TONYS 2010: The Predix, They Are, A-Changing

[PiraguaGuy2]

Posted: 4/1/10 at 9:34pm

BEST MUSICAL
LOCKS: American Idiot
PROBABLE: The Addams Family, Fela!
POSSIBLE: Everyday Rapture, Memphis, Sondheim on Sondheim
LEFT FIELD: Come Fly Away, Million Dollar Quartet

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
LOCKS: La Cage Aux Folles, A Little Night Music
PROBABLE: Finian's Rainbow, Promises, Promises
POSSIBLE: Ragtime

BEST DIRECTOR OF A MUSICAL
LOCKS: Terry Johnson, La Cage Aux Folles, Michael Mayer, American Idiot
PROBABLE: Rob Ashford, Promises, Promises, Bill T. Jones, Fela!
POSSIBLE: Julian Crouch/Phelim McDermott/Jerry Zaks?, The Addams Family, Trevor Nunn, A Little Night Music
LEFT FIELD: Warren Carlyle, Finian's Rainbow, James Lapine, Sondheim on Sondheim, Marcia Milgrom Dodge, Ragtime

BEST PLAY
LOCKS: Enron, Next Fall
PROBABLE: A Behanding in Spokane, Red, Time Stands Still
POSSIBLE: Race, A Steady Rain, Superior Donuts
LEFT FIELD: Wishful Drinking

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
LOCKS: A View From the Bridge, Lend Me a Tenor
PROBABLE: Fences, The Miracle Worker
POSSIBLE: Hamlet, The Royal Family
LEFT FIELD: Collected Stories, Oleanna

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
The Addams Family
Fela!
Everyday Rapture
Memphis

BEST SCORE OF A MUSICAL
The Addams Family
American Idiot
Memphis

BEST LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
LOCKS: Douglas Hodge, La Cage Aux Folles, Nathan Lane, The Addams Family
PROBABLE: Kelsey Grammar, La Cage Aux Folles, Saur Ngaujah, Fela!
POSSIBLE: John Gallagher, Jr., American Idiot, Sean Hayes, Promises, Promises, Alexander Hanson, A Little Night Music
LEFT FIELD: Barry Humphries, All About Me, Chad Kimball, Memphis, Jim Norton, Finian's Rainbow

BEST LEADING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
LOCKS: Kristin Chenoweth, Promises, Promises, Catherine Zeta-Jones, A Little Night Music, Sherie Rene Scott, Everyday Rapture
PROBABLE: Barbara Cook, Sondheim on Sondheim, Bebe Neuwirth, The Addams Family
POSSIBLE: Kate Baldwin, Finian's Rainbow, Montego Glover, Memphis
LEFT FIELD: Christiane Noll, Ragtime, Vanessa Williams, Sondheim on Sondheim

BEST LEADING ACTOR IN A PLAY
LOCKS: Liev Schreiber, A View from the Bridge, Christopher Walken, A Behanding in Spokane
PROBABLE: Jude Law, Hamlet, Alfred Molina, Red, Tony Shalhoub, Lend Me a Tenor, Denzel Washington, Fences
POSSIBLE: Patrick Breen, Next Fall, Norbert Leo Butz, Enron
LEFT FIELD: Justin Bartha, Lend Me a Tenor, Bill Pullman, Oleanna

BEST LEADING ACTRESS IN A PLAY
LOCKS: Valerie Harper, Looped, Laura Linney, Time Stands Still, Allison Pill, The Miracle Worker
PROBABLE: Abigail Breslin, The Miracle Worker, Jan Maxwell, The Royal Family
LEFT FIELD: Carrie Fisher, Wishful Drinking, Linda Lavin, Collected Stories

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
LOCKS: Kevin Chamberlin, The Addams Family, Tony Vincent, American Idiot
PROBABLE: Christopher Fitzgerald, Finian's Rainbow, Dick Latessa, Promises, Promises, Charlie Neshyaba-Hodges, Come Fly Away
POSSIBLE: Fred Applegate, La Cage aux Folles, Aaron Lazar, A Little Night Music, Bobby Steggert, Ragtime
LEFT FIELD: Terrence Mann, The Addams Family, Stark Sands, American Idiot, Someone from Million Dollar Quartet

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
LOCKS: Angela Lansbury, A Little Night Music
PROBABLE: Holley Farmer, Come Fly Away, Katie Finneran, Promises, Promises, Rebecca Naomi Jones, American Idiot, Krysta Rodriguez, The Addams Family
POSSIBLE: Jackie Hoffman, The Addams Family, Leslie Kritzer, Sondheim on Sondheim, Lillias White, Fela!
LEFT FIELD: Carolee Carmello, The Addams Family, Jane Houdyshell, Bye Bye Birdie, Saycon Sengbloh, Fela!, Elizabeth Stanley, Million Dollar Quartet

Updated On: 4/1/10 at 09:34 PM

[ljay889]

Posted: 4/1/10 at 9:42pm

Having seen both of them, Chamberlin and Vincent are in no way locks in that category.

