Broadway Legend Joined: 7/29/08
Yup. It's not like last year at all.
Featured Actor Joined: 9/26/15
Sorry if some of my play predictions seem a bit off. I honestly have no idea about them, especially the tech ones.
Best Play
Eclipsed Author: Danai Gurira
The Father Author: Florian Zeller
The Humans Author: Stephen Karam (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
King Charles III Author: Mike Bartlett (SHOULD WIN)
Best Musical
Bright Star
Hamilton (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
School of Rock-The Musical
Shuffle Along
Waitress
Best Revival of a Play
Arthur Miller's The Crucible
Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge (WILL WIN)
Blackbird
Long Day's Journey Into Night (SHOULD WIN)
Noises Off
Best Revival of a Musical
The Color Purple
Fiddler on the Roof
She Loves Me (WILL WIN)
Spring Awakening (SHOULD WIN)
Best Book of a Musical
Bright Star - Steve Martin
Hamilton - Lin-Manuel Miranda (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
School of Rock-The Musical - Julian Fellowes
Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed - George C. Wolfe
Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
Bright Star - Music: Steve Martin and Edie Brickell, Lyrics: Edie Brickell
Hamilton - Music & Lyrics: Lin-Manuel Miranda (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
School of Rock-The Musical - Music: Andrew Lloyd Webber, Lyrics: Glenn Slater
Waitress - Music & Lyrics: Sara Bareilles
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
Gabriel Byrne, Long Day's Journey Into Night (WILL WIN)
Jeff Daniels, Blackbird
Frank Langella, The Father (SHOULD/MIGHT WIN)
Tim Pigott-Smith, King Charles III
Mark Strong, Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
Jessica Lange, Long Day's Journey Into Night (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Laurie Metcalf, Misery
Lupita Nyong'o, Eclipsed
Sophie Okonedo, Arthur Miller's The Crucible
Michelle Williams, Blackbird
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Alex Brightman, School of Rock-The Musical
Danny Burstein, Fiddler on the Roof
Zachary Levi, She Loves Me
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Laura Benanti, She Loves Me
Carmen Cusack, Bright Star
Cynthia Erivo, The Color Purple (WILL WIN)
Jessie Mueller, Waitress
Phillipa Soo, Hamilton (SHOULD/MIGHT WIN)
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
Reed Birney, The Humans (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Bill Camp, Arthur Miller's The Crucible
David Furr, Noises Off
Richard Goulding, King Charles III
Michael Shannon, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
Pascale Armand, Eclipsed (SHOULD/MIGHT WIN)
Megan Hilty, Noises Off (WILL WIN)
Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans
Andrea Martin, Noises Off
Saycon Sengbloh, Eclipsed
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
Daveed Diggs, Hamilton (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Brandon Victor Dixon, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Christopher Fitzgerald, Waitress
Jonathan Groff, Hamilton
Christopher Jackson, Hamilton
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Renée Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Jane Krakowski, She Loves Me
Jennifer Simard, Disaster! (Good luck now, Miss Simard)
Adrienne Warren, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Best Scenic Design of a Play
Beowulf Boritt, Thérèse Raquin
Christopher Oram, Hughie
Jan Versweyveld, Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge (SHOULD WIN)
David Zinn, The Humans (WILL WIN)
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Es Devlin & Finn Ross, American Psycho
David Korins, Hamilton (WILL WIN)
Santo Loquasto, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
David Rockwell, She Loves Me (SHOULD WIN)
Best Costume Design of a Play
Jane Greenwood, Long Day's Journey Into Night (WILL WIN)
Michael Krass, Noises Off
Clint Ramos, Eclipsed
Tom Scutt, King Charles III (SHOULD WIN)
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Gregg Barnes, Tuck Everlasting
Jeff Mahshie, She Loves Me
Ann Roth, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Paul Tazewell, Hamilton (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Natasha Katz, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Justin Townsend, The Humans
Jan Versweyveld, Arthur Miller's The Crucible
Jan Versweyveld, Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Howell Binkley, Hamilton (WILL WIN)
Jules Fisher & Peggy Eisenhauer, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Ben Stanton, Spring Awakening (SHOULD WIN)
Justin Townsend, American Psycho (SHOULD WIN)
Best Direction of a Play
Rupert Goold, King Charles III
Jonathan Kent, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Joe Mantello, The Humans
Liesl Tommy, Eclipsed
Ivo Van Hove, Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Best Direction of a Musical
Michael Arden, Spring Awakening (SHOULD WIN)
John Doyle, The Color Purple
Scott Ellis, She Loves Me
Thomas Kail, Hamilton (WILL WIN)
George C. Wolfe, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Best Choreography
Andy Blankenbuehler, Hamilton (WILL WIN)
Savion Glover, Shuffle Along (SHOULD/MIGHT WIN)
Hofesh Shechter, Fiddler on the Roof
Randy Skinner, Dames at Sea (LOL not a chance)
Sergio Trujillo, On Your Feet! The Story of Emilio and Gloria Estefan
Best Orchestrations
August Eriksmoen, Bright Star
Larry Hochman, She Loves Me
Alex Lacamoire, Hamilton (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Daryl Waters, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
How many Tony voters do you know personally, neonlights and BwayConcierge? *eye eoll*
Broadway Legend Joined: 8/31/15
The difference between this year and last is that last year people were talking about who was going to win out of Kuhn and Lucas before the nominations even came out. This year Daveed has been the favorite for a while, and Groff and Jackson seemed like potential nominees but far from a sure thing.
