Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread- Page 20

[JBroadway]

Posted: 3/22/19 at 7:08pm

JudyDenmark said: "Based solely on buzz (haven't seen Tootsie), I would put Sarah Stiles into the running."

 

Yes, I think I actually meant Sarah Stiles and not Lily Cooper. Unless they’ve both been getting nomination buzz? I can’t remember. It’s hard to keep track of these things with shows I haven’t seen 

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 3/22/19 at 7:10pm

From what I understand, Lilli Cooper plays the main love interest featured character, and Sarah Stiles is the quirky scene-stealer. I think either/both could be in contention. 

[Rogerdellibovi]

Posted: 3/22/19 at 7:11pm

Bonnie Milligan lol. Unfortunately head over heels with be completely shut out even though I think they deserve a choreography nom. My guess is 

Amber Gray

Mary Testa 

Ali Strocker

Stephanie Styles

Either Lilli Cooper or Sarah Stiles

Still can’t decide between the Tootsie women, really I’m hoping they beefed up Lilli’s role because she is the love interest, but based on the Chicago run I would say Sarah.

If any of the Beetlejuice women are exceptional, I could easily see Stephanie Styles getting swapped out. 

 

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 3/23/19 at 10:06am

Milligan was great, sadly she won't be remembered.

Will Oklahoma nominate two actresses? I was only counting Testa in.

I would say Stiles has a flashier role in Tootsie, she even has a ''Model Behavior'' number that will seal her nom.

Does Orfeh has a chance? Micaela definitely has one.

If Beetlejuice is any good, Kritzer is in great shape, I laughed hard with her.

As of now:

1. Amber Gray, Hadestown

2. Mary Testa, Oklahoma!

3. Stephanie Styles, Kiss Me, Kate

4. Sarah Stiles, Tootsie

5. Micaela Diamond, The Cher Show

[getupngo]

Posted: 3/23/19 at 5:09pm

Theatrefanboy1 said: "Oklahoma best revival (kiss me Kate nominated)"

saw both. Oklahoma will 100% win

[getupngo]

Posted: 3/23/19 at 5:10pm

MadsonMelo said: "Micaela Diamond, The Cher Show"

yes yes yes. just based on her The Beat Goes On number

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 3/25/19 at 1:15pm

Sorkin wont win the Tony for Mockinbird, rigor? As he’s Not a producer

[CT2NYC]

Posted: 3/25/19 at 1:20pm

MadsonMelo said: "Sorkin wont win the Tony for Mockinbird, rigor? As he’s Not a producer"

The playwright also wins the Tony for Best Play.

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 3/27/19 at 10:36am

I would love to see Eric Anderson get a Featured Actor nom for Pretty Woman. He's one of the few good things about that show, though Featured Actor is a crowded field (Patrick Page, Andre DeShields, Corbin Bleu, Patrick Vaill, Chris Sieber, George Salazar)

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 3/27/19 at 10:42am

SomethingPeculiar said: "I would love to see Eric Anderson get a Featured Actor nom forPretty Woman.He's one of the few good things about that show, though Featured Actor is a crowded field (Patrick Page, Andre DeShields, Corbin Bleu, Patrick Vaill, Chris Sieber, George Salazar)"

...not to mention all of the guys in Tootsie and Ain't Too Proud. Sorry to say that I think Pretty Woman will be entirely shut out this year. 

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 3/27/19 at 10:50am

I think Pretty Woman will get 0 noms.

Also, what noms should we expect for Oklahoma!?


Revival
Lead Actor
Lead Actress
Featured Actor (Vail)
Featured Actress (Testa and Brooke)
Orchestrations
Choreography
Direction of a Musical
Lighting
Sound Design


11? Can it get noms for Scenic Design and Costume Design? Don't know how ''modern'' are they.

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 3/27/19 at 11:38am

MadsonMelo said: "I think Pretty Woman will get 0 noms.

Also, what noms should we expect for Oklahoma!?


