What Show Will Pass Up Phantom on the Long Run List

I do think Lion King will be the next to reach that goal. I do t think Chicago ever reaches it.

Wicked would be contingent on Lion King closing.

You’re speaking nonsense. Any show that becomes #1 would HAVE to surpass Phantom’s run. I can easily see Lion King doing that. And perhaps eventually that’s #1, Wicked #2, Phantom #3, Chicago #4.

ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "You’re speaking nonsense. Any show that becomes #1 would HAVE to surpass Phantom’s run. I can easily see Lion King doing that. And perhaps eventually that’s #1, Wicked #2, Phantom #3, Chicago #4."

I guess I wasn't clear. Based on trends to date, including surviving a pandemic, I would expect the long-runs to eventually become: (1) Lion King; (2) Wicked; (3) Phantom; (4) Chicago, with (5) Cats at least 3,500 performances behind Chicago. I / we have always seen Chicago as the little engine that could, but I do think Wicked will eventually overtake it.

I do actually wonder whether The Lion King will ever close, which is not something I have felt about Phantom since it went on TKTS 20 or so years ago.

Phantom has almost a decade on Lion King and almost 15 years on Wicked. That is a lot of ground to make up for both shows. And that being said, both Lion King and Wicked are safe from being overtaken in their placements for the foreseeable future.

Updated On: 4/25/23 at 06:04 PM

Kad said: "Phantom has almost a decade on Lion King and almost 15 years on Wicked. That is a lot of ground to make up for both shows. And that being said, both Lion King and Wicked are safe from being overtaken in their placements for the foreseeable future."

Just wanted to reply to this and quantify what you’re saying since I kind of live for this stuff…

Wicked is currently the #4 longest-running show with 7,501 performances as of this week. Obviously, that number is going to increase over time (as will the numbers for Chicago and Lion King). But for purposes of this post, let’s just ignore who is in slots 1-4 and in what order at any given point in the next 10+ years.

The #5 longest-running show right now is Cats, which ran for 7,485 performances. So in order for a show to come immediately behind Wicked and take that #5 longest-running slot from Cats, we need to see another production run for 7,486 performances.

The next longest-running show currently on Broadway is The Book of Mormon, which is at #13 right now with 4,359 performances. In order for Mormon to overtake Cats as the #5 longest-running show, it needs to run for another 3,127 performances—which if you divide by eight performances a week is about 391 more performance weeks. That means Mormon needs to run through October 2030 in order to take slot #5.

There are only two shows behind Mormon within reasonable distance: Aladdin (currently #20; 3,131 performances) and Hamilton (currently #25; 2,574 performances). Say that Mormon closes at some point before October 2030 and these two shows keep running and try to make it to the #5 slot. Aladdin will need to run through September 2033, and Hamilton will need to run through January 2035.

All this to say: the occupants of slots 1-5 are officially set through the rest of this decade. Whether Mormon, Aladdin, or Hamilton will make it to the 2030s to try to take that #5 slot from Cats and compete with the top four longest-running shows, we will have to see!

I’m curious how much The Lion King and Wicked currently cost to operate on a weekly basis. It was being reported that Phantom cost around 1 million dollars per week, which I just find crazy. Spider-Man cost that much to run, if I recall correctly. The Lion King and Wicked just seem so massive I’d imagine they would also have huge expenses, if not more than Phantom.

It’s interesting how many people doubt Chicago’s continued lifespan. Remember that compared to almost every other musical running, Chicago costs pennies to run, and has an orchestra/cast full of people who have been in it for years or decades. With the continued stunt casting consistently renewing interest, and an easy discount ticket to grab for tourists, I would not be surprised if it eventually surpasses Phantom for a while.


In terms of Lion King v Wicked, Lion King will eventually become the new “forever running” show. It’s got a never-ending built in audience of Disney fans that spans generations, including upcoming ones, and is the most successful entertainment entity of all time. Combine that with it almost never being discounted (CoVid return not withstanding), Parents paying for premium priced seats for their kids, and global recognition, unless Nederlander or Disney decides they want to pull the plug on it, it will not die.

Updated On: 4/25/23 at 08:09 PM

There is no doubt in my mind that The Lion King will eventually surpass Phantom. I also don’t think it’s impossible for Chicago to do it, but wouldn’t view that as a sure money bet. I also don’t think it’s out of the question that Wicked also catches up to Phantom. Whether it’s also able to outlast and eventually surpass Lion King is another question that I’m not convinced is a sure thing.

I don't think Wicked is in danger of going anywhere any time soon, especially with the movies coming out next year and in 2025. Even if people are sick of it, I think that will most definitely bring new audiences to Broadway, thus guaranteeing a long run for the forseeable future.

" Chicago the movie is probably as responsible for the show’s longevity than and other factor (other than the show’s entertainment value). It will help wicked too. "

What is amazing to me is the original "Chicago" on Broadway did not even make it to 1,000 shows and the revival is over 10,000. Was the Broadway audience back then not ready for the original production to make it a huge hit or was there significant changes to the revival. I saw the revival and not the original.

Zeppie2022 said: ""Chicago the movie is probably as responsible for the show’s longevity than and other factor (other than the show’s entertainment value). It will help wicked too. "

What is amazing to me is the original "Chicago" on Broadway did not even make it to 1,000 shows and the revival is over 10,000. Was the Broadway audience back then not ready for the original production to make it a huge hit or was there significant changes to the revival. I saw the revival and not the original."

Audiences just didn't connect with it. There are many theories on why that is. The most oft-repeated theory is that it was simply too nihilistic. I do think there's some truth to that. If you've seen Fosse/Verdon there's the scene where Fosse keeps telling Chita she has to do All That Jazz darker. Rawer. Sadder. I think Chicago really became what he wanted the film version of Cabaret to be but was pulled back from. Also, no, from what I've read the only real change to Chicago is the staging.

Wait why will Hamilton close and not make it? How much longer are people giving it???