Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread — Page 21

OKBroadwayFan said: "Goldderby.com has their Tony predictions. They are usually very accurate on Oscars and Emmy Awards. I don't think they are as spot on with the Tony Awards.



https://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/expert-predictions/tony-awards-nominations-2019/best-musical/sort/recent/

They seem to like The Prom."

They are usually very accurate at who is going to win after nominations are announced except when there are major shocks (I remember they had Come From Away in the 4th or 5th slot for best direction, which it won). The Prom love is real! I think the wildest guess is Michael McGrath getting a featured nom (he’s in like 2 scenes and doesn’t even sing for reference). I’m guessing they will change a bunch after hadestown, Tootsie and Beetlejuice actually open.

Since there seems to be a lot of conversation around "4th slots" for Best Musical and Best Play... aren't there 5? Wasn't that a change as of last year? Surely there are enough eligible shows in both of those categories to allow for 5 nominees.

Edit: If there ARE five, my current predictions are
Hadestown, Tootsie, The Prom, Ain't Too Proud, and Beetlejuice (pending reviews... otherwise prob BMC) for Best Musical
And Ferryman, TKAM, Choir Boy, Ink, and either Hillary/Gary/Network for Play.

Edit 2: Clearly I was hallucinating, haha. Here are the rules from last year, which (if I'm reading it right) is the same 4 Best Show nominees unless there's a tie as it's always been. Never mind! https://www.tonyawards.com/pdf/2018_Tony_Rules.pdf

Updated On: 3/27/19 at 01:54 PM

I think Hadestown is pretty much a lock for Featured Actress and Score. However, I wouldn't count out Tootsie for Best Musical- a lot of people loved it in Chicago and were praising it for having one of the best books in recent memory, and it wouldn't be the first time a more commercial show beats out something more "artsy"

And I think Daniel Fish is probably the frontrunner for Direction for Oklahoma at the moment, which is a complete reinvention and is probably gonna get raves. Although I can see Chavkin getting it, both for her inventive work here and to make up for The Great Comet.

woeisme3 said: "I think Hadestown is pretty much a lock for Featured Actress and Score. However, I wouldn't count out Tootsie for Best Musical- a lot of people loved it in Chicago and were praising it for having one of the best books in recent memory, and it wouldn't be the first time a more commercial show beats out something more "artsy"

And I think Daniel Fish is probably the frontrunner for Direction for Oklahoma at the moment, which is a complete reinvention and is probably gonna get raves. Although I cansee Chavkin getting it, both for her inventive work here and to make up for The Great Comet."

i obviously know nothing, but i think you might have this backward. Chavkin is long overdue, and with Oklahoma! likely winning revival, I can see them acknowledging Fish that way. Meanwhile, i think Stoker and Testa are both going to give Amber Gray a run for her money. Testa is also long overdue, and Stoker not only is winning raves, but breaking barriers. We'll see.

Shocked at the number of people unsure if Patrick Page will win or not. Who exactly is his competition? I think Amber is much less a sure thing, though I do think she will win if simply because Oklahoma voters will split between Mary Testa and Ali Strocker.

JDonaghy4 said: "i obviously know nothing, but i think you might have this backward. Chavkin is long overdue, and with Oklahoma! likely winning revival, I can see them acknowledging Fish that way. Meanwhile, i think Stoker and Testa are both going to give Amber Gray a run for her money. Testa is also long overdue, and Stoker not only is winning raves, but breaking barriers. We'll see."

I've loved Chavkin's work on The Great Comet and Hadestown, but...long overdue? This is her second Broadway show.

My effort out on the musical limb for noms, I think it'll land:
Tootsie + Oklahoma! –– 11
Hadestown –– 10
The Prom + Kiss Me, Kate –– 6
Ain't Too Proud + Beetlejuice –– 4
Be More Chill –– 3

BroadwayGuy12 said: "

I've loved Chavkin's work on The Great Comet and Hadestown, but...long overdue? This is her second Broadway show."

Ha, you're absolutely right. I meant that there is alot of adoration for her, and a feeling that she was deserving for the Great Comet.

Hadestown

Tootsie

Ain't Too Proud

The Prom

( Beetlejuice or Be More Chill or Cher Show )

Updated On: 3/29/19 at 09:48 AM

woeisme3 said: "I think Hadestown is pretty much a lock for Featured Actress."

I think most people would say Ali Stoker is the lock

jbp1232 said: "getupngo said: "woeisme3 said: "I think Hadestown is pretty much a lock for Featured Actress."

I think most people would say Ali Stoker is the lock"

I think both Amber Gray and Ali Stroker are locks for nominations, but I could see the award going to either. My money is on Gray, but I thought Stroker was fantastic (actually about the only thing I liked about this production of Oklahoma that everyone else seems to be raving about)."

I think gray will take it if (like someone else mentioned) the Oklahoma vote splits between testa and stoker... but I really don't see testa getting a nom? I don't think she did anything extraordinary in this....

Mike Barrett said: "My guess is it'll be these 4, and at this point this is 100% my prediction. Id be surprised if it isn't these 4 to be perfectly honest. Maybe, possibly, a Be More Chill steal but thats it.

Ain't Too Proud
Hadestown
Tootsie
The Prom"

100% agree that this is 100% my prediction, haha. If there's a fifth... I think Cher Show. But I don't see anything upsetting those four.