Tony Nom Predictions

[jdrye222]

Posted: 4/6/12 at 11:38pm

I know there will be a ton of these posts, and it is still a few weeks away from the end of the season. But, with the bulk of shows open, I've gotten my partial list prepared. Without the eligibility decisions for many actors in plays especially, I chose not to do the acting categories for plays. Just major categories, mostly the musicals. I'm sure my choices will change slightly as it gets closer.

MUSICAL:
Once
Newsies
Ghost
Nice Work If You Can Get It

PLAY:
Clybourne Park
One Man Two Guvnors
Other Desert Cities
Peter and the Starcatcher

REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL:
Follies
Porgy and Bess
Jesus Christ Superstar
Evita

REVIVAL OF A PLAY:
Master Class
Wit
Death of a Salesman
The Best Man

SCORE:
Newsies
Once (pending eligibility)
Bonnie and Clyde
Ghost
Leap of Faith (pending "Once" ineligibility)

BOOK:
Newsies
Once
Ghost
Bonnie and Clyde

DIRECTOR OF A MUSICAL:
Michael Grandage, Evita
Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can Get It
Matthew Warchus, Ghost
John Tiffany, Once

CHOREOGRAPHY:
Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can Get It
Steven Hoggett, Once
Chris Gattelli, Newsies
Rob Marshall, Evita

ACTOR IN A MUSICAL:
Raul Esparza, Leap of Faith
Jeremy Jordan, Newsies
Steve Kazee, Once
Norm Lewis, Porgy and Bess
Danny Burstein, Follies

ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL:
Jan Maxwell, Follies
Audra McDonald, Porgy and Bess
Cristin Milioti, Once
Elena Roger, Evita
Kelli O'Hara, Nice Work If You Can Get It

FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL:
Michael McGrath, Nice Work If You Can Get It
Ricky Martin, Evita (a hunch he will be placed in Featured)
David Alan Grier, Porgy and Bess
Phillip Boykin, Porgy and Bess
Michael Cerveris, Evita

[blaxx]

Posted: 4/6/12 at 11:39pm

I know there will be a ton of these posts

Will be?

[Phyllis Rogers Stone]

Posted: 4/6/12 at 11:45pm

Remember when Bernadette was a LOCK?

[blaxx]

Posted: 4/6/12 at 11:47pm

I don't, because there have not been Tony Nom prediction posts before. Only will be.

[thetinymagic2]

Posted: 4/6/12 at 11:52pm

What about Leading Actor/Actress - PLAY (category)?

(oops - just reread your post). But why not? You're just not interested in those categories...?)

Updated On: 4/6/12 at 11:52 PM

[ljay889]

Posted: 4/6/12 at 11:52pm

I still think Bernadette will be nominated. Her reviews were more positive than Ms. Roger's.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 4/6/12 at 11:53pm

While I agree with most of these, there is one thing I have to comment on:

BOOK:
Newsies
Once
Ghost
Bonnie and Clyde

HAHAHAHAHAHA. Nice Work If You Can Get It, Lysistrata Jones, the horrendous Leap of Faith, and even Spider-Man have better chances of getting nominated over Bonnie and Clyde. My gut tells me it'll be Nice Work, but Douglas Carter Beane could score the nod for Lyssie J too.

Also...

Remember when Bernadette was a LOCK?

No, I don't. I remember when everyone else INSISTED that she was. I also remember saying that those people were crazy.

[Sinfonia2001]

Posted: 4/6/12 at 11:56pm

Blaxx, that doesn't make sense. You're not being very clever with your sarcasm.

[blaxx]

Posted: 4/7/12 at 12:01am

I'll work on it, love. Sorry to disappoint.

Does that also mean the OP will do a search from now on?

[CurtainPullDowner]

Posted: 4/7/12 at 12:03am

You have WAY too many noms for GHOST, the misical.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 4/7/12 at 12:15am

You have WAY too many noms for GHOST, the misical.

