Wouldn't the producers be hoping for people like me, someone who likes original productions and wants to see something (or someone) they can't see on tour?
I was in New York in April. I bought tickets a week in advance to see Great Comet, an option that will not exist soon. I tried to get tickets for Dear Evan Hansen, but that was touch and go, as I didn't want to pay scalper's prices. We got lucky, thanks to advice from people on this board.
If those plans had fallen through, I debated what to see. We probably would have seen Sara Bareilles in Waitress, and then picked from what was left. War Paint wasn't my first choice, as the reviews seemed pretty tepid, and I'm not obsessed with Patti Lupone. But I was curious to see her and Ebersole, because they are the sort of Broadway stars you're never going to see on tour.
If we were going in the fall, with Waitress going on tour, and Great Comet, Groundhog Day,and Bandstand closed, I definitely would have considered War Paint more seriously.
Any Broadway producer betting too heavily on people like me would be foolish. But don't some shows do a little better in the fall once the summer tourist crowd leaves and the options are more limited? Unless the production is losing a lot of money each week, what's the harm in giving it a shot?