I would be very surprised if Daveed didn't take that award home.
I love reading people's opinions of who should and will win these awards, but there's got to be a more user friendly polling format we could use! Anyone want to make it into a poll?
Broadway Legend Joined: 7/29/08
GreasedLightning said: "How many Tony voters do you know personally, neonlights and BwayConcierge? *eye eoll* "
About five. How about you?
Predicted wins in bold, potential spoiler wins in italics.
Best Play
Eclipsed
The Father
The Humans
King Charles III
Best Musical
Bright Star
Hamilton
School of Rock-The Musical
Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Waitress
Best Revival of a Play
Arthur Miller's The Crucible
Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge
Blackbird
Long Day's Journey Into Night
Noises Off
Best Revival of a Musical
The Color Purple
Fiddler on the Roof
She Loves Me
Spring Awakening
Best Book of a Musical
Bright Star - Steve Martin
Hamilton - Lin-Manuel Miranda
School of Rock-The Musical - Julian Fellowes
Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed - George C. Wolfe
Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
Bright Star - Music: Steve Martin and Edie Brickell, Lyrics: Edie Brickell
Hamilton - Music & Lyrics: Lin-Manuel Miranda
School of Rock-The Musical - Music: Andrew Lloyd Webber, Lyrics: Glenn Slater
Waitress - Music & Lyrics: Sara Bareilles
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
Gabriel Byrne, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Jeff Daniels, Blackbird
Frank Langella, The Father
Tim Pigott-Smith, King Charles III
Mark Strong, Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
Jessica Lange, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Laurie Metcalf, Misery
Lupita Nyong'o, Eclipsed
Sophie Okonedo, Arthur Miller's The Crucible
Michelle Williams, Blackbird
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Alex Brightman, School of Rock-The Musical
Danny Burstein, Fiddler on the Roof
Zachary Levi, She Loves Me
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Laura Benanti, She Loves Me
Carmen Cusack, Bright Star
Cynthia Erivo, The Color Purple
Jessie Mueller, Waitress
Phillipa Soo, Hamilton
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
Reed Birney, The Humans
Bill Camp, Arthur Miller's The Crucible
David Furr, Noises Off
Richard Goulding, King Charles III
Michael Shannon, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
Pascale Armand, Eclipsed
Megan Hilty, Noises Off
Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans
Andrea Martin, Noises Off
Saycon Sengbloh, Eclipsed
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
Daveed Diggs, Hamilton
Brandon Victor Dixon, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Christopher Fitzgerald, Waitress
Jonathan Groff, Hamilton
Christopher Jackson, Hamilton
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Renée Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton
Jane Krakowski, She Loves Me
Jennifer Simard, Disaster!