[adamgreer]

Posted: 4/1/10 at 9:44pm

How can you call Denzel Washington a lock at this point? Not one single person has seen his performance in Fences, and his last Broadway outing was not well received.

He is far from a lock.

Having seen both of them, Chamberlin and Vincent are in no way locks in that category.

I agree. There really are no locks in that category at this point. No featured performance by a male has jumped out at me just yet. Updated On: 4/1/10 at 09:44 PM

[AndAllThatJazz22]

Posted: 4/1/10 at 9:49pm

Has it been confirmed as to whether or not that American Idiot will even qualify for best score?

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 4/1/10 at 10:13pm

Nope.

[Wayman_Wong]

Posted: 4/1/10 at 10:26pm

I enjoy speculation as much as the next Tony Awards junkie, but it seems premature, if not downright silly, to declare certain performances 'locks' when no one has even seen them. What's the rush?

[AC126748]

Posted: 4/1/10 at 10:31pm

Valerie Harper and Alison Pill are "locks" but Laura Linney (who will win) is only "probable"? This is an April Fools' joke, right?

[jagfkb]

Posted: 4/1/10 at 10:34pm

IMO:
Best Musical:
American Idiot (Winner)
Addams Family
Everyday Rapture
Memphis
Think about it, just like 2007. There's the edgy rock musical, the off-beat off-broadway show that did due to it's lead actress, the anticipated big budget musical with excellent design & promise, and the critically mixed, audience praised lucky to be nominated show. However, it all depends on how Memphis starts marketing itself as Tony season comes, who knows, Fela or Come fly Away could sneak in there.

Best Revival of a Musical:
La Cage Aux Folles (Winner)
A Little Night Music (Dark Horse)
Promises, Promises
Ragtime
Yeah, that's right, I think Ragtime will get nominated. So what? Either this or Finian's, and I think Ragtime is the one which will.

Best Play:
Enron (Winner)
Next Fall (Dark Horse)
Race
Red

Best Play Revival:
Lend Me a Tenor (Winner)
A View From the Bridge
Fences
The Miracle Worker
Though AVFTB was greatly lauded, Fences has undeniable star power, and Miracle Worker... was there, Lend Me a Tenor will be running during Tony season, and is the rare mix of star power (just ask around any office, everyone wants to see it) with a great production.

Best Book:
Everyday Rapture (Winner)
Addams Family (Dark Horse)
Fela
Memphis
Since this & actress would make up for ER not getting Best Musical, I'm betting on a Sherie-dual-win Tony night.

Best Score:
American Idiot (If eligible, Winner)
The Addams Family (If AI not eligible, Winner)
Memphis (Dark Horse)
Enron
If eligible, American Idiot WILL WIN SCORE. Period. Also, since we finally have a season where there are less that four shows with an eligible score, expect to finally see some plays enter the mix. Enron is the most likely due to it's blend of dance & drama.

Best Director:
Michael Mayer (American Idiot Winner)
Michael Mayer (Everyday Rapture Dark Horse)
Bill T. Jones
Marcia Milgrom Dodge (EXTREME DARK HORSE)

[aspiringactress]

Posted: 4/1/10 at 10:37pm

You think Behanding is more likely than Time Stands Still?

Really?

[PiraguaGuy2]

Posted: 4/1/10 at 10:40pm

Enron will not be nominated for Score.

Michael Mayer will not be nominated twice.

And I stand by all of my predictions. Time Stands Still has ALREADY CLOSED and while I think it certainly has very good chances, you can't underestimate the softened impact of a show that closes before Tony talk revs up.

Updated On: 4/1/10 at 10:40 PM

[bjh2114]

Posted: 4/1/10 at 10:41pm

Those predictions are inane.

[Sauja]

Posted: 4/1/10 at 10:42pm

I think Fela's more likely to get into musical than Everyday Rapture or Memphis. Especially Memphis. Depending on how significant revisions are, I wouldn't be surprised if Sondheim knocked one of them out either.

