#1
Posted: 9/30/26 at 8:12pm
Let’s have some early guesses of who might win at the 2027 Tony Awards. It’s turning out to be a great season all around!
early Tony award predictions 2027
#2
Posted: 9/30/26 at 8:56pm
Musical wise, it’ll be interesting to see if Warriors, Galileo, or Wanted are able to compete with the juggernaut that is Paddington.
My gut goes with the bear, especially in many of the design categories, and featured actor/ actress going to Curry/ Clyde
#3
Posted: 9/30/26 at 9:14pm
Fred Mason said: "Let’s have some early guesses of who might win at the 2027 Tony Awards. It’s turning out to be a great season all around!"
What is the matter with you?
#4
Posted: 9/30/26 at 11:03pm
Fred Mason said: "Let’s have some early guesses of who might win at the 2027 Tony Awards. It’s turning out to be a great season all around!"
Oh STFU already.
#5
Posted: 9/30/26 at 11:45pm
I know Flash is super annoying but for an awards junkie like myself, I am already thinking about what the Tonys could look like. Feels like it could be a Paddington vs. Benjamin Button vs. Warriors showdown but obviously a lot could change and more shows could announce. Evita and The Sound of Music will probably be threats in a lot of categories too where they are eligible.
#6
Posted: 10/1/26 at 1:06am
I would think Rachel Zegler and Rosamund Pike are front runners for Lead Actress in a Musical/Play based on their UK reviews. But still could have a challenger!
Lead Actress Musical Options - Rachel Zegler, Jasmine Amy Rogers, Solea Pfeiffer, Liisi LaFontaine
Lead Actress Play Options - Rosamund Pike, Laura Linney, Hayley Atwell, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Yvonne Strahovski
#7
Posted: 10/1/26 at 8:37am
Lead Actor in a Musical is looking light
Raúl Esparza - Galileo
NPH - Damn Yankees
Someone from Purple Rain?
Diego Rodriguez - Evita
Whoever plays the lead in The Full Monty?
Captain Von Trapp?
One of the Fantasticks Boys? El Gallo?
#8
Posted: 10/1/26 at 9:16am
Burning-hot takes at this point in the season, but WARRIORS (obviously the hottest ticket in town) easily wins best musical, score, and book, and BIRTHRIGHT — having transferred in the spring — takes home best play.
EVITA wins best revival of a musical, Rachel and Diego also take home awards. Director of a musical is a tight two-horse race between Jamie Lloyd and Jenny Koons.
ALL MY SONS, Bryan Cranston, and Rosamund Pike replicate their Olivier wins stateside.
As for PADDINGTON, which fails to live up to expectations having received mostly mixed reviews in the States, the only Tony it has a shot at winning is costume design — that is, unless the Paddington voice + onstage portrayer get honored with a noncompetitive award (which is certainly possible).
And finally, the Tony ceremony itself airs on YouTube for the first time. Staying true to the lyrics of the previous opening number, Lady Gaga hosts.
Imagine if we could tell everyone here that Liberty Mutual customizes car insurance to save people hundreds. (LiMu squawks)
Updated On: 10/1/26 at 09:16 AM
#9
Posted: 10/1/26 at 9:28am
EDSOSLO858 said: "Burning-hot takes at this point in the season, but WARRIORS (obviously the hottest ticket in town)easily wins best musical, score, and book,and BIRTHRIGHT — having transferred in the spring — takes home best play.
EVITA winsbest revival of a musical, Rachel and Diego also take home awards. Director of a musical is a tight two-horse race between Jamie Lloyd and Jenny Koons.
ALL MY SONS, Bryan Cranston, and Rosamund Pike replicate their Olivier wins stateside.
As for PADDINGTON, which fails to live up to expectations having receivedmostly mixedreviews in the States, the only Tony it has a shot at winning is costume design — that is, unless the Paddington voice + onstage portrayer get honored with a noncompetitive award (which is certainly possible).