Adrienne Warren, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Best Scenic Design of a Play
Beowulf Boritt, Thérèse Raquin
Christopher Oram, Hughie
Jan Versweyveld, Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge
David Zinn, The Humans
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Es Devlin & Finn Ross, American Psycho
David Korins, Hamilton
Santo Loquasto, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
David Rockwell, She Loves Me
Best Costume Design of a Play
Jane Greenwood, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Michael Krass, Noises Off
Clint Ramos, Eclipsed
Tom Scutt, King Charles III
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Gregg Barnes, Tuck Everlasting
Jeff Mahshie, She Loves Me
Ann Roth, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Paul Tazewell, Hamilton
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Natasha Katz, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Justin Townsend, The Humans
Jan Versweyveld, Arthur Miller's The Crucible
Jan Versweyveld, Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Howell Binkley, Hamilton
Jules Fisher & Peggy Eisenhauer, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Ben Stanton, Spring Awakening
Justin Townsend, American Psycho
Best Direction of a Play
Rupert Goold, King Charles III
Jonathan Kent, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Joe Mantello, The Humans
Liesl Tommy, Eclipsed
Ivo Van Hove, Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge
Best Direction of a Musical
Michael Arden, Spring Awakening
John Doyle, The Color Purple
Scott Ellis, She Loves Me
Thomas Kail, Hamilton
George C. Wolfe, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Best Choreography
Andy Blankenbuehler, Hamilton
Savion Glover, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Hofesh Shechter, Fiddler on the Roof
Randy Skinner, Dames at Sea
Sergio Trujillo, On Your Feet! The Story of Emilio and Gloria Estefan
Best Orchestrations
August Eriksmoen, Bright Star
Larry Hochman, She Loves Me
Alex Lacamoire, Hamilton
Daryl Waters, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
I think the Play categories are really tough to predict this year, due to a high quality of work overall and there not being any clear frontrunner in most of the categories (especially performance). I feel may be underestimating how much voters like Eclipsed, which did well with nominators and seems well-liked. There is a sense of Houdyshell and Birney being "due" for award recognition, both being historically very dependable and well-liked and in roles that people would feel good rewarding.
Lead Actor and Actress in a play, I'm not sure. Lange has certainly made a massive career comeback and is delivering a respected performance. Lupita is young, glamorous, and chose this new play as her major starring role post-Oscar win. I think it's between them. Okonedo's performance has been divisive, and Williams and Metcalfe should be happy with their nominations.
As for Actor- I am really not sure, even of my prediction of Mark Strong. But I do think Strong and Byrne are the frontrunners. Langella is in a play that doesn't seem to have much popularity or traction; Daniels is dependable but this isn't a Tony win; and Pigott-Smith is in a play now long closed and seems to have dropped out of much discussion.
Kad's predictions are closest to mine, but for the following exceptions: I still pray that the Tonys honor Ann Roth's costumes and Savion Glover's choreography for SHUFFLE ALONG.
I did mark them both down as the most likely spoilers. It's just a question of how strong Hamilton's sweep will be (I think it will be quite strong).
I think of those two, Hamilton is more likely to lose Choreography. Despite being a very movement heavy piece, it doesn't manage the "wow" factor the way Glover's does. Glover also has several extended dance sequences, whereas Blankenbuehler does not.
On the flip side, I think Tazewell's costumes for Hamilton manage to hit an iconic cord, with a distinctive look that becomes instantly recognizable for the show. Roth's costumes for Shuffle Along are indeed gorgeous (and numerous!) and evoke and recreate the era superbly. But instantly iconic is a powerful thing to beat.
Kad, your predictions are spot on. I do hope that Nyong'o beats Lange but I think Lange's status as a veteran actress will lead her to the win.
Choreography might be the most interesting race of the night, how cool is that?
I'm putting the following in a spoiler box only because it's a petty rant and most people will not want to be bothered with it. Read at your own risk.
It makes me want to scream* with confusion and frustration that King Charles III is not the favorite to win every award they can possibly throw at it. To me, the fact that The Humans is likely to win Best Play instead of KC3 is analogous to School of Rock beating Hamilton for Best Musical (at least in terms of how I view the quality of the material -- I'm not taking the Hamilton-mania into account in that analogy).
I know King Charles III is closed and therefore has a disadvantage, but I'm just so befuddled by the fact that people find The Humans to be worthy of so much attention compared to KC3. I've held a minority opinion plenty of times in my life, but usually I can at least UNDERSTAND why the majority of people feel the way they do. The Humans certainly wasn't bad, but I'm just genuinely at a loss for why it has garnered this much attention.
*not literally. I'm a sane person with my priorities straight. It's just very irritating to me.
This is just my opinion. I know many disagree with me. I'm just venting. I'm sorry.
