Spider-Man Predictions

[leefowler]

Posted: 12/1/10 at 2:00am

To make this a little different from the other Spider-Man thread (which is now hovering around 90,000 entries, or so) I'm proposing a thread made up of predictions about how the next year or so is going to go for Spider-Man. Psychics are welcome.

I predict...

Business will be sensational during the preview period.

Michael Riedel will continue to constantly dog the show. He will continue to report how many times the show is halted during previews, and he will describe every change put into the show. Over all, his tone will be, shall we say, negative.

If at any performance someone is (God forbid) injured, it will be an international news story. There will be calls for the police to step in.

There will be many more cancelled performances, and the opening will be delayed until February.

The reviews will be similar to those that Addams Family received..a couple of good ones, but overwhelmingly negative. Julie Taymor will say she's proud of the show, and that the critics has been out to get her from the beginning. U2 and Bono will publicly stand by the show, but, after opening, they won't attend another performance.

Julie Taymor will announce that even though the show has officially opened, she will continue to make changes and improvements

A spectacular TV commercial will come out, that makes the show look incredible.

Inevitably other shows will open on Broadway, many receiving good reviews, taking a lot of focus away from Spider-Man. Spider-Man will continue to sell a lot of tickets, but it'll no longer sell out.

Tony nominations! Spider-Man gets no nominations, even for best set, which will cause a bit of fuss. Ms. Taymor will again claim everyone has it out for her.

After a run of between one and a half and two years, Spider-Man announces that it is ending it's Broadway run, with plans to reopen the show in Las Vegas. It closes with a 30 million dollar loss.

[jennafan]

Posted: 12/1/10 at 2:28am

I predict you will start another worthless thread.

[dramamama611]

Posted: 12/1/10 at 3:57am

90,000 entries??? Try just shy of 600 posts.

[tazber]

Posted: 12/1/10 at 6:25am

Rough preview period, but once it opens it will do solid business.

The people who will keep this show running won't even be aware of the critic's reviews. There is a massive potential audience for this show that dwarfs the typical theater demo.

As long as they keep awareness high (like the 60 minutes spot) they will get an entirely new segment of patrons who wouldn't know Gypsy from Gigi.

[SeanMartin]

Posted: 12/1/10 at 7:20am

With an operating cost that high and investors who will no doubt want to see a return as soon as possible, I give it six months tops. Then they'll strip it down a bit, haul it out on the road and turn it into an arena production, and *that*'s where they'll make their money back.

[CurtainPullDowner]

Posted: 12/1/10 at 1:58pm

A lot of damage has been done. Last night on Jimmy Kimmel he quoted the Post, saying the show was an "epic flop", more bad press is sure to follow.
The producers and creative team have only themselves to blame, putting the show in front of any audience in that shape, preview or whatever, was a huge mistake.
Now they have an even bigger mountain to conquer.

[JRybka]

Posted: 12/1/10 at 2:09pm

It is a shame becuase I know some young kids who would totally go see it! It might bring them into the theater and then want to see other shows.

[PopAria]

Posted: 12/1/10 at 2:12pm

I predict a very successful holiday season run and an even more successful opening night; With amazing reviews it will pull through and sell-out well through the Fall of 2011.

[MadonnaMusical]

Posted: 12/1/10 at 2:49pm

As someone who works in the theatre district I've already heard tons of first hand accounts from tourists who, SURPRISE, think it's the greatest thing since slice bread. Literally, these tourists were practically climbing on the table telling everyone to go see Spiderman as soon as possible.

So..... as long as they're writing home about it, or in this day and age, posting it on facebook.... I think it'll be a huge hit in the financial sense. I have rarely seen this kind of positive word of mouth where people are so freaked out. It's actually never happened at this restaurant...

Reviews will be awful I'm sure...... but like someone earlier said...... the people who are going to spend 150 or more will not give a dang about the reviews....

BIG BUCKS WILL BE MADE for sure! As far as the Tony's go..... if it gets a few good reviews it might get tony's ... since Bloody Bloody and Scottsboro are closing the season is wide open again. Yikes!

[leefowler]

Posted: 12/1/10 at 3:01pm

If this show manages to get terrific reviews (which I think is a long shot) it will run 30 years.

