West End Transfer Likelihood of 2024 Tony Award Best Musical Nominees

Sure, I'll play.

1. The Outsiders

2. Illinoise

3. Water For Elephants

4. Hell's Kitchen

5. Suffs

A London transfer of Lempicka is seemingly in the works, but who knows if it’ll come to fruition.

Among this year’s best musical nominees, I’ll say Hell’s Kitchen is most likely, followed by The Outsiders, Suffs, Illinoise, and Water for Elephants.

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ILLINOISE feels like kind of a no brainer for London. Whether it's done commercially, or at a nonprofit like the National or a ballet theatre.

Some of these shows might have London rights spoken for already. Sometimes people invest in or co-produce Broadway shows in exchange for getting the UK or international rights to said show. (Those plans actually coming to fruition is a different matter)

Why is Illinoise a no brainer for London? I think the great Gatsby is a no brainer to cross the pond and water for elephants as well.

I don't know if SUFFS would be received the same way in London as it did here. That said, Hamilton continues to play there and that's a VERY AMERICAN musical. As Jordan mentioned, they are more likely to get the UK version, Sylvia.

For the musicals that did not get nominated for Best Musical, How to Dance in Ohio is scheduled to premiere somewhere in the UK next year. Days of Wine & Roses could, but it's not likely. With the Notebook having a growing fanbase, I think that could have a chance in London. I'm still on the fence about seeing that one. Might throw in the towel and see it the weekend before I move to London.

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Wasn’t nominated but The Heart of Rock and Roll has already announced plans to go to London.

Updated On: 6/30/24 at 10:58 AM

I don't know how popular the Great Gatsby title is over there, but fwiw it does seem like the kind of show UK audiences would enjoy. Depending on what Lempicka does with the material if they revamp it, I could see that doing well too.

The Notebook is most likely; producers here like to take a gamble on slushy adaptations of romantic movies, and normally lose money on them (witness everything Colin Ingram has ever produced, for example).

Gatsby is well known but not central to the British imagination (and it wouldn't be cheap, either, and would most likely flop); Outsiders occupies almost zero place in British nostalgia to drum up marketing beyond being the next "show with hot boys in", although if the reviews were good it might pick up; the British suffragette movement is indelibly marked on our consciousness through the Pankhursts which kind-of kills Suffs.

Hell's Kitchen is most likely out of the nominees - we seem to like a jukebox musical or three, and there's, like, two Alicia Keys songs that everyone knows to sell it on.

Our market is basically jukebox musicals of various shapes and sizes, established imported hits, and small, almost DIY-esque comedy musicals. Not many things this season fit those descriptions.

I'd be more excited to see Stereophonic transfer than any of the big trad musicals; when Days of Wine and Roses ends up doing a limited run at the Menier (inevitably starring Jenna Russell) or one of those "under a railway bridge" venues like Southwark I'll go and see that.