Updated On: 5/5/16 at 01:42 PM
I think a lot of people are finding a lot of resonance in The Humans' themes and its accurate depiction of contemporary American life. It is not a political play, but it depicts the things that make people hold the views they do. Given the current climate of the country, I am not surprised The Humans has found acclaim and audience favor.
Am I the only person out there who thinks Carmen Cusack deserves to win over Cynthia Erivo? It's fine if I am but I am surprised-- Cusack's performance stayed with me for weeks. Erivo played the role stunningly, but I was still much more deeply affected by Cusack.
For the record, I do "predict" Erivo will win, but I am not convinced she is the most deserving.
I would agree with that. I think it's very easy for lots of people to see their own families represented in The Humans. In particular, Deirdre had an almost eerie resemblance to my mother. I also think King Charles III was an excellent play, but it's so heavily based on knowledge of British government and the history of the Windsors that I don't think most Americans find the play as compelling as a British audience might.
Best Play
Eclipsed Author: Danai Gurira (SHOULD WIN)
The Father Author: Florian Zeller
The Humans Author: Stephen Karam (WILL WIN)
King Charles III Author: Mike Bartlett
Best Musical
Bright Star
Hamilton (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
School of Rock-The Musical
Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Waitress
Best Revival of a Play
Arthur Miller's The Crucible
Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge (WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN)
Blackbird
Long Day's Journey Into Night
Noises Off
Best Revival of a Musical
The Color Purple (SHOULD WIN)
Fiddler on the Roof
She Loves Me (WILL WIN)
Spring Awakening
Best Book of a Musical
Bright Star - Steve Martin
Hamilton - Lin-Manuel Miranda (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
School of Rock-The Musical - Julian Fellowes
Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed - George C. Wolfe
Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
Bright Star - Music: Steve Martin and Edie Brickell, Lyrics: Edie Brickell
Hamilton - Music & Lyrics: Lin-Manuel Miranda (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
School of Rock-The Musical - Music: Andrew Lloyd Webber, Lyrics: Glenn Slater
Waitress - Music & Lyrics: Sara Bareilles
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
Gabriel Byrne, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Jeff Daniels, Blackbird
Frank Langella, The Father (WILL WIN)
Tim Pigott-Smith, King Charles III
Mark Strong, Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge (SHOULD WIN)
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
Jessica Lange, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Laurie Metcalf, Misery
Lupita Nyong'o, Eclipsed
Sophie Okonedo, Arthur Miller's The Crucible (WILL WIN)
Michelle Williams, Blackbird (SHOULD WIN)
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Alex Brightman, School of Rock-The Musical
Danny Burstein, Fiddler on the Roof
Zachary Levi, She Loves Me
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Laura Benanti, She Loves Me
Carmen Cusack, Bright Star
Cynthia Erivo, The Color Purple (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Jessie Mueller, Waitress
Phillipa Soo, Hamilton
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
Reed Birney, The Humans (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Bill Camp, Arthur Miller's The Crucible
David Furr, Noises Off
Richard Goulding, King Charles III
Michael Shannon, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
Pascale Armand, Eclipsed (WILL WIN)
Megan Hilty, Noises Off
Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (SHOULD WIN)
Andrea Martin, Noises Off
Saycon Sengbloh, Eclipsed
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
Daveed Diggs, Hamilton (SHOULD WIN)
Brandon Victor Dixon, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Christopher Fitzgerald, Waitress
Jonathan Groff, Hamilton
Christopher Jackson, Hamilton (WILL WIN)
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Renée Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Jane Krakowski, She Loves Me
Jennifer Simard, Disaster!
