What Show Will Pass Up Phantom on the Long Run List

[Jarethan]

Posted: 4/25/23 at 12:39pm

Totally theoretical and some of us will probably have gone to that great theatre in the sky, but I am expecting Lion King and Wicked to eventually run longer than Phantom.  Both are doing much better business than Phantom was doing at their current performance levels — if you look back, Phantom frequently had weeks and weeks of 75% audiences continuously, and Phantom has been at TKTS for 20 or so years, where (to the best of my knowledge, neither Wicked or Lion King have ever been.  While there are obviously discount tickets to be found for Wicked (I have never been able to find them), I don’t think there have for Lion King.

I do not think that Chicago, Hamilton or BOM have a likely shot at it, although whoever thought Chicago would get this far (and be in the midst of its highest grossing year yet).

Updated On: 4/25/23 at 12:39 PM

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 4/25/23 at 12:48pm

I do think Lion King will be the next to reach that goal. I do t think Chicago ever reaches it.

Wicked would be contingent on Lion King closing. 

[Jarethan]

Posted: 4/25/23 at 12:53pm

ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "I do think Lion King will be the next to reach that goal. I do t think Chicago ever reaches it.

Wicked would be contingent on Lion King closing."

Only to become #1, not to pass Phantom.  

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 4/25/23 at 1:00pm

You’re speaking nonsense. Any show that becomes #1 would HAVE to surpass Phantom’s run. I can easily see Lion King doing that. And perhaps eventually that’s #1, Wicked #2, Phantom #3, Chicago #4.

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 4/25/23 at 1:16pm

Just to add a bit of context to all of this...

Phantom closed after 13,981 performances.

Chicago is currently sitting at #2 with 10,345 performances. That means it needs to do 3,636 more performances in order to surpass Phantom in the #1 spot. 3,636 performances divided by eight shows a week means it needs to run about 455 more calendar weeks, or until around January 2032.

The Lion King is currently sitting at #3 with 9,961 performances. That means it needs 4,020 more performances to surpass Phantom in the #1 spot (assuming Chicago has closed at some point in the future). 4,020 performances divided by eight shows a week means it needs to run about 503 more calendar weeks, or until around December 2032.

This is a fun conversation to have but I just wanted to remind everyone that the #1 spot is secured by Phantom for at least another decade.

 

[Jarethan]

Posted: 4/25/23 at 5:52pm

ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "You’re speaking nonsense. Any show that becomes #1 would HAVE to surpass Phantom’s run. I can easily see Lion King doing that. And perhaps eventually that’s #1, Wicked #2, Phantom #3, Chicago #4."

I guess I wasn't clear.  Based on trends to date, including surviving a pandemic, I would expect the long-runs to eventually become: (1) Lion King; (2) Wicked; (3) Phantom; (4) Chicago, with (5) Cats at least 3,500 performances behind Chicago.  I / we have always seen Chicago as the little engine that could, but I do think Wicked will eventually overtake it.  

I do actually wonder whether The Lion King will ever close, which is not something I have felt about Phantom since it went on TKTS 20 or so years ago.

[Dollypop]

Posted: 4/25/23 at 6:00pm

THE LION KING was on TDF for awhile immediately after Broadway re-opened after the lock down

 

[Kad]

Posted: 4/25/23 at 6:04pm

Phantom has almost a decade on Lion King and almost 15 years on Wicked. That is a lot of ground to make up for both shows. And that being said, both Lion King and Wicked are safe from being overtaken in their placements for the foreseeable future. 

Updated On: 4/25/23 at 06:04 PM

[Jarethan]

Posted: 4/25/23 at 6:27pm

I guess I think both will eventually overtake Phantom; my logic is based on the business they are doing today vs. where Phantom was at the point of their current respective runs.  They are over the course of the year far exceeding Phantom in terms of audience size and gross relative to potential.  I guess I started this because i thought that, even though Phantom's record is phenomenal, i think there are already two serious contenders to take over its place.

I remember when Hello Dolly took over the #1 spot, only to have Fiddler surpass it a year or so later.  The definition of long-runs has changed dramatically since then, aided by on-line credit card sales, TV advertising, increased tourism, premium pricing (certainly during peak weeks, when they can build up further reserves), the desire to see the 'sure thing' probably aided by never-ending far-exceeding-inflation index increases in ticket prices, Times Square not being quite as squalid as it was in the 70s, and whatever other reasons (are there others?). 

So, 60 years after Fiddler broke the record, Phantom closes after playing 11 performances for every one of Fiddler's.  So, where Fiddler only needed about 9 months to pass Dolly after it closed, The Lion King will still need 10 more years.  A long time, but eminently doable, minus some dramatic paradigm shift in theatre going in Manhattan.

