The Over/Under on how long DEH will run — Page 4

I think DEH will surpass 5 years but I think it's a bit odd to compare it with Beautiful given how DEH is not a jukebox musical of a famous songwriter/singer.

Im guessing 6-7 years right now. Its still on its first year of touring as well, once it hits the secondary touring market we'll have to see if their sales continue to fall a little bit. Right now its selling very well, in a small theatre, and continue's from what I hear at least to have great word of mouth, we will have to see! 

Assuming the show can continue grossing $1M+ a week, I don't see it going anywhere any time soon. It's a small-cast show that's not dependent on stars, in a nice-sized theater that's easy to sell out. There still seems to be a lot of demand for it, as it's rarely ever on TKTS (and when it is, only at a 20-30% discount) and there are no discount codes for it.

Updated On: 1/14/19 at 02:21 PM

I am still thinking at least 7 years.  After 27(?) months, it is still difficult to get tickets and to date has sold-out consistently.  That was definitely not the case by now with Kinky Boots of Beautiful (both of which had plenty of non-sellout weeks in their second year, filling 94% and 93.2% of their seats for the year; for that matter, Chicago only filled 97% of its seats in its second year.

I don't know if there is a backlash; I only know that 27 months of consistent sellouts is pretty impressive.  I also suspect that, with its small cast and orchestra, it will be able to run for years at half its current gross and still make a profit.  

The only reason I hedge at only 7 is because I do wonder whether its seriousness will work against it longer into its run, when a more significant portion of the revenue traditionally comes from tourists, who may not want to see it in the same way they want to see other, bigger or more fun shows (a la Lion King, Wicked, Phantom, Chicago and others).