Really? Does he/she? I don't think it's a good show, but it certainly has a better score than most of the eligible new musicals. It's book isn't great, but I'd say it gets the third slot right behind Once and Newsies (what else would you nominate there?). I could see it being overlooked in the Best Director category, but I feel like the committee loves Matthew Warchus, and the fact that there are so many stage tricks may work in his favor. I actually see him getting nominated over Grandage for Evita. I'd replace Grandage with Calhoun for Newsies.

[jayinchelsea]

Posted: 4/7/12 at 12:18am

What about noms for Best Actress in a Play? Let's hope that Tyne Daly is remembered for her amazing Callas in MASTER CLASS. She's playing it in London right now and she got raves there too.

[CurtainPullDowner]

Posted: 4/7/12 at 12:30am

Maybe NEWSIES and ONCE and NICE WORK will be the only Best Musical Noms, or a surprise like Lizzie?

[bjh2114]

Posted: 4/7/12 at 12:33am

Possibly. That's certainly the category of the ones mentioned above that it is most likely to be left out of. It might go the route of Legally Blonde and get nominated for Book, Score, and design awards but get snubbed for Best Musical.

[chewy5000]

Posted: 4/7/12 at 12:45am

Do a search next time

[bwayphreak234]

Posted: 4/7/12 at 1:00am

Which shows are people thinking for best scenic design? I think Once will get a nod, and Derek McLane will definitely get a nomination for Follies or Nice Work.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 4/7/12 at 1:03am

Derek McLane is more likely to be nominated for Nice Work. I think the set design nominations will be Once, Nice Work, Ghost, and Evita (though Evita could be beaten out by Spiderman... I can't believe I just said that).

[CarlosAlberto]

Posted: 4/7/12 at 1:07am

I predict NEWSGAYS will dominate all the major nominations....



and then lose every single one in the process...

[CurtainPullDowner]

Posted: 4/7/12 at 1:30am

Carlos, did you hear the NEWSGAYS were doms?
I heard the opposite.

[CarlosAlberto]

Posted: 4/7/12 at 1:41am

^ LMAO!!!! Hmmmm...

[jagfkb]

Posted: 4/7/12 at 2:56am

My predictions:

MUSICAL: (Can we agree these are all locks?)
Once
Newsies
Ghost
Nice Work If You Can Get It

PLAY:
Clybourne Park
One Man Two Guvnors/ The Lyons
Other Desert Cities
Peter and the Starcatcher

REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL:
Follies
Porgy and Bess
Jesus Christ Superstar
Evita

REVIVAL OF A PLAY:
One Man, Two Guvnors/ Master Class
Wit
Death of a Salesman
The Best Man

SCORE:
Newsies
Lysistrata Jones
Ghost
Leap of Faith

BOOK:
Newsies
Once
Nice Work If You Can Get It
Lysistrata Jones

DIRECTOR OF A MUSICAL:
Eric Schaeffer, Follies
Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can Get It
Matthew Warchus, Ghost
John Tiffany, Once

CHOREOGRAPHY:
Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can Get It
Warren Carlyle, Follies
Chris Gattelli, Newsies
Rob Marshall, Evita

ACTOR IN A MUSICAL:
Raul Esparza, Leap of Faith
Jeremy Jordan, Newsies
Steve Kazee, Once
Norm Lewis, Porgy and Bess
Danny Burstein, Follies

ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL:
Jan Maxwell, Follies
Audra McDonald, Porgy and Bess
Cristin Milioti, Once
Elena Roger, Evita
Kelli O'Hara, Nice Work If You Can Get It

FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL:
Michael McGrath, Nice Work If You Can Get It
Tom Hewitt, Jesus Christ Superstar
David Alan Grier, Porgy and Bess
Patrick Page, Spider-Man: Turn Off The Dark
Michael Cerveris, Evita

FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Judy Kaye, Nice Work If You Can Get It
Jennifer Laura Thompson, Nice Work If You Can Get It
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, Ghost
Terri White, Follies
Kara Lindsay, Newsies


Updated On: 4/7/12 at 02:56 AM

[Shauna3]

Posted: 4/7/12 at 3:46am

My predictions:

