TONY Nomination Predictions- Page 3

[mikem]

Posted: 4/25/10 at 6:59pm

As always with the Tonys, deserving to be nominated is not really relevant.

I can't see a scenario in which John Gallagher doesn't get nominated for Best Actor. With American Idiot being the frontrunner for Best Musical and no other eligible leading actors/actresses for the show, I don't think he's going to get left out. Similarly, I can't see Sahr Ngaujah being left out. Hodge is also in, and the three spots left are going to some combination of Kimball, Grammer, Lane, and Hayes. I think it will be Hayes and Lane.

Unless Promises gets COMPLETELY trashed tonight, I think it will get nominated for Revival over Ragtime, just because it's open.

[showinoff]

Posted: 4/26/10 at 2:05pm

Sauja- Thanks for clearing that up.

I must admit that it annoys me that he is eligible for a nomination. Only performing 5 shows out of 8, and his performance schedule was unannounced for most of the run. Have they posted a schedule for him? Not that I feel that he is any less talented than other men mentioned for the leading man category. But fair is fair, and his stand-by should be nominated along him. That is just my two cents...

I feel that as much as I do not agree with all of the list, I think these will be the nominees:

Hodge, La Cage
Grammer, La Cage
Ngaujah, Fela!
Gallagher, American Idiot
Hanson, Night Music

If Hanson is not nominated, or canceled out by his fellow Brit. I think Hayes will be nominated.

Hodge is my pick to win.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 4/26/10 at 4:04pm

I really think Hayes is gonna take Hanson's slot.

[Sauja]

Posted: 4/26/10 at 4:13pm

I know the Outer Critics Circle are kind of wonky and also seem completely head over heels for Memphis, but it was still incredibly surprising to me to see Chad Kimball get in their list.

Brandon Victor Dixon The Scottsboro Boys
Sean Hayes Promises, Promises
Douglas Hodge La Cage aux Folles
Chad Kimball Memphis
Nathan Lane The Addams Family

No Ngaujah, Hanson, Grammer, Gallagher. The more I think about the category, the less I feel like I have any idea what's going to happen (except that Hodge is the number one lock and likely winner).

[showinoff]

Posted: 4/26/10 at 5:43pm

Shall be interesting to see....

[sundayclothes2]

Posted: 4/26/10 at 6:09pm

MUSICAL
American Idiot
Come Fly Away
Fela!
Memphis

PLAY
Enron
Next Fall
Red
Time Stands Still

MUSICAL REVIVAL
A Little Night Music
Finnian’s Rainbow
La Cage Aux Folles
Promises, Promises

PLAY REVIVAL
A View from the Bridge
Fences
Lend Me a Tenor
The Royal Family

ACTRESS MUSICAL
Sherrie Rene Scott – Everyday Rapture
Catherine Zeta Jones – A Little Night Music
Montego Glover – Memphis
Kate Baldwin – Finnian’s Rainbow
Barbara Cook - Sondheim on Sondheim

ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Douglas Hodge - La Cage Aux Folles
Nathan Lane - The Addams Family
Sahr Ngaujah - Fela!
John Gallagher Jr. - American Idiot
Sean Hayes – Promises, Promises

ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Laura Linney - Time Stands Still
Jan Maxwell - The Royal Family
Valarie Harper - Looped
Linda Lavin - Collected Stories
Carrie Fisher – Wishful Drinking


ACTOR IN A PLAY
Christopher Walken – A Behanding in Spokane
Alfred Molina - Red
Liev Schreiber – A View from the Bridge
Denzel Washington – Fences
Norbert Leo Butz – Enron

F. ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Angela Lansbury - A Little Night Music
Katie Finneran - Promises, Promises
Rebecca Naomi Jones - American Idiot
Lillias White - Fela!
Terry White - Finian's Rainbow


F. ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Christopher Fitzgerald - Finian’s Rainbow
Tony Vincent, American Idiot
Bobby Steggart - Ragtime
Robin de Jesus - La Cage
Levi Kreis - Million Dollar Quartet

F. ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Rosemary Harris - The Royal Family
Jan Maxwell - Lend Me a Tenor
Viola Davis - Fences
Alicia Silverstone - Time Stands Still
Scarlett Johanson - A View from the Bridge

F. ACTOR IN A PLAY
Brian d’Arcy James - Time Stands Still
Eddie Redmayne - Red
Tony Shalhoub - Lend Me A Tenor
Jon Michael Hill - Superior Donuts
Gregory Itzin - Enron

DIRECTOR/MUSICAL
Michael Mayer - American Idiot
Terry Johnson - La Cage Aux Folles
Bill T. Jones - Fela!
Christopher Ashley - Memphis

DIRECTOR/PLAY
Rupert Goold - Enron
Michael Grandage - Red
Daniel Sullivan - Time Stands Still
Stanley Tucci - Lend Me A Tenor

CHOREOGRAPHY
Sergio Trujillo - Memphis
Lynne Page - La Cage Aux Folles
Steven Hoggett - American Idiot
Twyla Tharp - Come Fly Away

BOOK OF A MUSICAL
Sherie Rene Scott and Dick Scanlan - Everyday Rapture
Joe DiPietro - Memphis
Marshall Brickman and Rick Elice - The Addams Family
Jim Lewis - Fela!