Updated On: 4/25/23 at 06:27 PM

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 4/25/23 at 6:31pm

Kad said: "Phantom has almost a decade on Lion King and almost 15 years on Wicked. That is a lot of ground to make up for both shows. And that being said, both Lion King and Wicked are safe from being overtaken in their placements for the foreseeable future."

Just wanted to reply to this and quantify what you’re saying since I kind of live for this stuff…

Wicked is currently the #4 longest-running show with 7,501 performances as of this week. Obviously, that number is going to increase over time (as will the numbers for Chicago and Lion King). But for purposes of this post, let’s just ignore who is in slots 1-4 and in what order at any given point in the next 10+ years.

The #5 longest-running show right now is Cats, which ran for 7,485 performances. So in order for a show to come immediately behind Wicked and take that #5 longest-running slot from Cats, we need to see another production run for 7,486 performances.

The next longest-running show currently on Broadway is The Book of Mormon, which is at #13 right now with 4,359 performances. In order for Mormon to overtake Cats as the #5 longest-running show, it needs to run for another 3,127 performances—which if you divide by eight performances a week is about 391 more performance weeks. That means Mormon needs to run through October 2030 in order to take slot #5.

There are only two shows behind Mormon within reasonable distance: Aladdin (currently #20; 3,131 performances) and Hamilton (currently #25; 2,574 performances). Say that Mormon closes at some point before October 2030 and these two shows keep running and try to make it to the #5 slot. Aladdin will need to run through September 2033, and Hamilton will need to run through January 2035.

All this to say: the occupants of slots 1-5 are officially set through the rest of this decade. Whether Mormon, Aladdin, or Hamilton will make it to the 2030s to try to take that #5 slot from Cats and compete with the top four longest-running shows, we will have to see!

[ACL2006]

Posted: 4/25/23 at 6:45pm

As long as the producers of Chicago keep bringing in B-listers/C-listers and pumping money into the show, it'll likely happen. it should then close in 2033 for only The Lion King to eventually take the title.

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 4/25/23 at 6:58pm

I’m curious how much The Lion King and Wicked currently cost to operate on a weekly basis. It was being reported that Phantom cost around 1 million dollars per week, which I just find crazy. Spider-Man cost that much to run, if I recall correctly. The Lion King and Wicked just seem so massive I’d imagine they would also have huge expenses, if not more than Phantom.

[Listener]

Posted: 4/25/23 at 7:38pm

Just in terms of popularity, I think Wicked will beat out Lion King and Chicago and be the first to knock Phantom out of its spot.

 

[GoldenGiggery]

Posted: 4/25/23 at 8:09pm

It’s interesting how many people doubt Chicago’s continued lifespan. Remember that compared to almost every other musical running, Chicago costs pennies to run, and has an orchestra/cast full of people who have been in it for years or decades. With the continued stunt casting consistently renewing interest, and an easy discount ticket to grab for tourists, I would not be surprised if it eventually surpasses Phantom for a while. 
 

In terms of Lion King v Wicked, Lion King will eventually become the new “forever running” show. It’s got a never-ending built in audience of Disney fans that spans generations, including upcoming ones, and is the most successful entertainment entity of all time. Combine that with it almost never being discounted (CoVid return not withstanding), Parents paying for premium priced seats for their kids, and global recognition, unless Nederlander or Disney decides they want to pull the plug on it, it will not die. 

Updated On: 4/25/23 at 08:09 PM

[Zeppie2022]

Posted: 4/26/23 at 8:46am

"Lion King" has the young children being introduced to Broadway advantage and "Wicked" has the young "fan girls" who adore the show so it is hard to say which one will last longer. Since "Lion King" already has five-year advantage on "Wicked", I will vote for "Lion King" to topple "Phantom".

[AEA AGMA SM]

Posted: 4/26/23 at 11:27am

There is no doubt in my mind that The Lion King will eventually surpass Phantom. I also don’t think it’s impossible for Chicago to do it, but wouldn’t view that as a sure money bet. I also don’t think it’s out of the question that Wicked also catches up to Phantom. Whether it’s also able to outlast and eventually surpass Lion King is another question that I’m not convinced is a sure thing. 

[Jarethan]

Posted: 4/26/23 at 11:47am

Zeppie2022 said: ""Lion King" has the young children being introduced to Broadway advantage and "Wicked" has the young "fan girls" who adore the show so it is hard to say which one will last longer. Since "Lion King" already has five-year advantage on "Wicked", I will vote for "Lion King" to topple "Phantom"."

