The Over/Under on how long DEH will run — Page 2

I predict people are generally underestimating how sharp a decline we'll see once Platt leaves in a month and a half. I honestly think a tremendous amount of sales are riding on him being in the role.

So, I'll take the under.

Itonlytakesajourney said: "I'll take over. It can last for 3 1/2 years easily, possiblygetting up to 4 or 5.Obviously, DEH is not Hamilton and will never be, but DEH is most similar to BOM or Matilda in recent years (in terms of word of mouth, awards, and possible run time)"

Matilda was never the 'must see' that DEH is. I don't think the comparison works,although the BOM one might be right.

Under. As soon as there's a new trendy show, this one is done. And yeah the Ben Platt decline will be real. This show doesn't feel as big as BOM was to me and certainly the success of that show had little to do with Rannells and Gad.

Updated On: 9/29/17 at 07:43 AM

n2nbaby said: "How has nobody correctly the poster who claimed "Next to Normal was not a financial success?" Haha It recouped and is well respected by theatre fans and reviewers alike. It was a hit."

Yes, I stand corrected, at least in part. The show did recoup in about a year ( the cap was only $4 million) but it wasn't ever selling out week after week either. It never had a week where it grossed more than 100% of capacity. Here are all the numbers:



https://www.broadwayleague.com/research/grosses-broadway-nyc/#weekly_grosses

So bottom line, I still don't think a comparison to DEH is apt

Over. The show has recouped its investment. Evan is a meaty role that a lot of young musical theater actors will want to try. As long as it's not losing money (and it's not an expensive show to run) it will keep running.

Br0adway said: "I can argue for both but I’m saying under.

I most definitely saw the show in October for Ben Platt. After hearing and watching his performances on youtube, I had to see him so I paid for an overpriced ticket off StubHub and made my way to NYC. If Ben Platt happens to go back to the show or tours, I would spend the money to see Ben Platt one more time as Evan.

I think I read that Noah Galvin’s run is sold out (possibly sold out because of not knowing Platt’s end date so it’s toll over from that), but I don’t think people are rushing to get tickets for the show like they once were."

Actually, judging from how sold the show is on random dates in September and October I think the facts seem to indicate that indeed people ARE rushing to get tickets and they’re selling at high ticket prices.

Over (by little) or exact. I hope Dear Evan Hansen and Come From Away fizzle out around the same time, I had seen the show back in June and even though I loved Ben and the cast, I think once most the OBC leaves in 2019 or May there will not be much left. If Alexis Molnar comes back to the show, I might see it again, or on Mike Faist's final week, but other than that I wouldn't come back. The fact that the Twitter and Instagram fandom of teens from across North America and the UK might keep this running while ignoring the inaccuracies of the plot will take this show into 2020 would shock me.

Except that you're all forgetting two very important things:

1.) The show has recouped; and

2.) The weekly running cost is extremely low for a musical.

The easy answer is "over" when factoring in the above...

RippedMan said: "Having finally seeing the show, I don't get it. Most of the songs sound the same. The direction is boring. The design is boring. The acting/singing is great, but it's Broadway. I don't get it. The story sucks. He's an awful person - surrounded by awful friends and people - and the moral is basically "if you lie, and it helps people, that's okay." I don't understand why people are flocking to it? I mean, it's got a catchy score, so I'll give them that, but they're all singing "We Will Be Found," but all of them are desperately trying to fit in? So what's the point."

To me the point of the story is how there is no bad person/good person dichotomy. Everyone's got both, and you just have to keep pushing on and trying better. So if you want to read it as "he's a bad person," then yeah I think you're not going to enjoy the show because that's against what it's saying, to me. Be that on you or on the writing, the difference between your lack of enjoyment vs the enjoyment of others who see this show can just lie simply in how everyone is reading it.

A lot of people just enjoy it for the performances, though. Not every story has to have some profound meaning and sometimes it's just a story, and Dear Evan Hansen is a story told with some great performances, regardless of how you read the plot/characters.

Given that this was posted back in September, well before Ben left the cast, we now have new data. The box office seems not to have suffered at all as a result of his departure. So, just for fun, let’s revise the over under to 2000 performances.

You want the under or the over?

It'll run until the writer of Worlds Greatest Dad happens to stumble upon it and sues them for plagiarism and closes it down...

SomethingPeculiar said: "When this season's hits MEAN GIRLS and THE BAND'S VISIT close, DEH will still be running. Will COME FROM AWAY still be running? Hard to tell.

Fun fact: A BRONX TALE has (currently)played more performances than DEH."

So has Chicago.