Spider-Man Predictions

To make this a little different from the other Spider-Man thread (which is now hovering around 90,000 entries, or so) I'm proposing a thread made up of predictions about how the next year or so is going to go for Spider-Man. Psychics are welcome.

I predict...

Business will be sensational during the preview period.

Michael Riedel will continue to constantly dog the show. He will continue to report how many times the show is halted during previews, and he will describe every change put into the show. Over all, his tone will be, shall we say, negative.

If at any performance someone is (God forbid) injured, it will be an international news story. There will be calls for the police to step in.

There will be many more cancelled performances, and the opening will be delayed until February.

The reviews will be similar to those that Addams Family received..a couple of good ones, but overwhelmingly negative. Julie Taymor will say she's proud of the show, and that the critics has been out to get her from the beginning. U2 and Bono will publicly stand by the show, but, after opening, they won't attend another performance.

Julie Taymor will announce that even though the show has officially opened, she will continue to make changes and improvements

A spectacular TV commercial will come out, that makes the show look incredible.

Inevitably other shows will open on Broadway, many receiving good reviews, taking a lot of focus away from Spider-Man. Spider-Man will continue to sell a lot of tickets, but it'll no longer sell out.

Tony nominations! Spider-Man gets no nominations, even for best set, which will cause a bit of fuss. Ms. Taymor will again claim everyone has it out for her.

After a run of between one and a half and two years, Spider-Man announces that it is ending it's Broadway run, with plans to reopen the show in Las Vegas. It closes with a 30 million dollar loss.

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90,000 entries??? Try just shy of 600 posts.

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With an operating cost that high and investors who will no doubt want to see a return as soon as possible, I give it six months tops. Then they'll strip it down a bit, haul it out on the road and turn it into an arena production, and *that*'s where they'll make their money back.

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It is a shame becuase I know some young kids who would totally go see it! It might bring them into the theater and then want to see other shows.

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As someone who works in the theatre district I've already heard tons of first hand accounts from tourists who, SURPRISE, think it's the greatest thing since slice bread. Literally, these tourists were practically climbing on the table telling everyone to go see Spiderman as soon as possible.

So..... as long as they're writing home about it, or in this day and age, posting it on facebook.... I think it'll be a huge hit in the financial sense. I have rarely seen this kind of positive word of mouth where people are so freaked out. It's actually never happened at this restaurant...

Reviews will be awful I'm sure...... but like someone earlier said...... the people who are going to spend 150 or more will not give a dang about the reviews....

BIG BUCKS WILL BE MADE for sure! As far as the Tony's go..... if it gets a few good reviews it might get tony's ... since Bloody Bloody and Scottsboro are closing the season is wide open again. Yikes!

A chandelier and a helicopter will be introduced and the show will "fly" for more than 21 years.

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Looks like the OP doesn't realize how much tourist traffic there is in Manhattan and that tourists want to see big spectacles like this, Lion King, and Wicked. Spider-Man will do well because the target demographic won't even know about (or care about) critic reviews.

And I think, from the looks of it, there could very well be Tony nominations for Scenic Design, Costume Design, and Lighting Design. Not all Tonys ride on the strength of the book and score

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And I think, from the looks of it, there could very well be Tony nominations for Scenic Design, Costume Design, and Lighting Design. Not all Tonys ride on the strength of the book and score.

Tell that to the designers of such recent shows as 9 to 5, The Pirate Queen, The Addams Family, and Young Frankenstein (nominated for set only). Those shows were beautifully designed in my opinion, but the shows themselves weren't that good. The negative reviews took the focus away from the parts of the shows that were well done.

I predict the preview period will remain packed, and it's during that period that die-hard comic fans will see it and be unsatisfied, with little to no repeat customers from that demographic. Theater snobs may decide to catch previews for schadenfreude and so they can do firsthand-account bitching (also, to have a story for years to come), but once it opens and the reviewers officially get to it, theater snobs will not venture into Foxwoods.

That leaves casual NYC theatergoers, who cannot sustain a $65-million show, and tourists, who can. Kids will beg their parents, but if the score and story is really as incomprehensible as tweets and posts are making it sound and the stunts, while dazzling, comprise 5 minutes of the show, the tourist trade may bow to negative word-of-mouth and opt for more reliable fare like WICKED and LION KING and ADDAMS FAMILY. Lots of people go on about Spidey's wide appeal, and to an extent I agree with that.

What I think Spidey will not have, ironically, is legs.

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You vulture.

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Well, it *was* kind of silly.

Hee hee. Just kidding. I love you!

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Similar to Shrek or Young Frankenstein, it'll run about a year.

Hard to see that it'll return anything to the investors with a $1mm weekly nut. I say it does 3-4 months at about 1.2 and about 6-8 just below a million before giving up and closing. I'm guessing Jan 4th, 2012.

Brought to you by Bialystock & Bloom productions

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