There has been discussion here about the large number of eligible new musicals this season, and whether there should thus be a fifth nominee. Unfortunately, the rule is clearly written as follows:
Where there are nine or more eligible shows in a Best Show category, at the Tony Nominating Meeting, the Nominating Committee will be instructed to cast one vote each for four eligible shows as nominees on his/her secret ballot. Such ballot shall be collected and tabulated by a representative of the Accounting Firm. The four eligible shows with the highest number of votes will automatically be designated as the nominees in such category. A fifth nominee shall be added to the category in the event that the Accounting Firm determines that the difference in votes between the fourth highest ranked show and the fifth highest ranked show is three votes or less.
(B)
So, what that means is that the show that comes in fifth in the balloting must be just behind the show that comes in fourth, which might well preclude a fifth nominee this year when there will clearly be at least five deserving nominees. Two are locks, as stated by many, DEH and Great Comet (and my own opinion is that DEH will take home the prize), but then there will be several shows fighting for the remaining two slots. (Amelie, A Bronx Tale, Come From Away, Ground Hog Day, and War Paint (to name just five.) Based only on what I've heard, I'd throw in Come From away as a near lock for a nomination, which will leave several very good shows to duke it out.
CZJ at opening night party for A Little Night Music, Dec 13, 2009.