I actually think they will both topple it, but I can’t see Chicago lasting another 10 years.  I probably think LK will run more performances than W because LK does quite a bit better than Wicked in slow periods and manages to make more money in peak times because they get away with higher places.  

I also expect the movie Wicked to have a positive impact on Broadway grosses, especially given its two-movie approach.  Chicago the movie is probably as responsible for the show’s longevity than and other factor (other than the show’s entertainment value).  It will help wicked too. 

[hearthemsing22]

Posted: 4/26/23 at 12:38pm

I don't think Wicked is in danger of going anywhere any time soon, especially with the movies coming out next year and in 2025. Even if people are sick of it, I think that will most definitely bring new audiences to Broadway, thus guaranteeing a long run for the forseeable future. 

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 4/26/23 at 12:42pm

I agree with the consensus here that Lion King and Wicked could both pass Phantom eventually. I really don't think Chicago lasts another ten years. And I don't think Book of Mormon or Hamilton will get into the conversation.

[Zeppie2022]

Posted: 4/26/23 at 12:45pm

" Chicago the movie is probably as responsible for the show’s longevity than and other factor (other than the show’s entertainment value).  It will help wicked too. "

What is amazing to me is the original "Chicago" on Broadway did not even make it to 1,000 shows and the revival is over 10,000. Was the Broadway audience back then not ready for the original production to make it a huge hit or was there significant changes to the revival. I saw the revival and not the original.

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 4/26/23 at 12:46pm

Just out of curiosity, do people find Lion King a little dated or not? I haven't seen it in forever but obviously Phantom felt like a product of its time and when I saw Wicked recently, it really felt like a relic of the early 2000s. Just curious if Lion King has that vibe or not.

[Ke3]

Posted: 4/26/23 at 12:51pm

Zeppie2022 said: ""Chicago the movie is probably as responsible for the show’s longevity than and other factor (other than the show’s entertainment value). It will help wicked too. "

What is amazing to me is the original "Chicago" on Broadway did not even make it to 1,000 shows and the revival is over 10,000. Was the Broadway audience back then not ready for the original production to make it a huge hit or was there significant changes to the revival. I saw the revival and not the original."

Audiences just didn't connect with it. There are many theories on why that is. The most oft-repeated theory is that it was simply too nihilistic. I do think there's some truth to that. If you've seen Fosse/Verdon there's the scene where Fosse keeps telling Chita she has to do All That Jazz darker. Rawer. Sadder. I think Chicago really became what he wanted the film version of Cabaret to be but was pulled back from. Also, no, from what I've read the only real change to Chicago is the staging.

[Kad]

Posted: 4/26/23 at 12:59pm

Mr. Wormwood said: "Just out of curiosity, do people find Lion King a little dated or not? I haven't seen it in forever but obviously Phantom felt like a product of its time and when I saw Wicked recently, it really felt like a relic of the early 2000s. Just curious if Lion King has that vibe or not."

I saw Lion King in 2019 and definitely felt there were a lot of dated elements- and the second act especially sags.

[hearthemsing22]

Posted: 4/26/23 at 12:59pm

Wait why will Hamilton close and not make it? How much longer are people giving it???

[Jarethan]

Posted: 4/26/23 at 1:03pm

Zeppie2022 said: ""Chicago the movie is probably as responsible for the show’s longevity than and other factor (other than the show’s entertainment value). It will help wicked too. "

What is amazing to me is the original "Chicago" on Broadway did not even make it to 1,000 shows and the revival is over 10,000. Was the Broadway audience back then not ready for the original production to make it a huge hit or was there significant changes to the revival. I saw the revival and not the original."

Three things:

1.  It opened within a very short time of A Chorus Line, which got phenomenal (somewhat undeserved, IMO) reviews and was, similar to Hamilton as being the juggernaut of its day, if not quite as much.  It got lost in the ACL adulation which saw Donna McKechnie (sic) beat Chita Rivera and Gwen Verdon for a Tony in what was absolutely a featured role (although they admittedly may have knocked each other out of the running).  (It was the year of featured performers...George Rose beat Jerry Orbach for lead in a musical for playing Alfred Doolittle in MFL, a featured role if ever there was one).

2.  It was considered ahead of its time when it opened because it was so cynical.  A lot of people apparently felt that the premise was also far-fetched (fast-forward to today and we know it was very prescient).

3.  I think that Times Square was as close to its debacle as it ever was.  It was sleazy, sometimes scary, etc.

But the biggest reason IMO was the ACL juggernaut.

Updated On: 4/26/23 at 01:03 PM