Adrienne Warren, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Best Scenic Design of a Play
Beowulf Boritt, Thérèse Raquin (WILL WIN)
Christopher Oram, Hughie
Jan Versweyveld, Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge (SHOULD WIN)
David Zinn, The Humans
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Es Devlin & Finn Ross, American Psycho
David Korins, Hamilton (WILL WIN)
Santo Loquasto, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
David Rockwell, She Loves Me (SHOULD WIN)
Best Costume Design of a Play
Jane Greenwood, Long Day's Journey Into Night (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Michael Krass, Noises Off
Clint Ramos, Eclipsed
Tom Scutt, King Charles III
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Gregg Barnes, Tuck Everlasting (SHOULD WIN)
Jeff Mahshie, She Loves Me
Ann Roth, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Paul Tazewell, Hamilton (WILL WIN)
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Natasha Katz, Long Day's Journey Into Night (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Justin Townsend, The Humans
Jan Versweyveld, Arthur Miller's The Crucible
Jan Versweyveld, Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Howell Binkley, Hamilton (WILL WIN)
Jules Fisher & Peggy Eisenhauer, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Ben Stanton, Spring Awakening (SHOULD WIN)
Justin Townsend, American Psycho
Best Direction of a Play
Rupert Goold, King Charles III
Jonathan Kent, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Joe Mantello, The Humans (SHOULD WIN)
Liesl Tommy, Eclipsed
Ivo Van Hove, Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge (WILL WIN)
Best Direction of a Musical
Michael Arden, Spring Awakening
John Doyle, The Color Purple (SHOULD WIN)
Scott Ellis, She Loves Me
Thomas Kail, Hamilton (WILL WIN)
George C. Wolfe, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Best Choreography
Andy Blankenbuehler, Hamilton (WILL WIN)
Savion Glover, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed (SHOULD WIN)
Hofesh Shechter, Fiddler on the Roof
Randy Skinner, Dames at Sea
Sergio Trujillo, On Your Feet! The Story of Emilio and Gloria Estefan
Best Orchestrations
August Eriksmoen, Bright Star
Larry Hochman, She Loves Me
Alex Lacamoire, Hamilton (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Daryl Waters, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Mystery to me why JBroadway would segregate his interesting and pertinent point in a spoiler box.
That said, I found KG3 for the most part an insufferable stunt of a play masquerading as a profound one. It pretended to be a brilliant rant on the state of the British obsession with the royals, but looked to me like a cabaret act extended to ridiculous limits that was really obsessed with its own "brilliance". I was glad when it was over.
THE HUMANS was not a perfect play, nor even a fully realized evening. But for me it was filled with well-spoken truths about family from first scene to the last. The focus was a small one, but boy was it well-observed and acted. Hope it wins Best Play.
Broadway Legend Joined: 7/29/08
Someone in a Tree, I agree with you about King Charles. Assuming that's what you meant.
Won't voters just get tired of marking off HAMILTON each time?
I think Musical Revival is a tough call. All 4 shows were warmly received. But I think SPRING AWAKENING has a good shot because it was a production that broke barriers, and was beautifully Acted and Directed.
As good as FIDDLER and SHE LOVES ME are, they are pretty "by the book" revivals. THE COLOR PURPLE re-imagined the show and totally succeeded, but SPRING AWAKENING was really special. And since Arden winning Best Director would be a major upset, Revival is a good way to honor everyone's excellent work.
Does anyone have way to find out if Arden is the youngest nominee ever in his category?
CurtainPullDowner said: "Does anyone have way to find out if Arden is the youngest nominee ever in his category?"
Yes, I'll tell you right now: he's not. Tommy Kail was nominated for In the Heights at the age of thirty (Arden is 33). And that's just off the top of my head. I'll bet there are a handful more, possibly some in their 20s.
So now that we're approaching Tony Sunday, and all the other awards have come out. I'm really curious to see what people's final predictions are, particular in some of the less obvious categories. Here are mine, though I still have some question marks. I'm really curious to hear people weigh in on the categories I am unsure about.
Best Play
Eclipsed Author: Danai Gurira
The Father Author: Florian Zeller
The Humans Author: Stephen Karam (WILL WIN)
King Charles III Author: Mike Bartlett (SHOULD WIN)
Best Musical
Bright Star
Hamilton (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
School of Rock-The Musical
Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Waitress
Best Revival of a Play
Arthur Miller's The Crucible
Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge (SHOULD WIN/WILL WIN)
Blackbird
Long Day's Journey Into Night
Noises Off
Best Revival of a Musical
The Color Purple (WILL WIN)
Fiddler on the Roof
She Loves Me
Spring Awakening (SHOULD WIN)
Best Book of a Musical
Bright Star - Steve Martin
Hamilton - Lin-Manuel Miranda (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
School of Rock-The Musical - Julian Fellowes
Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed - George C. Wolfe
Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
Bright Star - Music: Steve Martin and Edie Brickell, Lyrics: Edie Brickell
Hamilton - Music & Lyrics: Lin-Manuel Miranda (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
School of Rock-The Musical - Music: Andrew Lloyd Webber, Lyrics: Glenn Slater
Waitress - Music & Lyrics: Sara Bareilles
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
Gabriel Byrne, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Jeff Daniels, Blackbird
Frank Langella, The Father (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Tim Pigott-Smith, King Charles III
Mark Strong, Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge (SHOULD WIN)
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
Jessica Lange, Long Day's Journey Into Night (WILL WIN)
Laurie Metcalf, Misery
Lupita Nyong'o, Eclipsed (SHOULD WIN)
Sophie Okonedo, Arthur Miller's The Crucible
Michelle Williams, Blackbird
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Alex Brightman, School of Rock-The Musical
Danny Burstein, Fiddler on the Roof
Zachary Levi, She Loves Me
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Laura Benanti, She Loves Me
Carmen Cusack, Bright Star
Cynthia Erivo, The Color Purple (WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN)
Jessie Mueller, Waitress
Phillipa Soo, Hamilton
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
Reed Birney, The Humans (WILL WIN?)