[denali.fire]

Posted: 12/1/10 at 5:59pm

A chandelier and a helicopter will be introduced and the show will "fly" for more than 21 years.

[Mr Roxy]

Posted: 12/1/10 at 6:23pm

At the rate shows are closing, it may be the only thing running pretty soon.

[Trainwreck]

Posted: 12/1/10 at 7:10pm

Looks like the OP doesn't realize how much tourist traffic there is in Manhattan and that tourists want to see big spectacles like this, Lion King, and Wicked. Spider-Man will do well because the target demographic won't even know about (or care about) critic reviews.

And I think, from the looks of it, there could very well be Tony nominations for Scenic Design, Costume Design, and Lighting Design. Not all Tonys ride on the strength of the book and score

[leefowler]

Posted: 12/1/10 at 8:12pm

Good point, Trainwreck. That must be why Tarzan, The Little Mermaid, Shrek, and 9 to 5 are doing so well.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 12/1/10 at 8:18pm

And I think, from the looks of it, there could very well be Tony nominations for Scenic Design, Costume Design, and Lighting Design. Not all Tonys ride on the strength of the book and score.

Tell that to the designers of such recent shows as 9 to 5, The Pirate Queen, The Addams Family, and Young Frankenstein (nominated for set only). Those shows were beautifully designed in my opinion, but the shows themselves weren't that good. The negative reviews took the focus away from the parts of the shows that were well done.

[Amalia Balash]

Posted: 12/2/10 at 8:04am

I think it will follow a Young Frankenstein-like trajectory.

But however it does, I don't expect the show to recoup until the year 2525. If man is still alive. If woman can survive.

[themysteriousgrowl]

Posted: 12/2/10 at 8:34am

I predict the preview period will remain packed, and it's during that period that die-hard comic fans will see it and be unsatisfied, with little to no repeat customers from that demographic. Theater snobs may decide to catch previews for schadenfreude and so they can do firsthand-account bitching (also, to have a story for years to come), but once it opens and the reviewers officially get to it, theater snobs will not venture into Foxwoods.

That leaves casual NYC theatergoers, who cannot sustain a $65-million show, and tourists, who can. Kids will beg their parents, but if the score and story is really as incomprehensible as tweets and posts are making it sound and the stunts, while dazzling, comprise 5 minutes of the show, the tourist trade may bow to negative word-of-mouth and opt for more reliable fare like WICKED and LION KING and ADDAMS FAMILY. Lots of people go on about Spidey's wide appeal, and to an extent I agree with that.

What I think Spidey will not have, ironically, is legs.

[SNAFU]

Posted: 12/2/10 at 3:36pm

Julie Taymor will run with Sarah Palin on the 2012 ticket, win and ORDAIN that everyone in the US must go an see the show yearly. It will become law.
Over the years a religion will develop.People who are sick will be cured seeing Taymor's Spiderman:Turn Off The Dark. A new age of Spidey Awareness will dawn bringing peace and love to the world.

Or it will close a couple months after opening once the mixed to negative reviews come out.The people wanting to see the trainwreck will stop buying tickets. And someone will have a $65 million dpllar tax write off.

[themysteriousgrowl]

Posted: 12/2/10 at 4:02pm

You vulture.

[SNAFU]

Posted: 12/2/10 at 4:10pm

That's bitchy Theatre Queen to you!

[themysteriousgrowl]

Posted: 12/2/10 at 4:19pm

Well, it *was* kind of silly.

Hee hee. Just kidding. I love you!

[A Director]

Posted: 12/2/10 at 4:25pm

It will win the Pulitzer Prize and Theatre Queens will drop dead.

[TonyVincent]

Posted: 12/2/10 at 4:26pm

Similar to Shrek or Young Frankenstein, it'll run about a year.

Hard to see that it'll return anything to the investors with a $1mm weekly nut. I say it does 3-4 months at about 1.2 and about 6-8 just below a million before giving up and closing. I'm guessing Jan 4th, 2012.

[SNAFU]

Posted: 12/2/10 at 4:45pm

Tony, I think you are pretty on the money. Though I don't think it will make quite a full year. I say rumblings of it closing will start right after Labor Day.

[Mr Roxy]

Posted: 12/2/10 at 6:01pm

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