SCORE
Green Day - American Idiot
Adam Cork - Enron
Joe DiPietro and David Bryan - Memphis
Andrew Lippa - The Addams Family

[Justaguy2]

Posted: 4/28/10 at 11:51pm

For what it's worth here's a list of the new musicals based on their Stage Grade review average:

Fela! A-
Memphis B
Come Fly Away B
Million Dollar Quartet B
Sondheim on Sondheim B-
American Idiot B-
All About Me C
The Addams Family D+

Of course this doesn't include Everyday Rapture but based on this AI doesn't even get a nomination. I'm not convinced about Million Dollar Quartet so I could see MUSICAL being:

Fela
Memphis
Come Fly Away
Everyday Rapture (based on what people seem to be saying about it)

Not sure if they would actually snub AI but it may be possible.

[BroadwayBound115]

Posted: 4/29/10 at 12:23am

I am usually all gung-ho about Tony nomination predictions, but really the only thing I based it off of was the critics' reviews. Now critics are not eligible as Tony voters so I am not sure how many of the current Tony voters will agree with what the critics said. You may have 13 Tony voters who thought Addams Family was a lot better than what Ben Brantley thought and others might think that American Idiot was not as good as what was written in the newspapers. It is actually very frustrating, because I have no idea how nominations will turn out.

[adamgreer]

Posted: 4/29/10 at 12:39am

Critics were never members of the Nominating Committee, though. Their opinions had no affect on the nominees.

[BroadwayBound115]

Posted: 4/29/10 at 1:05am

oh stupid me, I am really tired right now. I am not thinking correctly. Time for bed.

[ljay889]

Posted: 4/29/10 at 1:20pm

Time Out NY posted their predictions, and they are HILARIOUS.
A ton of Brighton Beach Memoirs nominations. I thought they aren't even eligible?
A ton of Come Fly Away nominations. Abigal Breslin? Alicia Silverstone? Daniel Craig? Sam Rockwell? American Idiot for Best Book? BIZARRE.

http://www3.timeoutny.com/newyork/upstaged/2010/04/2010-tony-nominees-announced/

[TalkinLoud]

Posted: 4/29/10 at 1:22pm

I could see Daniel Craig being nominated. Would that really be such a huge shock? And I think Breslin and/or Silverstone could be suprirse noms.

[Wayman_Wong]

Posted: 4/29/10 at 1:29pm

GoldDerby.com just posted Tony nomination predictions by experts at Playbill, BackStage, NYTheatre, TheaterMania, etc.
GoldDerby.com: Experts predict Tony nominations

[theaterguy10]

Posted: 4/29/10 at 2:12pm

Those aren't meant to be predictions, ljay889. They're what Adam Feldman and David Cote would choose if they were the nominators.

[mikem]

Posted: 4/29/10 at 2:18pm

The Time Out New York listings are personal preferences, not predictions, which is why they are idiosyncratic. That being said, I don't think any of their picks are completely out of the question for an actual nomination.

The GoldDerby picks are interesting. I'm a little surprised that so many picked Race for a Best Play nominee, and none picked Behanding, which I think is more likely.

I'm also surprised that they all picked Jessica Hecht as Featured Actress in a Play -- I think it's far from a sure bet that Hecht and Johansson will both get in, and Johansson has much more star power.

[frogs_fan85]

Posted: 4/29/10 at 2:20pm

Best Actor in a Play this year is insane. I hope Spader gets nominated, but he might get lost in the shuffle against Molina, Schreiber, Butz, Walken, Law, Craig, Jackman, Washington and the men from Lend Me A Tenor.

[ljay889]

Posted: 4/29/10 at 2:59pm

"Those aren't meant to be predictions, ljay889. They're what Adam Feldman and David Cote would choose if they were the nominators."

My bad for reading it wrong!

[ljay889]

Posted: 4/29/10 at 2:59pm

. Updated On: 4/29/10 at 02:59 PM

[theatreguy]

Posted: 4/29/10 at 4:45pm

Time Out has just updated their picks (not predictions):

[NOTE: An earlier version of this article included several nominations for the short-lived Brighton Beach Memoirs. We have since learned that the show has been deemed ineligible, and have changed the nominations accordingly.]

http://www3.timeoutny.com/newyork/upstaged/2010/04/2010-tony-nominees-announced/#ixzz0mWYrX7W5
Updated On: 4/29/10 at 04:45 PM

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 4/29/10 at 6:15pm

Interesting/weird predictions. They actually predict that the Original Score category will be eliminated or not awarded. I wouldn't be surprised, especially if American Idiot is not eligible and/or doesn't petition for eligibility.

~Steven

[showinoff]

Posted: 4/29/10 at 8:35pm

Time Out really seemed to like Come Fly Away. I am glad that someone did. My personal feelings aside, I do not think it will be nominated, nor will the performers.

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 4/29/10 at 8:36pm

They think Twyla will be nominated for Direction. I just don't see it happening.

~Steven

[theatreguy]

Posted: 4/29/10 at 8:42pm

HeyMrMusic, those aren't predictions - it's who they think SHOULD be nominated.

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 4/29/10 at 8:59pm

Of course, silly me!

~Steven

[Wayman_Wong]

Posted: 4/30/10 at 10:46am

And here are Michael Riedel's Tony nomination predictions ...

Best Musical: 'Come Fly Away,' 'Fela!,' 'American Idiot' and 'Memphis.' ... Best Play: 'Red,' 'Next Fall,' 'Time Stands Still' and 'In the Next Room.' ... For more, click onto the link ...


N.Y. Post: Tony tip sheet reveals all Updated On: 4/30/10 at 10:46 AM