And finally, the Tony ceremony itself airs on YouTube for the first time. Staying true tothe lyrics of the previous opening number,Lady Gaga hosts.
"
I feel like Evita is going to be less well received here than in the UK. I also think it will be a horse race between Jasmine Amy Rodgers and Rachel Zegler.
#10
Posted: 10/1/26 at 11:15am
Even Paddington had some critics pointing things out they didn’t like about it, but it got through because it’s a beloved character over there. I agree, I don’t think it’s as well received here. Evita also had its detractors in London, and for sure won’t be well received here. I think Rachel will have a positive reception and be a contender for the award.
#11
Posted: 10/1/26 at 11:21am
Best Musical is likely Warriors vs. Paddington. With Benjamin Button and The Heart rounding out the category. If we end up with enough shows to produce 5 nominees, then the fifth and final spot is probably either Wanted or Dolly.
For Musical Revival, Evita has the biggest buzz coming in. So it could steamroll its way through. But always a chance voters think "we already did this" with Sunset. That would make room for Sound of Music or Damn Yankees to swoop in, depending on how those turn out. Right now we are only guaranteed 3 nominees in the category, and sight unseen those look like the 3 (unless Yankees disappoints and Full Monty is something special, in which case those swap places).
Plays are too hard to predict this early because a large chunk of the competition hasn't announced yet. But I think at this early stage, Downstate, Gloria, and School Girls look good for revival of a play nominations, pending competition.
For Musical Revival, Evita has the biggest buzz coming in. So it could steamroll its way through. But always a chance voters think "we already did this" with Sunset. That would make room for Sound of Music or Damn Yankees to swoop in, depending on how those turn out. Right now we are only guaranteed 3 nominees in the category, and sight unseen those look like the 3 (unless Yankees disappoints and Full Monty is something special, in which case those swap places).
Plays are too hard to predict this early because a large chunk of the competition hasn't announced yet. But I think at this early stage, Downstate, Gloria, and School Girls look good for revival of a play nominations, pending competition.
#12
Posted: 10/1/26 at 11:45am
If Wanted is still running in May, no way it doesn’t get nominated. It’s so good.
#13
Posted: 10/1/26 at 2:12pm
EDSOSLO858 said: "Burning-hot takes at this point in the season, but WARRIORS (obviously the hottest ticket in town)easily wins best musical, score, and book,and BIRTHRIGHT — having transferred in the spring — takes home best play."
Have there been any signals at all that BIRTHRIGHT is transferring to Broadway (or anywhere)? I'd love to see that happen, but haven't heard a thing.
#14
Posted: 10/1/26 at 3:11pm
If an actress comes through with a very strong performance in a musical that is actually well acted then Rachel could lose out. Rachel gives a great performance, but its not what I would call an amazing acting performance.its more like an amazing concert performance. Great vocals but theres not a lot of depth or range there.
I also suspect the reaction to Evita might be more muted. Especially as Pattis performance seems more sacred over there.
Likewise Im not sure how Paddington is going to go down. As good as it is, it isn't perfect and I think will have an uphill battle to beat Warriors and all the LMM love and hype.
#15
Posted: 10/1/26 at 5:24pm
I am at least a little skeptical about Warriors. Yes, there’s hype about the show because of Miranda’s involvement but the score, based on the album, is probably his least accessible to the average Broadway audience. The direction is a mystery, and without Miranda, everyone would think of it as another B-movie adaptation with a twist.
Warriors might end up being terrific on stage (as someone who plans to buy tickets in advance, I hope so) but I’m not ready to hand it all the major awards just yet.
#16
Posted: 10/4/26 at 10:49pm
Musical
I see this going to Warriors pretty easily, but Benjamin Button is a dark horse if it transfers this season. I would be pretty surprised if Paddington wins.
