The Over/Under on how long DEH will run

Idk, we'll have to see how the show does post-Platt. It'll probably do really well though.

I'll take the under. Once Platt leaves, I think the enthusiasm will slowly start to fall off over the next 12-18 months. I don't think it hits 3 years.

UncleCharlie said: "I'll take the under. Once Platt leaves, I think the enthusiasm will slowly start to fall off over the next 12-18 months. I don't think it hits 3 years."

Yep.

Call_me_jorge said: "I think it will add 6 months to what next to normal achieved."

I know that DEH has been compared to Next To Normal by some here in the past, but such comparison is patently absurd. The only commonality is the director. N2N was not a financial success in any way whatsoever. It continually grossed between $250,000-300,000 per week, and never came close to selling out in any given week. Not once.In fact, in most weeks it did less than 50% of capacity.

I'm taking the over because to me it seems as if this show has become the must see show for teens of both sexes, much as Wicked was the must see show for teenage girls. So that's a constantly replenishing audience. In addition, I've spoken to so many people who have seen the show ranging in age from teens to those in their mid 70's, and like it or not, the show touches people emotionally across every demographic. So unlike other shows that are truly geared towards teens, this show seems to resonate emotionally with people of all ages, which will keep the word of mouth very postive.

It's reasonable to predict that the demand for the show will decrease after Platt leaves, but I don't think it will. There hasn't been a sign of that happening yet, and I think that the show is the show no matter who stars in it. So yes, unlike some (many) here, I do think that the show has become a cultural phenomenon and that's why I'm taking the over 1500 performance "wager". But who knows? The show might close in a year. I just don't think it will.

Alex Kulak2 said: "I'm going to bet an even 2000"

So you're betting the over. :) (Meaning over 1500 which is the over/under number)

rodrigo_ca said: "I think Ill take the under. Perhaps 5+ years, but it will not hit 10."

Me thinks you don't know how over/under works.

I think it will be over 1500 performances.

One driving factor here will be student groups (ranging from middle school to college) who will make a NYC trip and watch this show.

I'll definitely take over.

I think locals want to see Ben - but I think for most tourists the show is going to be the draw. It has broken thru to mainstream America the way few shows do.

Under as well. I think it'll close by the end of next year

I think that bar is off by 100%. I give it 3000 minimum.

Beyond the fact that it is clearly selling well after Platt leaves, It is also relevant that this is a small show. I am guessing that it has a low weekly nut and will be able to take advantage of that for years, a la Chicago. (Let's face it, Chicago would have closed years ago if it didn't have such a low breakeven). Why would Evan Hansen's be any more...it has a smaller cast, I assume the orchestra is probably similar sized, etc.

More importantly, the passion around this show exceeds anything I can ever recall, other than Hamilton and, possibly, A Chorus Line. (IMO, Lion King, Phantom, and Wicked are humungous hits, and legions have loved every one of those shows, but passion is a whole other dimension. Other than teenage girls for Wicked, I think the degree of passion around Evan Hansen far exceeds those shows).

I am 66 and the number of people I know who are in my age group and think it is one of the best shows they have ever seen is staggering. The millennials see themselves and their issues in DEH, even if they are not all outsiders to the extent that Evan is; older people see (in addition to a well written show with a great score) their children and challenges they faced when they were growing up. I could build a long, boring defense that that emotional pull is even more significant than for Millennials.

Re losing ground after Platt leaves, I say 'bologna'. Ben Platt is replaceable, just as Carol Channing was replaceable, and Zero Mostel was replaceable, and more recently Idina Menzel and Kristin Chenoweth in Wicked, etc. When stars of musicals have not been replaceable, it has generally been either because they were so famous that people couldn't fathom seeing it without them (which I am sure is one of Scott Rudin's worries since, somewhere along the way seeing Dolly became almost exclusively about seeing Bette Midler rather than seeing Hello Dolly); or the show was not any good (or at least not as good as the star) and the star was the only thing keeping it opened in the first place (e.g., The Boy From Oz or If/Then). (I am consciously excluding shows that were running out of steam when the stars left...the downward curve was already in place).

They were NEVER the hits that Evan Hansen is. Comparison is absurd.

I'll take over. It can last for 3 1/2 years easily, possibly getting up to 4 or 5. Obviously, DEH is not Hamilton and will never be, but DEH is most similar to BOM or Matilda in recent years (in terms of word of mouth, awards, and possible run time)