The Over/Under on how long DEH will run- Page 2

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 9/28/17 at 8:52pm

I predict people are generally underestimating how sharp a decline we'll see once Platt leaves in a month and a half. I honestly think a tremendous amount of sales are riding on him being in the role.

So, I'll take the under.

[michaelhale]

Posted: 9/29/17 at 12:16am

I'd bet over. I reallt don't think the show needs Ben Platt, but a good Evan, and Platt is not the only good Evan out there. As long as they keep up with some good Evans word of mouth will remain a strong draw for the show.

[Jarethan]

Posted: 9/29/17 at 12:55am

Itonlytakesajourney said: "I'll take over. It can last for 3 1/2 years easily, possiblygetting up to 4 or 5.Obviously, DEH is not Hamilton and will never be, but DEH is most similar to BOM or Matilda in recent years (in terms of word of mouth, awards, and possible run time)"

Matilda was never the 'must see' that DEH is.  I don't think the comparison works,although the BOM one might be right.

[michaelhale]

Posted: 9/29/17 at 2:07am

Jarethan said: "Itonlytakesajourney said: "I'll take over. It can last for 3 1/2 years easily, possiblygetting up to 4 or 5.Obviously, DEH is not Hamilton and will never be, but DEH is most similar to BOM or Matilda in recent years (in terms of word of mouth, awards, and possible run time)"

Matilda was never the 'must see' that DEH is. I don't think the comparison works,although the BOM one might be right."

BoM definitely feels like a good comparison- how were Rannells and Gad talked about when the show began, though- were either perceived as as essential as Platt is being perceived right now for DEH? Since I really think that's the driving factor that's leading everyone's bets. 

[froote]

Posted: 9/29/17 at 7:43am

Under. As soon as there's a new trendy show, this one is done. And yeah the Ben Platt decline will be real. This show doesn't feel as big as BOM was to me and certainly the success of that show had little to do with Rannells and Gad.

Updated On: 9/29/17 at 07:43 AM

[n2nbaby]

Posted: 9/29/17 at 9:09am

How has nobody correctly the poster who claimed "Next to Normal was not a financial success?" Haha It recouped and is well respected by theatre fans and reviewers alike. It was a hit.

[RaisedOnMusicals]

Posted: 9/29/17 at 9:21am

n2nbaby said: "How has nobody correctly the poster who claimed "Next to Normal was not a financial success?" Haha It recouped and is well respected by theatre fans and reviewers alike. It was a hit."

Yes, I stand corrected, at least in part. The show did recoup in about a year ( the cap was only $4 million) but it wasn't ever selling out week after week either. It never had a week where it grossed more than 100% of capacity. Here are all the numbers:

 

https://www.broadwayleague.com/research/grosses-broadway-nyc/#weekly_grosses

So bottom line, I still don't think a comparison to DEH is apt  

 

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 1/15/18 at 6:28pm

NVM

Updated On: 1/15/18 at 06:28 PM

[poisonivy2]

Posted: 1/15/18 at 7:27pm

Over. The show has recouped its investment. Evan is a meaty role that a lot of young musical theater actors will want to try. As long as it's not losing money (and it's not an expensive show to run) it will keep running. 

[Br0adway]

Posted: 1/15/18 at 7:43pm

I can argue for both but I’m saying under.

I most definitely saw the show in October for Ben Platt. After hearing and watching his performances on youtube, I had to see him so I paid for an overpriced ticket off StubHub and made my way to NYC. If Ben Platt happens to go back to the show or tours, I would spend the money to see Ben Platt one more time as Evan.

I think I read that Noah Galvin’s run is sold out (possibly sold out because of not knowing Platt’s end date so it’s toll over from that), but I don’t think people are rushing to get tickets for the show like they once were.

[RaisedOnMusicals]

Posted: 1/15/18 at 8:56pm

Br0adway said: "I can argue for both but I’m saying under.

I most definitely saw the show in October for Ben Platt. After hearing and watching his performances on youtube, I had to see him so I paid for an overpriced ticket off StubHub and made my way to NYC. If Ben Platt happens to go back to the show or tours, I would spend the money to see Ben Platt one more time as Evan.

I think I read that Noah Galvin’s run is sold out (possibly sold out because of not knowing Platt’s end date so it’s toll over from that), but I don’t think people are rushing to get tickets for the show like they once were."

Actually, judging from how sold the show is on random dates in September and October I think the facts seem to indicate that indeed people ARE rushing to get tickets and they’re selling at high ticket prices. 

 

[ethan231h]

Posted: 1/15/18 at 9:58pm

Br0adway said: "I can argue for both but I’m saying under.

I most definitely saw the show in October for Ben Platt. After hearing and watching his performances on youtube, I had to see him so I paid for an overpriced ticket off StubHub and made my way to NYC. If Ben Platt happens to go back to the show or tours, I would spend the money to see Ben Platt one more time as Evan.

I think I read that Noah Galvin’s run is sold out (possibly sold out because of not knowing Platt’s end date so it’s toll over from that), but I don’t think people are rushing to get tickets for the show like they once were."

I dont know what age range you are in, but I know for me and my young adult people.....MANY people between the ages of 13-29 are still wanting tickets, and going back.