Musical Revival
I don't see voters choosing to award Evita after having already given the award to the better received Lloyd/ALW collaboration a couple years ago. I'll guess Damn Yankees for now. I know that theater people have been a little cold towards this because of the cast overhaul and it no longer being in the round, but I heard a lot of raves about the production and I don't think this cast lacks in talent.
New Play
Nothing announced yet really screams Best New Play to me... I could see Here There Are Blueberries getting it by default if there's nothing that exciting. But perhaps the winner of this one hasn't been announced yet?
Play Revival
I would love to guess Downstate here but due to it's early closing it'll probably go the way of Little Bear Ridge Road and just be happy to be nominated. Not familiar with Gloria but I would never count a BJJ play out. Three Days of Rain also has some nice pedigrees behind it.
Leading Actor in a Play
I don't see anything that seems like an obvious winner here. Maybe a second trophy for Ruben Santiago-Hudson in Mix and Master? Is David Corenswet's part in Three Days of Rain substantial?
Leading Actress in a Play
Rosamund Pike seems like an obvious prediction. I saw this in London and it's exactly the type of role that's designed to win someone a Tony.
Featured Actor in a Play
K. Todd Freeman hive RISE UP!! I'll reserve my judgment until I've seen everything of course, but it's hard to imagine anyone beating out his performance for me if it's at the level of the Playwrights Horizons production, and he's a beloved veteran who has put in the work for decades and never won.
Featured Actress in a Play
I would love to Denee Benton take this, but the early run will probably hurt her. I'm not sure how big the roles are in Awake and Sing, but Jessica Hecht is overdue and is in a role that has been nominated before.
Leading Actor in a Musical
You gotta like Raul's chances here if Galileo manages to not be a total flop. NPH also has a nice role in a show that will definitely still be running come ceremony time. Maybe even Andrew Durand's time to shine if Button transfers?
Leading Actress in a Musical
I'm here for the Rachel Zegler/Jasmine Amy Rogers two horse race. Don't see anyone else that looks like the same level as contender as those two heavyweights.
Featured Actor in a Musical
Whoever plays Curry in Paddington (Gavin Lee?) seems like a good possibility. I'll throw in Austin Scott in Damn Yankees and whoever plays Luther in Warriors (which I'm pretty sure will be Casey Likes judging from the workshop cast)
Featured Actress in a Musical
Whoever plays Millicent in Paddington (Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer?) is a strong favorite until proven otherwise. She gets the best song in the show which is a good formula for featured acting Tony awards. I could also see one of the more prominent warriors (Julia Harriman as Mercy?) being in the running.
Updated On: 10/4/26 at 10:49 PM
#17
Posted: 10/5/26 at 7:05am
It is going to be a battle between the Downstate fellas and Paul Giamatti in Rhinoceros! I saw Giamatti in Rhinoceros at ART, and his transformation at the end of the first act is extraordinary. He gives a masterclass in physical transformation. It will be interesting to see what category they place him in. He'd be hard to beat in Featured Actor. Even though Zero Mostel won Best Leading Actor for the same role, the character isn't in the second act, so I think there's a strong case to be made for Featured. Having also seen K. Todd Freeman and Francis Guinan in Downstate many years ago, I really don't know how the male acting in a play categories are going to shake out! I'd be thrilled if Giamatti and Freeman both walked away with Tonys. And Guinan received a well-deserved nomination.
#18
Posted: 10/5/26 at 8:32am
Downstate really ought to be considered a new play. And it should win Best Play.
#19
Posted: 10/5/26 at 10:24am
Fred Mason said: "Downstate really ought to be considered a new play. And it should win Best Play."
I actually suspect it will be. To me, this feels a lot like when Between Riverside and Crazy finally had its Broadway premiere and was (rightfully) considered a new play. With the same lead actors reprising their earlier work and only being 4 years since it was at Playwrights, even though it's a new staging, my guess is this will still be considered new.
