Predictions- Page 2

[hottieho13]

Posted: 12/3/10 at 12:40am

it will close after a year.i don"t really see this show making a huge profit ,let alone breaking even.

[dramamama611]

Posted: 12/3/10 at 12:56am

Breaking even has to happen before it can make ANY sort of profit.

[fingerlakessinger]

Posted: 12/3/10 at 1:17am

So the show cost $65 million...
Running cost of $1 million
with profits going to backers until it recoups?
I'm naive when it comes to the financial aspect of Broadway so forgive me...
But with these estimates (if even correct) how long will it take for them to recoup if they have steady business (say $1.3 million each week)?
I just did the math...I got over 4 years...but again I dont think I had any of those numbers right or the way they organize the money on Broadway so I have no idea

Updated On: 12/3/10 at 01:17 AM

[dented146]

Posted: 12/3/10 at 1:19am

It will make the next good musical to come along with a creative score and a moving book look like a masterpiece. And it will help bring sanity rather than hype back to Broadway.

[dramamama611]

Posted: 12/3/10 at 1:29am

fingerlake: the estimate has always been approx 5 years of sold out houses to break even....but if they can sell full price tickets as they did for first preview....it could be less.

CAN it be done? Wicked has been grossing at a million a week for 5 plus years now (with minimal exceptions). But they re-couped long ago.

WILL it be done? Only time will tell.

[leefowler]

Posted: 2/9/11 at 10:45am

I'm resurrecting this thread to look at predictions made about this show early in December. Over all, I was fairly prescient, I think (mine is the first post).

Not that you'd need to be Kreskin, actually.

[beensince1987]

Posted: 2/9/11 at 11:25am

this will run forever without official opening
taymor will work on it til she perishes
u2 folks never set a foot in the foxwoods again

this will be next "cats"

[Yero my Hero]

Posted: 2/9/11 at 12:24pm

So the show cost $65 million...
Running cost of $1 million
with profits going to backers until it recoups?
I'm naive when it comes to the financial aspect of Broadway so forgive me...
But with these estimates (if even correct) how long will it take for them to recoup if they have steady business (say $1.3 million each week)?
I just did the math...I got over 4 years...but again I dont think I had any of those numbers right or the way they organize the money on Broadway so I have no idea

I know this was an old post, but I'm responding anyway.

Any weekly profit after paying the running costs gets split between the investors and the creative royalties. The split is usually 60/40 before recoupment, I think, and 50/50 after.

So if SPIDER-MAN has a running cost of $1 million and earns $1.2 million in one week, that is $200,000 leftover, which means $80,000 to pay royalties and only $120,000 to pay back investors. (Except for a small weekly fee built into the operating costs, producers earn nothing until the show recoups.)

Assuming the weekly costs are at $1 million, the show continues earning an average of $1.2 million a week, and assuming the royalties follow the standard 60/40 split (which is a lot of assumptions, I know, but that's all we have right now), by my calculations, it would take over 10 years to earn a profit. ($65 million/$120,000 per week=541.6 weeks, or 10.4 years)

There is no possible way. Even when shows have run that long, they don't consistently sell out every single week.