early Tony award predictions 2027 — Page 2

Ptero2 said: "

Leading Actor in a Play

I don't see anything that seems like an obvious winner here. Maybe a second trophy for Ruben Santiago-Hudson in Mix and Master? Is David Corenswet's part in Three Days of Rain substantial?
"

Bryan Cranston feels pretty strong in an otherwise "who knows" category if All My Sons does indeed come in.

CoffeeBreak said: "Best Musical

• Black Swan
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Paddington
• Warriors
• Dolly, The Heart, Wanted or Purple Rain - or none depending on votes.

Best Play

• Birthright
• Here There Are Blueberries
• Inter AliaorMontauk
• Mix andMaster

Best Revival of a Musical

• Damn Yankees
• Evita
• TBD - The Fantasticks or The Sound of Music

Best Revival of a Play

• Downstate
• Gloria
• Much Ado About Nothing
• Small Mouth Sounds

Best Actor in a Musical

• Raul Esparza- Galileo
• Neil Patrick Harris -Damn Yankees
• James Hameed&Arti Shah(jointly playing Paddington Bear) -Paddington
• Diego Andres Rodriguez -Evita
• Leading Man TBD - Purple Rain orPatrick Wilson -The Sound of Music

Best Actress in a Musical

• TBD Warriors actress - Warriors or Katie Rose Clark -Dolly
• Julianne Huff - Damn Yankees
• Jasmine Amy Rogers -The Sound of Music
• Rachel Zegler -Evita
• Melanie Moore -Black Swan

"

Are there rumors of a Black Swan transfer?

They're probably not that far off if Black Swan, Button and Birthright come in.

The problem with that is she's not a good actress. She's a decent singer/performer to do musicals - but she's not an actress (case and point - The Collaboration and Seared) - and lacks star quality. i'm hoping she's better than what I've seen of her in plays before, truly. The show needs that.

Over on reddit :

"I hated it and left and intermission. I was not alone when I left. The actor who played the female JAG officer from internal affairs was, in my opinion, just terrible. Seemed to me to be acting at HS level, despite her impressive resume.
The play was dwarfed in the Beaumont. "

Updated On: 10/9/26 at 07:57 PM

I would be surprised if any of the Warriors ladies are ruled Leading. At least on the album it felt like a true ensemble piece.

Anyone know the likelihood of the Paddington actors being allowed to be considered together? I remember the rules changed for the Matilda actresses, and I believe the committee would have to specially vote to allow them to be nominated for one role.

DiegoKoch said: "Do we know if this is happening at Radio City?"

Ask Fred Mason (you) who started this thread.

malcs98 said: "Here’s a big question I’m curious about do we think Paranormal Activity would be eligible for a special Tony Award?"

Don’t know about that but it should easily get nominated for sound, lighting and set design.

Play Featured Actress

• Sarah Paulson -Small Mouth Sounds
• Erin Morton - School Girls, or the African Mean Girls Play
• Allison Janney -Other Desert Cities
• Liza Colón-Zayas -Downstate

"

I love a list full of shows that haven't even opened. We should wait with these list. The Heart is transferring in the Spring as well. Will be quite the shake up.

TotallyEffed said: "malcs98 said: "Here’s a big question I’m curious about do we think Paranormal Activity would be eligible for a special Tony Award?”



For?"

It’s special effects work…or the technical elements of that show (kinda like Stranger Things: The First Shadow, which coincidentally is from the same team)

TexanAddams18 said: "Am I the only one who thought Patina Miller was the tony nom from School Girls?"

I actually think Denee Benton and/or Jasmine Amy Rogers have the better chance here

Why are the awards happening a week later than usual? They’re usually the first Sunday in June, you’d think it would be on the 6th, this year it’s on June 13th.