And I just can't imagine that more than one dancer max. from Come Fly Away will get in, especially since there's so much competition in the featured categories.

[ljay889]

Posted: 4/1/10 at 10:43pm

"Time Stands Still is closing VERY soon"

It closed already.

Fela! will most certainly be nominated for Best Musical.

[givesmevoice]

Posted: 4/1/10 at 10:44pm

I think A Little Night Music will be nominated, but the show I saw was in no way deserving a Tony for Best Revival.

[adamgreer]

Posted: 4/1/10 at 10:59pm

I think Fela's more likely to get into musical than Everyday Rapture or Memphis. Especially Memphis.

Fela is absolutely getting nominated for Best Musical, a category that will most likely be made up of The Addams Family, American Idiot, Everyday Rapture, and Fela. If The Addams Family gets completely horrible reviews, Sondheim on Sondheim could very well get nominated instead.
Updated On: 5/4/10 at 10:59 PM

[Drunk Chita Rivera]

Posted: 4/1/10 at 11:23pm

Do you think Bobby Steggert had pretty good chances? By the looks of the rest of that list he seems to be the best.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 4/1/10 at 11:51pm

Bobby Steggert will probably be nominated, but it is very unlikely that he'll win. If we are talking featured actors from closed musicals, I think Chris Fitzgerald has a better shot.

[CurtainPullDowner]

Posted: 4/2/10 at 12:09am

If Sherie gets a "book" and Actress nod, and she should.
The voters can vote for her as book writer and vote for the legendary Barbara Cook,
Attention Must Be Paid!

I will calm down.
I actually think MEMPHIS could get best score.
AMERICAN IDIOT would probably have not even gotten to Broadway without pushing and getting a best score nom and quite possible win.
After reading that first list, it's really a year of great performances and plays with a few to come.

And I think there are omissions in most categories.

[BwayBaby18]

Posted: 4/2/10 at 12:14am

Is Enron considered a play or musical?

[adamgreer]

Posted: 4/2/10 at 12:15am

Is Enron considered a play or musical?

A play.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 4/2/10 at 12:30am

In all seriousness, I think Red should get Best Score. The original music that Adam Cork wrote for the play is gorgeous!

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 4/2/10 at 12:57am

The music in RED was one of the things I liked most about it.

[AC126748]

Posted: 4/2/10 at 10:20am

And I stand by all of my predictions. Time Stands Still has ALREADY CLOSED and while I think it certainly has very good chances, you can't underestimate the softened impact of a show that closes before Tony talk revs up.

In the past decade alone, plenty of already-closed plays have been nominated over currently running shows. To name just a few: ANNA IN THE TROPICS, THE RETREAT FROM MOSCOW, RABBIT HOLE, DEMOCRACY, GEM OF THE OCEAN, THE COAST OF UTOPIA (winner), THE LITTLE DOG LAUGHED, ROCK N ROLL, THE SEAFARER, DIVIDING THE ESTATE.

Again, just in this decade, Michele Pawk, Cynthia Nixon, Jim Norton, Jennifer Ehle, Julie White, and Billy Crudup have all won for shows that had already closed.

I'd posit that a show closing isn't really that big of a deal at the Tonys. If a performance, or a show, is truly memorable, it is usually rewarded come nomination time. Julie White beat four other actresses for her Tony, three of whom were still in plays still running, even though her show had been closed for four months. Swoosie Kurtz, also nominated that year, was remembered in May 2007 for a play that closed in December 2006. The year Michele Pawk won Best Featured Actress, four of the five nominees were all from plays that had been closed for at least four months by the time of the ceremony.

[sowren1020]

Posted: 4/2/10 at 10:40am

One of the best aspects of this Broadwayworld.com thread is that you get people like AC126748 who contribute relevant facts, such as who or what play have Tonys when show have closed. In the shows that have actually opened this season, it's still very much a horse race in the musical leading actor and actress category. And I'll posit that the complete characters that were performed in RAGTIME still have more resonance than the other characters portrayed in FINIAN'S RAINBOW, MEMPHIS, OR A LITTLE NIGHT MUSIC. The complexities in the RAGTIME portrayals brought by Bobby Steggert, Christiane Knoll and Robert Petkoff are the performances that were the most moving in a musical this season, here's to their nominations!

[Drunk Chita Rivera]

Posted: 4/2/10 at 10:48am

If only Ragtime had opened in March or April... The Tonys would be much different.