The Hollywood Reporter's Who will win and Who should win

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/tonys-who-should-win-who-799143

They are Hollywood based. This might serve as a clue.

Updated On: 6/2/15 at 07:43 PM

With the exceptions of Best Lead Actor in a Musical and Best Featured Actress in a Play, I actually agree with their predictions. I just see Michael Cerveris and Annaleigh Ashford walking away with trophies. 

Karl has certainly been working in New York for quite a while, but I would say he didn't really break out in a meaningful way until Legally Blonde, which was his first time originating a role on Broadway.

Thanks, Kad.  I never saw "Legally Blonde."  (Which would have been 2007.)

Updated On: 6/2/15 at 08:23 PM

I completely overlooked that part about Cerveris. How anyone saw something other than the incredibly nuanced and layered character he created, I'll never understand. It's almost as bad as Elisabeth Vincentelli referring to Fun Home's score as "beige."  

 I think what Rooney meant by "demonstrative" is "showy," which often goes a long way in awards season.  While I wouldn't mind seeing d'Arcy James recognized for yet another terrific performance, I'm keeping my money on Cerveris for his sublimely understated, still-waters-run-deep performance. Showy is somewhat easier with the right material (you're welcome, Brad Oscar) but what Cerveris brings to Fun Home is extraordinary in its simplicity and honesty.

I don't know about Feinberg but Rooney is NY based.

"I actually thought he bordered on over acting when I saw him.  He was by far the weakest link in the cast for me.  I thought the women fared much better."

 He was, far and away, my least favorite part of that cast. I was kind of disappointed. 

Taz-I think he's actually right about Kuhn winning and the logic is solid. Lucas could win but I think Kuhn will ultimately. 

I do think Annaleigh Ashford will win featured actress in a play, though. I also think actor in a musical is much more about Cerveris and Fairchild with James behind them. 

I'm surprised THR would buy into the fallacy that having a co-star nominated in your category causes "vote-splitting". What causes vote-splitting is having other nominees in the category period. They all siphon votes from one another. In the past eleven years alone, the following actors have won Tonys when they had a co-star in their category:

Audra McDonald

Billy Crudup

Jennifer Ehle

Norbert Leo Butz

Liev Schreiber

Adriane Lenox

Idina Menzel

Michael Cerveris

Billy Porter

Douglas Hodge

Marcia Gay Harden

Gregory Jbara

Deanna Dunagan

Jim Norton

Mark Rylance

Sophie Okonedo

Updated On: 6/3/15 at 08:14 AM

They clearly don't understand, in their arguments, that "Fun Home" was not eligible for the precursor awards this season.

I would further argue that the Tonys have no precursors at all anyway--for the reason you state, that the eligibility is often different so the nominee lists are often apples and oranges. Also, there is almost zero overlap in the voting bodies. Unlike, say, the SAG awards, where there is some real overlap in voters with the Emmys and Oscars.