TONYS 2010: The Predix, They Are, A-Changing- Page 3

[ljay889]

Posted: 4/11/10 at 9:31pm

Kevin Chamberlin, The Addams Family,
Christopher Fitzgerald, Finian's Rainbow, Charlie Neshyaba-Hodges, Come Fly Away, Stark Sands, American Idiot

- Aaron Lazar is more likely than any of these performers.

"Leslie Kritzer, Sondheim on Sondheim, Krysta Rodriguez, The Addams Family, Carolee Carmello, The Addams Family, Jane Houdyshell, Bye Bye Birdie, Saycon Sengbloh, Fela!, Elizabeth Stanley, Million Dollar Quartet"

- And Erin Davie is more likely than any of these.


Updated On: 4/11/10 at 09:31 PM

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 4/11/10 at 9:57pm

Everyday Rapture
Sondheim on Sondheim
American Idiot
Fela! or Memphis

[jagfkb]

Posted: 4/11/10 at 10:03pm

Even with Addams Family getting mixed reviews (They were overall mixed, as overall they did find the actors and design elements redeeming of less than worthy material), my picks for nominations are as follows:
American Idiot
The Addams Family
Everyday Rapture (Now that it's been announced, I can't see it not being nominated)
and the final spot is now split between Fela (Due to critical praise, but lack of audience approval), Memphis (Due to mixed to positive critical reviews and a growing fanbase), and Million Dollar quartet (I don't know, if the reviews keep up, we could have (I cringe at saying it, as they're both horrible shows imo) another Jersey Boys)

Also, La Cage has Best Revival in the bag. No questions asked.

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 4/11/10 at 10:06pm

"also, La Cage has Best Revival in the bag. No questions asked"

Whoa, Nelly. Not so fast there. You're forgetting about a little something called NIGHT MUSIC.

[givesmevoice]

Posted: 4/11/10 at 10:13pm

^ it's a great show but a poorly directed production.

[ljay889]

Posted: 4/11/10 at 10:15pm

It is also one of the biggest hits of this season, and the show did not just win the Tony 5 year ago.

[adamgreer]

Posted: 4/11/10 at 10:16pm

This production of A Little Night Music (which is not even my favorite revival of the season) is leaps and bound better than this current production of La Cage Aux Folles.

[PiraguaGuy2]

Posted: 4/11/10 at 10:22pm

The final spot is now split between Fela (Due to critical praise, but lack of audience approval), Memphis (Due to mixed to positive critical reviews and a growing fanbase)

Do weekly occupancy percentages consistently in the high 80s and 90s signal "lack of audience approval" to you? Because, especially in contrast to the 60%-70%s that Memphis has been pulling, those seem like pretty damn high numbers for Fela. Certainly ones that far surpass Memphis' on a weekly basis.

Remember: just because a show's fanbase does not parade around BWW constantly does not mean that it can't find an audience.

[ljay889]

Posted: 4/11/10 at 10:24pm

Fela will absolutely be nominated for Best Musical.

[jagfkb]

Posted: 4/11/10 at 10:32pm

^To comment on the above, an example from this week's gorsses:

Memphis & Fela both did rather well, about 90% capacity for both of them. However, while they both had the same capacity, Memphis took in over $200,000 MORE that Fela. Also, 3,000 more people this past week saw Memphis than Fela. Furthermore, say Fela played 85% & Memphis played 65%. Considerring Memphis is in one of the largest theatres on Broadway, it's pulling equal if not better attendance than Fela each and every week. Perhaps Fela does have a fan base, certainly. Hoeweve,r you cannot deny the power of Memphis this season. In fact, if it does get nominated, I could see this being the dark horse which did. Granted it's not better than some of the other shows this season, but it's becoming highly marketable.

On another note: I absolutely adored Night Music; but La Cage is the better production hands down. Also, just because the show won 5 years ago does not mean it cannot win this year. A reminder: Best Revival odes not go to the best material, but the best production of that material. Case in point: 2009. West Side Story and Guys and Dolls (in terms of strictly material) are much stronger shows that Hair. However, Hair was the stronger production in the end. Thus, in terms of revivals, production transcends material.

And for the record, Ragtime deserves Best Revival, and was the best production of the season. No questions asked.

[PiraguaGuy2]

Posted: 4/11/10 at 10:45pm

Memphis & Fela both did rather well, about 90% capacity for both of them. However, while they both had the same capacity, Memphis took in over $200,000 MORE that Fela. Also, 3,000 more people this past week saw Memphis than Fela. Furthermore, say Fela played 85% & Memphis played 65%. Considerring Memphis is in one of the largest theatres on Broadway, it's pulling equal if not better attendance than Fela each and every week.