Here are my big swings by category:

BEST PLAY

I think this is still fairly wide open, with Birthright as a likely frontrunner should it transfer. I'm doubtful Downstate ends up in this category since it's a brand-new production. I wouldn't discount Paranormal Activity from making a run here given that it's been successful in a way that no horror play has been in recent memory. David Hare, Dominique Morrisseau, and Moisés Kaufman are all past Tony nominees (with Blueberries a Pulitzer finalist and Inter Alia an Olivier nominee) so there's really nothing at this point I would discount without seeing the new ones. (And then Lost Lear which I've heard is really good and weird, so we'll see!)

BEST MUSICAL

This seems to be Warriors vs. Paddington with Benjamin Button in the mix only if Warriors is really disappointing onstage (and if BB transfers, obviously). My gut says Paddington takes this (and that the jukeboxes fare better than Wanted and Galileo come nominations).

BEST PLAY REVIVAL

This category is unhinged. At this point, I think Downstate, Gloria, Much Ado, School Girls, Rhinoceros, and Small Mouth Sounds are the most likely nominees, with Awake and Sing! just behind. I think we can rule out A Few Good Men, It's A Wonderful Life, Other Desert Cities, and The Imaginary Invalid based on their critical receptions (and The Amish Project is unlikely as a solo show). If All My Sons comes in, all bets are off — it's understandable why Downstate wants that Best Play categorization so badly!

BEST MUSICAL REVIVAL

I have a feeling Damn Yankees ekes this one out given the strong reception in Arena Stage at DC. There may be some Jamie Lloyd fatigue by the spring and an opportunity to award Zegler instead of the production itself. Much will depend on how Lear DeBessonet reanimates Sound of Music, of course.

BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY

I think this is going to come down to Tony Shalhoub, Jonathan Groff, and Ruben Santiago-Hudson. I'd love to see Santiago-Hudson pull this off after a tremendous performance last season, too, but I give the edge to Shalhoub at this point. I guess Billy Crystal might be nominated here. If All My Sons transfers, Bryan Cranston also becomes a major player.

BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY

This seems likely to be Rosamund Pike vs. Kara Young vs. Jessica Chastain — if the Kara Young role is markedly more dramatic than the two comedic parts she won for, I can see her taking it. Otherwise, I think it may be Chastain's moment (it would be interesting if she loses AGAIN to the star of a Suzie Miller play, though).

BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL

With yesterday's Purple Rain announcement, I have to say Jordan Fisher is the frontrunner. Andrew Durand will have a good shot if Benjamin Button transfers, and Raul Esparza will almost certainly be nominated, but I can't see him winning if Galileo has a short run. It also remains to be seen how James Hameed and Arti Shah are categorized as Paddington's co-performers.

BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL

I know the narrative is set up as Rachel Zegler vs. Jasmine Amy Rogers, but I find it hard to imagine Zegler losing — it's already a massively acclaimed performance, and Maria is a role that will probably recede a bit in powerhouse comparison.

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY

Given the quality of his performance off-Broadway, I think Downstate's K. Todd Freeman comes into this season as a frontrunner. (Although let's give Danny Burstein another nomination!)

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY

From what we've seen so far, if the eligibility committee places Denée Benton in this category, she'd be pretty competitive. Obviously lots still to see, but Jessica Hecht does have a role that's been nominated before (Awake and Sing!) so she may have an early edge. The big question is how the Small Mouth Sounds stars do (and if they all get placed in featured).

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL

The role Tony Hale is playing in Paddington won the Olivier this year so he may be surprisingly competitive. Interestingly, Austin Scott's role in Damn Yankees has been categorized in both Leading and Featured categories at the Tonys for past productions — if he lands here, he'd be a strong contender (as would Diego Andres Rodriguez in Evita).

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL

The Warriors women will definitely fill out some of this category, but I expect Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer, Karen Ziemba, and/or Jessie Mueller (if she's considered featured) to contend for Paddington here, too. Let's see who the Mother Abbess is as well, but this feels like a Paddington vs. Warriors battle.