The Over/Under on how long DEH will run- Page 4

[Wick3]

Posted: 1/14/19 at 11:39am

I think DEH will surpass 5 years but I think it's a bit odd to compare it with Beautiful given how DEH is not a jukebox musical of a famous songwriter/singer.

[RaisedOnMusicals]

Posted: 1/14/19 at 1:10pm

Wick3 said: "I think DEH will surpass 5 years but I think it's a bit odd to compare it with Beautiful given how DEH is not a jukebox musical of a famous songwriter/singer."

I wasn't intending to compare them at all. It was only the fact that "Beautiful" just celebrated its fifth anniversary that reminded me that I might want to re-set the over/under number. And I'm with you--at this point I'll take the over.

 

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 1/14/19 at 1:41pm

Im guessing 6-7 years right now. Its still on its first year of touring as well, once it hits the secondary touring market we'll have to see if their sales continue to fall a little bit. Right now its selling very well, in a small theatre, and continue's from what I hear at least to have great word of mouth, we will have to see! 

[ggersten]

Posted: 1/14/19 at 1:50pm

Since 2000, Best Musical winners number of performances:  Not that this has anything to do with anything :

The Producers 2502 

Thoroughly Modern Millie 903

Hairspray 2642

Avenue Q 2534

Spamalot 1575

Jersey Boys 4642

Spring Awakening 859

In The Heights 1184

Billy Elliot 1312

Memphis 1165

Book of Mormon 3260 and counting

Once 1168

Kinky Boots 2401 but maybe 100 more?

Gentlemans Guide 905

Fun Home 583

Hamilton 1429 and counting

Evan Hansen at 873 and counting

 

[LarryD2]

Posted: 1/14/19 at 2:21pm

Assuming the show can continue grossing $1M+ a week, I don't see it going anywhere any time soon. It's a small-cast show that's not dependent on stars, in a nice-sized theater that's easy to sell out. There still seems to be a lot of demand for it, as it's rarely ever on TKTS (and when it is, only at a 20-30% discount) and there are no discount codes for it.

Updated On: 1/14/19 at 02:21 PM

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 1/14/19 at 2:27pm

I would say at least 2500 performances for this show based on that statistic. 

[Jarethan]

Posted: 1/14/19 at 6:44pm

I am still thinking at least 7 years.  After 27(?) months, it is still difficult to get tickets and to date has sold-out consistently.  That was definitely not the case by now with Kinky Boots of Beautiful (both of which had plenty of non-sellout weeks in their second year, filling 94% and 93.2% of their seats for the year; for that matter, Chicago only filled 97% of its seats in its second year.

I don't know if there is a backlash; I only know that 27 months of consistent sellouts is pretty impressive.  I also suspect that, with its small cast and orchestra, it will be able to run for years at half its current gross and still make a profit.  

The only reason I hedge at only 7 is because I do wonder whether its seriousness will work against it longer into its run, when a more significant portion of the revenue traditionally comes from tourists, who may not want to see it in the same way they want to see other, bigger or more fun shows (a la Lion King, Wicked, Phantom, Chicago and others).