That whole post was one big huh? for me.
First off, you're looking at last week, which was a spring break week, not at all a proper indicator of a show's potential for success in a week when schools and workplaces AREN'T on break.
As you yourself stated, Memphis is playing to a larger house then Fela, so any comparison of seats sold is pointless. The number to look at is the "gross % of potential", which Fela is beating Memphis in by leaps and bounds week to week. I don't want to get into a whole debate here, but making the case that Fela has poor audience response is ridiculous. It's been pulling outstanding numbers for a show with no stars and no recognizable title or music, about an African funk legend of all things. Not to mention the Eugene O' Neill is in the ghetto of Broadway and doesn't do much to promote itself when the Shubert is parked right in Times Square and I haven't been in the area more than once in the past couple months without having Memphis flyers pushed at me.

This whole debate is moot. Fela has a much better chance than Memphis (although I believe both will be nominated - sayonara, Sondheim on Sondheim), even if Memphis has better numbers, because, well, Ben Brantley is a Tony voter but Ben Matusick from Long Island isn't. Not to say that good grosses don't help a show, but they are in no way an indicator of Tony success.

[ljay889]

Posted: 4/11/10 at 10:46pm

Ben Brantley is not a Tony voter this season. No member of the press is.

[Yankeefan007]

Posted: 4/11/10 at 10:49pm

Incidentally, Brantley has never been a Tony voter. It's against Times' policy.

[PiraguaGuy2]

Posted: 4/11/10 at 10:49pm

My bad. I misinterpreted this to mean that they would be reinstated THIS season:
Link

[PReeves2]

Posted: 4/11/10 at 10:54pm

news flash piragua...."opening night press" doesn't include most notable papers. how could it? most recently the reviews for Addams family were out before the curtain went up. how could ben brantley be at the show and get is review in before his paper, or any other paper of weight, go to press?

[theatreguy]

Posted: 4/11/10 at 10:59pm

If the opening night press doesn't include most notable papers, who do you think it DOES include?

[Yankeefan007]

Posted: 4/11/10 at 11:00pm

The phrase "first night press" goes back to when critics would go to the opening nights of shows and quickly file their reviews before deadline. The "first night press" of today is considered to be any member of the press that's invited to the last few previews.

The policy is still in effect in London, where the first show to ever have a 'critics preview' period was LEGALLY BLONDE. Updated On: 4/11/10 at 11:00 PM

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 4/12/10 at 1:17pm

I think COME FLY AWAY might get in over THE ADDAMS FAMILY, making the four musical nominees: AMERICAN IDIOT, COME FLY AWAY, EVERYDAY RAPTURE, and FELA!
I imagine SONDHEIM ON SONDHEIM might get in or that they'll nominate ADDAMS FAMILY anyways, but we'll see.
This is a really weak year for musicals. The musical acting categories are quite dull. And NIGHT MUSIC certainly doesn't deserve Best Revival, it can't compare to the much more interesting recent revivals of Sondheim shows, like the beautiful production of SUNDAY IN THE PARK WITH GEORGE a few years ago. I imagine it might win if only because LA CAGE won very recently, PROMISES PROMISES looks quite troubled, and the other shows are already closed.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 4/12/10 at 1:33pm

I really think LA CAGE is gonna win Best Revival. I think ALNM is gonna win for Lansbury. And that's it. But I did enjoy the production. It's just such a shame that RAGTIME, my favorite musical production of this Bway season, will most likely be forgotten and snubbed.

[Phantom of London]

Posted: 4/12/10 at 1:47pm

I am very confused with a lot of people on this thread and other Tony threads saying that 'Everyday Rapture' will get nominated. The show has not even been in preview yet!

[Yankeefan007]

Posted: 4/12/10 at 1:57pm

But it was Off-Broadway last year.

[jagfkb]

Posted: 4/12/10 at 2:32pm

^And on top of that won ridiculous amounts of rave reviews. If it doesn't get noimnated for Best Musical, I'll loose all hope for musical theatre.

[mybigsplash]

Posted: 4/12/10 at 2:36pm

If JERSEY BOYS and MAMMA MIA were not eligible for BEST SCORE, then how is anyone even considering AMERICAN IDIOT will be eligible??? Will not happen.

Also, If there are only 3 original scores on Broadway this year, then there will only be three in the category, I don't think they will include ENRON in best score, although it's a clever thought. And yes, I've seen the show, it has 3 full songs.

[Mister Matt]

Posted: 4/12/10 at 2:49pm

There's no such thing as a "lock".

[vfd88]

Posted: 4/12/10 at 2:57pm

"If JERSEY BOYS and MAMMA MIA were not eligible for BEST SCORE, then how is anyone even considering AMERICAN IDIOT will be eligible??? Will not happen."

Probably because the album was written as a rock opera, much like Tommy, which was nominated for, and won, Best Score.

But I do see what you mean. It does include some Green Day songs not from the American Idiot album.