[dearalanaaaa]

Posted: 1/15/18 at 10:01pm

Over (by little) or exact. I hope Dear Evan Hansen and Come From Away fizzle out around the same time, I had seen the show back in June and even though I loved Ben and the cast, I think once most the OBC leaves in 2019 or May there will not be much left. If Alexis Molnar comes back to the show, I might see it again, or on Mike Faist's final week, but other than that I wouldn't come back. The fact that the Twitter and Instagram fandom of teens from across North America and the UK might keep this running while ignoring the inaccuracies of the plot will take this show into 2020 would shock me.

[michaelhale]

Posted: 1/15/18 at 10:21pm

Br0adway said: "
I think I read that Noah Galvin’s run is sold out (possibly sold out because of not knowing Platt’s end date so it’s toll over from that), but I don’t think people are rushing to get tickets for the show like they once were. "

There were tickets still from $135 through Noah's run when I bought tickets in the start of September after Ben's departure announcement and then by Mid-November it was all sold out through the entire run, so the tickets were still hot even then. It does seem to of have slowed down now, though. Trensch's first week has limited availability but is not sold out.

[Liza's Headband]

Posted: 1/15/18 at 10:30pm

Except that you're all forgetting two very important things: 

1.) The show has recouped; and

2.) The weekly running cost is extremely low for a musical.

The easy answer is "over" when factoring in the above... 

[RippedMan]

Posted: 1/15/18 at 11:00pm

Having finally seeing the show, I don't get it. Most of the songs sound the same. The direction is boring. The design is boring. The acting/singing is great, but it's Broadway. I don't get it. The story sucks. He's an awful person - surrounded by awful friends and people - and the moral is basically "if you lie, and it helps people, that's okay." I don't understand why people are flocking to it? I mean, it's got a catchy score, so I'll give them that, but they're all singing "We Will Be Found," but all of them are desperately trying to fit in? So what's the point.

[michaelhale]

Posted: 1/15/18 at 11:08pm

RippedMan said: "Having finally seeing the show, I don't get it. Most of the songs sound the same. The direction is boring. The design is boring. The acting/singing is great, but it's Broadway. I don't get it. The story sucks. He's an awful person - surrounded by awful friends and people - and the moral is basically "if you lie, and it helps people, that's okay." I don't understand why people are flocking to it? I mean, it's got a catchy score, so I'll give them that, but they're all singing "We Will Be Found," but all of them are desperately trying to fit in? So what's the point."

To me the point of the story is how there is no bad person/good person dichotomy. Everyone's got both, and you just have to keep pushing on and trying better. So if you want to read it as "he's a bad person," then yeah I think you're not going to enjoy the show because that's against what it's saying, to me. Be that on you or on the writing, the difference between your lack of enjoyment vs the enjoyment of others who see this show can just lie simply in how everyone is reading it.

A lot of people just enjoy it for the performances, though. Not every story has to have some profound meaning and sometimes it's just a story, and Dear Evan Hansen is a story told with some great performances, regardless of how you read the plot/characters.

[michaelhale]

Posted: 1/15/18 at 11:11pm

Liza's Headband said: "Except that you're all forgetting two very important things:

1.) The show has recouped; and

2.) The weekly running cost is extremely low for a musical.

The easy answer is "over" when factoring in the above..."

Yeah, definitely. The show would have to fall hard to close due to sales alone. I would think it would be an easy show to stunt cast really well too, even if things do get rocky a couple years down the line. 3.5 years should be easy.

[RaisedOnMusicals]

Posted: 5/21/18 at 5:52pm

Given that this was posted back in September, well before Ben left the cast, we now have new data. The box office seems not to have suffered at all as a result of his departure. So, just for fun, let’s revise the over under to 2000 performances. 

You want the under or the over?

[Matt Rogers]

Posted: 5/21/18 at 6:33pm

It is slightly hysterical reading the old comments from the naysayers on this newly resurrected thread. Ben left. It's still a super hot ticket that shows no signs of stopping. No discount codes. Never on TKTS. Always selling out. The person who predicted it would close by the end of 2018 was highly mistaken, as were all the know it alls predicting the show's demise post-Ben. This show is going to run for years to come.

[Impossible2]

Posted: 5/21/18 at 6:45pm

It'll run until the writer of Worlds Greatest Dad happens to stumble upon it and sues them for plagiarism and closes it down...

[bear88]

Posted: 5/22/18 at 2:39am

Once again, I will stick with the over. 

The popularity of the show, small size of the theater, lack of competition for a musical that appeals to teenagers and their parents, and the ticket scarcity have all worked in its favor. That won't last forever, but even the tour probably won't make much of a dent.

I still would be a little surprised if it lasts more than a decade, though. 

[broadwaysfguy]

Posted: 5/22/18 at 9:32am

i was thinking about the naysayers when i saw the show twice with taylor at the end of february....and also when i tried to get tix last week and it was completely sold out

ill go with the over on 2000 performances easily and
also the over for 4000 performances. this is a gem of a show that will be relevant a long long time

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 5/22/18 at 10:45am

When this season's hits MEAN GIRLS and THE BAND'S VISIT close, DEH will still be running. Will COME FROM AWAY still be running? Hard to tell.

Fun fact: A BRONX TALE has (currently) played more performances than DEH.

[RaisedOnMusicals]

Posted: 5/22/18 at 10:48am

SomethingPeculiar said: "When this season's hits MEAN GIRLS and THE BAND'S VISIT close, DEH will still be running. Will COME FROM AWAY still be running? Hard to tell.

Fun fact: A BRONX TALE has (currently)played more performances than DEH."

So has Chicago.