MUSICAL: (Can we agree these are all locks?)
Once
Newsies Tony
Ghost
Nice Work If You Can Get It

PLAY:
Clybourne Park
One Man Two Guvnors/ The Lyons
Other Desert Cities Tony
Peter and the Starcatcher

REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL:
Follies Tony
Porgy and Bess
Jesus Christ Superstar
Evita

REVIVAL OF A PLAY:
One Man, Two Guvnors/ Master Class
Wit
Death of a Salesman Tony
The Best Man

SCORE:
Newsies Tony
Lysistrata Jones
Ghost
Leap of Faith

BOOK:
Newsies Tony
Once
Nice Work If You Can Get It
Lysistrata Jones

DIRECTOR OF A MUSICAL:
Eric Schaeffer, Follies Tony
Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can Get It
Matthew Warchus, Ghost
John Tiffany, Once

CHOREOGRAPHY:
Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can Get It Tony
Warren Carlyle, Follies
Chris Gattelli, Newsies
Rob Marshall, Evita

ACTOR IN A MUSICAL:
Raul Esparza, Leap of Faith Tony
Jeremy Jordan, Newsies
Steve Kazee, Once
Norm Lewis, Porgy and Bess really ?
Danny Burstein, Follies

ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL:
Jan Maxwell, Follies
Audra McDonald, Porgy and Bess Tony is there really another person that could win ?
Cristin Milioti, Once
Elena Roger, Evita really ?
Kelli O'Hara, Nice Work If You Can Get It

FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL:
Michael McGrath, Nice Work If You Can Get It tony
Tom Hewitt, Jesus Christ Superstar
David Alan Grier, Porgy and Bess
Patrick Page, Spider-Man: Turn Off The Dark
Michael Cerveris, Evita

FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Judy Kaye, Nice Work If You Can Get It
Jennifer Laura Thompson, Nice Work If You Can Get It
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, Ghost
Terri White, Follies
Kara Lindsay, Newsies

No idea JLT is amazing



Read more: https://forum.broadwayworld.com/readmessagemodern.cfm?thread=1043823&m=4258923&boardid=0#ixzz1rL2iZulP

[jdrye222]

Posted: 4/7/12 at 4:41am

While some of my predictions may seem wacky, Shauna is slightly certifiable....

-There is NO WAY Eric Schaeffer will win a Tony over John Tiffany. I actually think John Tiffany has no competition for his brilliant direction of ONCE. It is immaculately directed.

-While I wouldn't be surprised if Warren Carlyle is nominated for FOLLIES, it would be really disappointing - I thought that choreography was just plain terrible, and there is no excuse for what he did to the "Lucy and Jessie" number.

-There is also NO WAY that Phillip Boykin will not be nominated for Featured Actor. Aside from the raves for Audra, he was the only other cast member that was consistently singled out in reviews, and he is just completely superb as Crown. He makes you feel something for what is usually an archetypal villain. His facial expressions and pain when he is refused by Bess are complete and deep, and this is a character that has everything going against him in terms of sympathy.

[jdrye222]

Posted: 4/7/12 at 4:41am

While some of my predictions may seem wacky, Shauna is slightly certifiable....

-There is NO WAY Eric Schaeffer will win a Tony over John Tiffany. I actually think John Tiffany has no competition for his brilliant direction of ONCE. It is immaculately directed.

-While I wouldn't be surprised if Warren Carlyle is nominated for FOLLIES, it would be really disappointing - I thought that choreography was just plain terrible, and there is no excuse for what he did to the "Lucy and Jessie" number.

-There is also NO WAY that Phillip Boykin will not be nominated for Featured Actor. Aside from the raves for Audra, he was the only other cast member that was consistently singled out in reviews, and he is just completely superb as Crown. He makes you feel something for what is usually an archetypal villain. His facial expressions and pain when he is refused by Bess are complete and deep, and this is a character that has everything going against him in terms of sympathy.

[CurtainPullDowner]

Posted: 4/7/12 at 7:19am

What about Jeffie Calhoun?