Posted: 9/11/15 at 2:29pm
I saw "Hamilton" last Sunday night and it lived up to the hype IMO, absolutely fantastic !!. I was wondering if anyone thought that anything coming out later this season would even challenge "Hamilton" a bit for any of the Tony musical categories?
Posted: 9/11/15 at 2:34pm
Even if something did. It will be a Hello, Dolly vs Funny Girl race... Funny Girl didn't win anything.
Posted: 9/11/15 at 2:49pm
I think Best Book, Score, Director, Choreography and Musical are done. Hamilton will take all of them. (I suspect it'll win set, lighting and costumes and probably one acting award-my money is on Leslie Odom, Jr. for leading actor in a musical.) However, I suspect The Color Purple will do nicely in the actress categories and that George Takei has a chance at Featured Actor in a Musical. (I would not be shocked if Daveed Diggs wins, but Mr. Takei is very well-known and popular and I think perhaps since Hamilton is indeed an ensemble piece, they will reward the company with a Tony for Odom, who really is giving a standout performance.)
Posted: 9/11/15 at 2:54pm
I don't think Hamilton woukd out Odom in lead category. That would be crazy to put him against Lin. And not to forgot the MASS amount of other shows still to come this season. Ones we know and don't know. Their best bet to lock in a win I believe would be supporting.
Posted: 9/11/15 at 2:58pm
The only way it would lose (at this point) would be if enough voters think "Oh everyone is voting for Hamilton so I'll vote for (whatever) instead!"
Posted: 9/11/15 at 3:05pm
Leslie Odom, Jr. has been in the leading actor category for all the precursors, so I don't think they'll change that. I think he's the lead (we see much of the story unfold through his eyes) and that Lin will NOT cancel him out. (There are a ton of supporting actors who could get a nod: Daveed Diggs, Christopher Jackson.) I think Lin's acting is his weak spot. He'll win for the writing but Odom is giving a stronger acting performance and will win. (We've had 2 leads nominated and one win.)
Posted: 9/11/15 at 3:08pm
I consider Renee Elise Goldsberry to be a lock for a Featured Actress win.
Posted: 9/11/15 at 3:13pm
I don't think Goldsberry is a lock for win (a nod yes). The ladies from The Color Purple-including Jennifer Hudson-are going to be formidable to contend with I think. I also think Krysta Rodriguez will get a nod for her turn in Spring Awakening. Also, Jane Krakowski from She Loves Me and possibly someone from Fiddler. But I think Jennifer Hudson might surprise people (her performance that I saw on the NYTimes theater preview section was gorgeous).
Posted: 9/11/15 at 3:20pm
I'm not so sure is a lock.
I think that best musical and best direction are a done deal, but I don't think it can lay claim to anything else this early in the season.
Posted: 9/11/15 at 5:02pm
''Leslie Odom, Jr. has been in the leading actor category for all the precursors.''
Has there been that many? At the Lucille Lortel Awards, Odom and Miranda were both nominated for Leading Actor ... and Miranda won. At the Drama Desk Awards, Miranda was up for Outstanding Actor in a Musical, but Odom was up for Featured Actor. Neither of them won. At the Drama League Awards, they nominated Miranda and Daveed Diggs for Distinguished Performance (but not Odom). Neither won.
As for the Tonys, I imagine that ''Hamilton'' will submit Miranda for Leading Actor, but they could add Odom (I actually think of them as co-starring roles; yin and yang). Obviously, Odom would stand a better chance in Featured Actor, but it's still up to the Tonys on where he gets placed. The Tonys have the discretion to place an actor in whichever category they deem correct, regardless of what's submitted.
Posted: 9/11/15 at 5:11pm
BroadwayConcierge said: "I consider Renee Elise Goldsberry to be a lock for a Featured Actress win.
"
How can you put ANYONE for a lock in Sept? You are also forgetting Lea Salonga.
Posted: 9/11/15 at 5:23pm
I haven't seen Allegiance for a while (even before San Diego), but unless Takei's role has grown significantly, not sure there is enough there to hang an award on... but like I said, it has been a long-ass time since I saw the show, a lot may have changed.
Posted: 9/11/15 at 5:24pm
Are y'all so sure Tommy Tune won't sweep in with a new show at the end of April?
Posted: 9/11/15 at 5:29pm
ggersten said: "Are y'all so sure Tommy Tune won't sweep in with a new show at the end of April?"
He could, but a show that towers over Hamilton?! That is where the logic here would break down...
Posted: 9/11/15 at 5:34pm
I think Odom's performance has grown tremendously since the public. Not that he wasn't good there, but he's taken it to an entirely new level there. So even though he may have been passed over for some nominations based on that performances or lost to Lin, I think he'd be a strong contender in either acting category. I think he really deserves a lead nomination--to me he is a lead just as Javert is a lead in Les Mis.
I personally don't even think it's close between Miranda and Odom in terms of acting. Miranda is good but he really deserves his accolades for the creative aspects of the show. But I think Odom's performance stands well above. I know others may disagree though.
Will be interested to see what happens in terms of eligibility decisions.
Won't Lea Salonga be in the lead category and therefore not competing against Goldsberry? (Not that I would call Goldsberry a lock--still too early to tell although she is absolutely fantastic.)
Posted: 9/11/15 at 5:37pm
I know there was some grumblings from voters bc they were only being allowed access in Aug/early Sept. I'm not sure if that was changed but it made the producers look smug and could be a mistake. I don't think it will sweep and opening early may leave acting categories weak. A memory from September may change by spring. I think best musical and score are locked up, though.
Posted: 9/11/15 at 6:06pm
I find it interesting that nobody has mentioned Shuffle Along. Ofcourse we dom't know how good it will be but it has a powerhouse of a cast and creative team.
Posted: 9/11/15 at 6:35pm
Supporting Actress is wide open.
One of the girls from School of Rock is supposed to be outstanding.
uncageg, Shuffle Along is my most anticipated show. Even if it sucks (which I don't think is possible) just seeing and hearing that cast for 2 1/2 hours is worth the ticket.
Posted: 9/11/15 at 8:19pm
Best Musical doesn't always get Best Director.
I believe that many of the Actors in Hamilton will be foregotten or gone by TONY time. I don't remember any of the reviews saying you must see --------- in HAMILTON! And many of the Actors in SPRING AWAKENING are astounding.
Hamilton will get it's fair share but I don't see a total sweep.
Posted: 9/11/15 at 10:54pm
uncageg said: "I find it interesting that nobody has mentioned Shuffle Along."
Not a contender for Best Musical, it is a revival, no?
Posted: 9/11/15 at 11:02pm
This article says it's billed a revival. But I've seen some people say it'll be a new musical. Confusing.
http://www.theatermania.com/broadway/news/full-shuffle-along-casting-broadway_74165.html
Posted: 9/11/15 at 11:28pm
If the producers of Shuffle are smart, they will Bill it as a revival. This will give it a shot for a Tony.
Posted: 9/11/15 at 11:41pm
I think the major competition would be between Spring Awakening and Fiddler for best revival.