Revival
Lead Actor
Lead Actress
Featured Actor (Vail)
Featured Actress (Testa and Brooke)
Orchestrations
Choreography
Direction of a Musical
Lighting
Sound Design


11? Can it get noms for Scenic Design and Costume Design? Don't know how ''modern'' are they."

Well they aren't meant to be modern, so that likely won't hurt its chances. Honestly 11 doesn't seem unlikely for this show, the reviews are just so strong. I think this or Hadestown will have the most musical nominations, if not most total nominations. I expect The Ferryman will take that cake. 

 

Also, based on early reports, Id say Burn This is a contender for Best revival, as well as noms for Uranowitz and Driver specifically. Excited to see it in a few weeks!! 

[Megsamegatron]

Posted: 3/27/19 at 11:38am

Who do we think has a shot at being nominated for choreography? 

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 3/27/19 at 11:43am

Mike Barrett said: "Honestly 11 doesn't seem unlikely for this show, the reviews are just so strong."

Reminder that Oklahoma hasn't actually opened yet. I mean, I expect strong critical reviews based on St. Ann's, but it's clearly a very polarizing show. Let's not jump the gun.

(Edit: I realize that this entire thread is jumping the gun, lol. But still.)

Updated On: 3/27/19 at 11:43 AM

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 3/27/19 at 11:47am

JudyDenmark said: "Mike Barrett said: "Honestly 11 doesn't seem unlikely for this show, the reviews are just so strong."

Reminder that Oklahoma hasn't actually opened yet. I mean, I expect strong critical reviews based on St. Ann's, but it's clearly a very polarizing show. Let's not jump the gun.

(Edit: I realized that this entire thread is jumping the gun, lol. But still.)"

I hear ya, but its only competing with 1 other revival, so I think the likelihood of it doing well on numerous fronts is high, but I of course could be wrong! 

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 3/27/19 at 11:50am

Right, but the only category that matters in is Best Revival. Otherwise it'll be up against all of the new musicals. 

[IdinaBellFoster]

Posted: 3/27/19 at 12:00pm

Having heard Sarah Stiles' big number from TOOTSIE, I fully expect her to get a nomination. Very "Model Behavior".

I'd say right now Featured Actress is between these six:

Micaela Diamond, THE CHER SHOW

Amber Gray, HADESTOWN

Ali Stroker, OKLAHOMA!

Sarah Stiles, TOOTSIE

Stephanie Styles, KISS ME KATE

Mary Testa, OKLAHOMA!

Updated On: 3/27/19 at 12:00 PM

[OKBroadwayFan]

Posted: 3/27/19 at 12:05pm

Goldderby.com has their Tony predictions.   They are usually very accurate on Oscars and Emmy Awards.   I don't think they are as spot on with the Tony Awards.   

 

https://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/expert-predictions/tony-awards-nominations-2019/best-musical/sort/recent/

They seem to like The Prom.

[Rogerdellibovi]

Posted: 3/27/19 at 12:06pm

Megsamegatron said: "Who do we think has a shot at being nominated for choreography?"

I think Oklahoma will take it but for nominations:

Oklahoma!

Kiss Me Kate!

Cher Show

The Prom

Ain’t Too Proud

I’m not sure about Hadestown as of now, but I’m seeing it in a couple days. 

[oncemorewithfeeling2]

Posted: 3/27/19 at 12:25pm

Hadestown is not flashy in its choreography, but uses movement incredibly well to help tell the story, especially in the first act. Neumann’s choreography reminds of Steven Hoggett’s work. I don’t know if it can stand up to Kiss Me Kate, The Prom, The Cher Show, Oklahoma!, or even Head Over Heals or Ain’t Too Proud. But what it does it does well. 

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 3/27/19 at 12:27pm

Rogerdellibovi said: "Megsamegatron said: "Who do we think has a shot at being nominated for choreography?"