#20
Posted: 10/5/26 at 10:50am
I don't see Downstate being considered a revival. It premiered off-Broadway in 2018 and we have to factor in Covid... it's still a new play.
#21
Posted: 10/6/26 at 6:04am
Early and probably way off on a number of levels, but here goes:
Musical
- Dolly
- Galileo
- Paddington
- Warriors
Play
- 860
- Birthright (tbd)
- Here There Are Blueberries
- Paranormal Activity
- Montauk
Musical Revival
- Damn Yankees
- Evita
- The Sound of Music
Play Revival
- Downstate
- A Few Good Men
- School Girls, or the African Mean Girls Play
- Much Ado About Nothing
- Small Mouth Sounds
Musical Actor
- Raul Esparza - Galileo
- Neil Patrick Harris - Damn Yankees
- James Olivias - Evita
- Patrick Wilson (tbd) - The Sound of Music
Musical Actress
- Katie Rose Clark - Dolly
- Jasmine Amy Rogers - The Sound of Music
- Rachel Zegler - Evita
- Swan Actress (tbd) - Warriors
- Solea Pfeiffer - Wanted
Play Actor
- Billy Crystal - 860
- Bill Irwin - The Imaginary Invalid
- Tom Hiddleson - Much Ado About Nothing
- Anthony Mackie - Macbeth
- Martin Freeman - Small Mouth Sounds
Play Actress
- Jasmine Amy Rogers - School Girls, or the African Mean Girls Play
- Laura Linney - Montauk
- Julia Roberts - Small Mouth Sounds
- Hayley Atwell - Much Ado About Nothing
- Kara Young - Mix and Master
Musical Featured Actor
- John Behlmann - Dolly
- Diego Rodriguez - Evita
- Luther Actor (TBD) - Warriors
- Morris Actor (TBD) - Purple Rain
Musical Featured Actress
- Mercy Actress (TBD) - Warriors
- Fox or Ajax Actress (TBD) - Warriors
- Mother Abbess Actress (TBD) - The Sound of Music
- Norah Nunes - Dolly
Play Featured Actor
- Titus Burgess - It's a Wonderful Life Radio Play
- K. Todd Freeman - Downstate
- Paul Rudd - Small Mouth Sounds
- Mason Alexander Park - Much Ado About Nothing
- Bradley Whitford - A Few Good Men
Play Featured Actress
- Sarah Paulson - Small Mouth Sounds
- Erin Morton - School Girls, or the African Mean Girls Play
- Allison Janney - Other Desert Cities
- Liza Colón-Zayas - Downstate
#22
Posted: 10/6/26 at 7:01am
Where do we come down on the Leading/Featured argument for Che? Mandy Patinkin won the Featured Actor Tony for Che and he was against Bob Gunton as Peron in the same field. My guess is they didn't push Patinkin for Leading because of Jim Dale who was the favourite to win as Barnum. Since then, Che has generally been considered a Lead performance. Though Philip Quast was bizarrely placed in Best Actor at the Oliviers in 2007 for his Peron.
#23
Posted: 10/6/26 at 10:10am
What’s telling about these predictions is that the seers have mostly not seen the performance yet. They’re thinking like producers, agents, critics, and fans, not audience members or creative artists who have experienced and created something live in a moment of time. And the former are probably correct as that is the mindset that throws awards at artists.
Updated On: 10/6/26 at 10:10 AM
#24
Posted: 10/6/26 at 10:24am
bear882 said: "I am at least a little skeptical aboutWarriors. Yes, there’s hype about the show because of Miranda’s involvement but the score, based on the album, is probably his least accessible to the average Broadway audience. The direction is a mystery, and without Miranda, everyone would think of it as another B-movie adaptation witha twist.
Warriorsmight end up being terrific on stage (as someone who plans to buy tickets in advance, I hope so) but I’m not ready to hand it all the major awards just yet."
Is Warriors going straight to Broadway? Did it have a regional tryout?
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