Bill Camp, Arthur Miller's The Crucible
David Furr, Noises Off
Richard Goulding, King Charles III
Michael Shannon, Long Day's Journey Into Night (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
Pascale Armand, Eclipsed
Megan Hilty, Noises Off (WILL WIN?)
Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (WILL WIN?)
Andrea Martin, Noises Off
Saycon Sengbloh, Eclipsed (WILL WIN?)
--I'll be happy either way
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
Daveed Diggs, Hamilton (WILL WIN)
Brandon Victor Dixon, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Christopher Fitzgerald, Waitress
Jonathan Groff, Hamilton
Christopher Jackson, Hamilton (SHOULD WIN)
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Renée Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Jane Krakowski, She Loves Me
Jennifer Simard, Disaster!
Adrienne Warren, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Best Scenic Design of a Play
Beowulf Boritt, Thérèse Raquin (SHOULD WIN/WILL WIN?)
Christopher Oram, Hughie
Jan Versweyveld, Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge (WILL WIN?)
David Zinn, The Humans (WILL WIN?)
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Es Devlin & Finn Ross, American Psycho
David Korins, Hamilton (WILL WIN)
Santo Loquasto, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
David Rockwell, She Loves Me (SHOULD WIN/WILL WIN?)
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Gregg Barnes, Tuck Everlasting
Jeff Mahshie, She Loves Me
Ann Roth, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed (SHOULD WIN)
Paul Tazewell, Hamilton (WILL WIN?)
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Natasha Katz, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Justin Townsend, The Humans
Jan Versweyveld, Arthur Miller's The Crucible
Jan Versweyveld, Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Howell Binkley, Hamilton (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Jules Fisher & Peggy Eisenhauer, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Ben Stanton, Spring Awakening
Justin Townsend, American Psycho
Best Direction of a Play
Rupert Goold, King Charles III (SHOULD WIN)
Jonathan Kent, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Joe Mantello, The Humans (WILL WIN?)
Liesl Tommy, Eclipsed
Ivo Van Hove, Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge (WILL WIN?)
Best Direction of a Musical
Michael Arden, Spring Awakening
John Doyle, The Color Purple
Scott Ellis, She Loves Me
Thomas Kail, Hamilton (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
George C. Wolfe, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Best Choreography
Andy Blankenbuehler, Hamilton (WILL WIN)
Savion Glover, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed (SHOULD WIN/WILL WIN?)
Hofesh Shechter, Fiddler on the Roof
Randy Skinner, Dames at Sea
Sergio Trujillo, On Your Feet! The Story of Emilio and Gloria Estefan
Best Orchestrations
August Eriksmoen, Bright Star
Larry Hochman, She Loves Me
Alex Lacamoire, Hamilton (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Daryl Waters, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
I will be very surprised if Hilty wins. She was great in Noises Off, but I don't get the sense that the production has really been on anyone's radar since it closed. I think it's between Sengbloh and Houdyshell, with Houdyshell having the edge, given her multiple nominations and veteran status. Still, Sengbloh was, for me, the absolute standout of Eclipsed and had the most moving arc of all the women, so if the voters want to give a nod to Eclipsed in some way, I wouldn't be surprised to see her take it.