I think Oklahoma will take it but for nominations:

Oklahoma!
Kiss Me Kate!
Cher Show
The Prom
Ain’t Too Proud

I’m not sure about Hadestown as of now, but I’m seeing it in a couple days."

Haven't seen Hadestown yet, but imho I'd give it the nod over Cher Show. Personally I thought the choreo was the weakest part of that show. 

I'd just like to see Ain't Too Proud get a nomination - the fact that those guys barely stop moving throughout the show is really something else. And moving so flawlessly. 

Are there any plays we're forgetting in this category? I can't think of any this year that are heavily choreographed (in the way that Curious Incident and Harry Potter were, and rightfully nominated)... but I haven't seen all of them. 

 

[IdinaBellFoster]

Posted: 3/27/19 at 12:30pm

Bill Irwin is credited with "Movement" for GARY. Not sure what that all entails, but that seems to be the only play that leaps out to me. 

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 3/27/19 at 12:33pm

Oklahoma! could easily get 10, and then there are 3 on-the-fence categories (Choreography, Set, Costumes). The biggest complaint has been that the Dream Ballet in this production feels totally isolated from the story, whereas Agnes DeMille's was a moment of realization for Laurey.

Without going category-by-category, I think we're looking at:

Hadestown –– 14 noms
Tootsie –– 10-12
Oklahoma! –– 10
The Prom –– 7-8
Kiss Me, Kate –– 7-9
Beetlejuice –– 1-7
Be More Chill –– 1-5

Ferryman –– 9
Mockingbird –– 9
Network –– 5 but not Best Play

Still so many unknowns, especially for plays.

[Daddy Warbucks]

Posted: 3/27/19 at 12:40pm

OKBroadwayFan said: "Goldderby.com has their Tony predictions. They are usually very accurate on Oscars and Emmy Awards. I don't think they are as spot on with the Tony Awards.

https://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/expert-predictions/tony-awards-nominations-2019/best-musical/sort/recent/"

What is interesting is that in all four of their models, they have Be More Chill getting nominated for Best Musical which goes along with my theory that if there isn’t a slam dunk for that fourth spot, the nominators may give a nod to the next generation of Broadway.  

 

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 3/27/19 at 12:41pm

SomethingPeculiar said: "Oklahoma!could easily get 10, and then there are 3on-the-fence categories(Choreography, Set, Costumes). The biggest complaint has been that the Dream Ballet in this production feels totally isolated from the story, whereas Agnes DeMille's was a moment of realization for Laurey.

Without going category-by-category, I think we're looking at:

Hadestown –– 14 noms
Tootsie –– 10-12
Oklahoma! –– 10
The Prom –– 7-8
Kiss Me, Kate –– 7-9
Beetlejuice –– 1-7
Be More Chill ––1-5

Ferryman –– 9
Mockingbird –– 9
Network ––5 but not Best Play

Still so many unknowns, especially for plays."

Don't disagree with that, with the exception of Be More Chill. I'd be surprised if it got more than 1-2, and I'm not even sure what those would be. Orchestrations, maybe? I wouldn't count out Ain't Too Proud, which I expect to get choreo, potentially an actor nomination or two, and possibly Best Musical. Maybe scenic design. Worth pointing out that it's one of the very few diverse shows this year, and fair factor or not, it's a factor to consider. Road voters will love it too. [Promise I have nothing to do with the show... just rooting for it because I enjoyed it a lot more than I expected to.]

Beetlejuice is such a wild card! 

Why are you saying Network won't get a Best Play nom? If we're going strictly on book I get it, because I know that a lot of people felt the book was weak, but I think Best Play really encompasses the production as a whole. (Case in point Harry Potter winning last year.) I think it could sneak in. Depends a lot on the reviews of the plays yet to open, really.

I love these discussions, but it really is all so premature, haha. (Though props to the very first post in this thread, which is 2/3 spot on despite not really knowing what would be open!)

 

Updated On: 3/27/19 at 12:41 PM