Best Play
Eclipsed (SHOULD WIN)
The Father
The Humans (WILL WIN)
King Charles III
Best Musical
Bright Star
Hamilton (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
School of Rock-The Musical
Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Waitress
Best Revival of a Play
Arthur Miller's The Crucible
Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge (SHOULD WIN/WILL WIN)
Blackbird
Long Day's Journey Into Night
Noises Off
Best Revival of a Musical
The Color Purple
Fiddler on the Roof
She Loves Me (WILL WIN)
Spring Awakening (SHOULD WIN)
Best Book of a Musical
Bright Star - Steve Martin
Hamilton - Lin-Manuel Miranda (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
School of Rock-The Musical - Julian Fellowes
Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed - George C. Wolfe
Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
Bright Star - Music: Steve Martin and Edie Brickell, Lyrics: Edie Brickell
Hamilton - Music & Lyrics: Lin-Manuel Miranda (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
School of Rock-The Musical - Music: Andrew Lloyd Webber, Lyrics: Glenn Slater
Waitress - Music & Lyrics: Sara Bareilles
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
Gabriel Byrne, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Jeff Daniels, Blackbird
Frank Langella, The Father
Tim Pigott-Smith, King Charles III
Mark Strong, Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
Jessica Lange, Long Day's Journey Into Night (WILL WIN)
Laurie Metcalf, Misery
Lupita Nyong'o, Eclipsed (SHOULD WIN)
Sophie Okonedo, Arthur Miller's The Crucible
Michelle Williams, Blackbird
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Alex Brightman, School of Rock-The Musical
Danny Burstein, Fiddler on the Roof
Zachary Levi, She Loves Me
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Laura Benanti, She Loves Me
Carmen Cusack, Bright Star
Cynthia Erivo, The Color Purple (WILL WIN/SHOULD WIN)
Jessie Mueller, Waitress
Phillipa Soo, Hamilton
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
Reed Birney, The Humans (WILL WIN)
Bill Camp, Arthur Miller's The Crucible
David Furr, Noises Off
Richard Goulding, King Charles III
Michael Shannon, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
Pascale Armand, Eclipsed (SHOULD WIN)
Megan Hilty, Noises Off
Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (WILL WIN)
Andrea Martin, Noises Off
Saycon Sengbloh, Eclipsed
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
Daveed Diggs, Hamilton (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Brandon Victor Dixon, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Christopher Fitzgerald, Waitress
Jonathan Groff, Hamilton
Christopher Jackson, Hamilton
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Renée Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Jane Krakowski, She Loves Me
Jennifer Simard, Disaster!
Adrienne Warren, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Best Scenic Design of a Play
Beowulf Boritt, Thérèse Raquin
Christopher Oram, Hughie
Jan Versweyveld, Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
David Zinn, The Humans
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Es Devlin & Finn Ross, American Psycho
David Korins, Hamilton (WILL WIN)
Santo Loquasto, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
David Rockwell, She Loves Me (SHOULD WIN/MIGHT WIN?)
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Gregg Barnes, Tuck Everlasting
Jeff Mahshie, She Loves Me
Ann Roth, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed (MIGHT WIN)
Paul Tazewell, Hamilton (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Natasha Katz, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Justin Townsend, The Humans
Jan Versweyveld, Arthur Miller's The Crucible
Jan Versweyveld, Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Howell Binkley, Hamilton (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Jules Fisher & Peggy Eisenhauer, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Ben Stanton, Spring Awakening
Justin Townsend, American Psycho
Best Direction of a Play
Rupert Goold, King Charles III
Jonathan Kent, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Joe Mantello, The Humans (WILL WIN)
Liesl Tommy, Eclipsed
Ivo Van Hove, Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge (SHOULD/MIGHT WIN)
Best Direction of a Musical
Michael Arden, Spring Awakening (SHOULD WIN)
John Doyle, The Color Purple
Scott Ellis, She Loves Me
Thomas Kail, Hamilton (WILL WIN)
George C. Wolfe, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
Best Choreography
Andy Blankenbuehler, Hamilton (WILL WIN)
Savion Glover, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed (COULD WIN)
Hofesh Shechter, Fiddler on the Roof
Randy Skinner, Dames at Sea
Sergio Trujillo, On Your Feet! The Story of Emilio and Gloria Estefan
Best Orchestrations
August Eriksmoen, Bright Star
Larry Hochman, She Loves Me
Alex Lacamoire, Hamilton (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Daryl Waters, Shuffle Along, Or the Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed
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