Not that it is exactly the same, but COMPANY won best revival and then announced a closing like 3 weeks after winning.
Kimberly has turned a profit in only a handful of weeks of it running, the nominations did not give them much of a boost, the show had reviews that should have filled the house week after week and the show has never had a 100% full week.
Even if it wins best musical, how much juice will it get honestly? Will it limp along like Strange Loop did before it finally tossed in the towel? Why not announce the closing and grab every dollar for two months and then go out on the road as the best musical winner?
I really think it is not as far-fetched as people think
This is from Atlantic's website. They probably just didn't update it when ticket sales were extended to October, but it wouldn't shock me at all if that's when they're planning to close:
Mr. Wormwood said: "Not a great week in general. What the heck happened to Six? That's an all-time low for the show (not counting previews & COVID problem weeks).
Maybe people are beginning to realize it’s an overpriced, overhyped 70 minute Vegas show with no real story and mediocre songs. The tours aren’t even selling out. I bet the Toronto extended run closes early too.
"The sexual energy between the mother and son really concerns me!"-random woman behind me at Next to Normal
"I want to meet him after and bang him!"-random woman who exposed her breasts at Rock of Ages, referring to James Carpinello
BoringBoredBoard40 said: "Not that it is exactly the same, but COMPANY won best revival and then announced a closing like 3 weeks after winning.
Kimberly has turned a profit in only a handful of weeks of it running, the nominations did not give them much of a boost, the show had reviews that should have filled the house week after week and the show has never had a 100% full week.
Even if it wins best musical, how much juice will it get honestly? Will it limp along like Strange Loop did before it finally tossed in the towel? Why not announce the closing and grab every dollar for two months and then go out on the road as the best musical winner?
I really think it is not as far-fetched as people think"
As someone who’s been bearish on Kimberly Akimbo’s Broadway outlook but more optimistic about its future financial prospects on the road as part of everyone’s subscription plans, especially as a Best Musical winner, I don’t think your argument is totally far-fetched.
It would still surprise me, just because of the historical precedent and the likelihood of a sales spike if it’s the big winner on Sunday, but the musical has been around since last fall on Broadway and ran off-Broadway before that. It has loyal fans but has never caught on despite the rave reviews, awards, and Tony nominations. Best Musical will help, but I do wonder if it will ever garner premium prices even then.
There’s also the practical matter of how long the cast, including Victoria Clark and other key supporting actors, are going to stay with the show. It’s been a long time. They probably have other opportunities. Will the producers want to bring in replacements for two or three months?
So I guess it is possible that the show closes early even as Best Musical. But I still am concerned about what sort of message that would send. A Strange Loop was more easily explained away as an anomaly. If two Best Musical winners close early, that’s a trend.
There would be another problem. If Kimberly Akimbo wins Best Musical and then announces a closing date soon thereafter, that would become the story, undermining any positivity from its Tony wins.
I am still skeptical it will close August 6 if it wins Best Musical but I don’t pretend to be an expert on this. The New York Times annual survey of Tony voters has Kimberly Akimbo as the clear favorite over divided opposition. I think the producers will see how much of a boost from what could be a night of big wins (Musical, Best Actress, possibly featured actor or actress, possibly book and/or score). That might get the attention of a few people who don’t know much about the show.
Quite honestly, this is how I feel about &Juliet. I'm not sure how long it will hold on. Especially once people like Lorna and Betsy leave. I just don't know. They have tickets on sale through 2024 though so maybe they have hope with future casting? It hasn't been getting a lot of awards love.
I'm really not that concerned about & Juliet at all, and I kind of doubt Lorna and Betsy will have that big of an impact on grosses. Sure, some people may be going to see it specifically for them, but I'd wager the vast majority of people going to see the show don't know who they are. The main thing is I wonder how much their weekly nut is for licensing all the songs, which could make it an expensive show to run.
hearthemsing22 said: "Quite honestly, this is how I feel about &Juliet. I'm not sure how long it will hold on. Especially once people like Lorna and Betsy leave. I just don't know. They have tickets on sale through 2024 though so maybe they have hope with future casting? It hasn't been getting a lot of awards love."
& Juliet is the true hit new musical of the season. Its only had 1 week where capacity fell below 90% since opening and has played to over 95% capacity since Christmas. Its consistently brought in over $1M in every 8+ performance week since the week after it opened, and hasn't fallen below $1M once in 2023. I don't see that waning especially as we see Once Upon A One More Time does not seem to be impacting & Juliet's sales despite both going after a similar audience.
The only question for & Juliet's long term viability is how expensive is it to operate. I have to think because producers picked the Sondheim which is one of the smallest musical houses the operating costs can't be higher than $750-$800K a week. That is unless producers were hopping to pull what Scott Rudin did with Book of Mormon at the O'Neill and purposely play a smaller house with slimmer margins in hopes of selling it out so they could jack up the tickets prices especially if they win Best Musical. Even with that & Juliet should at least run through the end of the year, unlike Kimberly Akimbo and Some Like It Hot whose runs are entirely dependent on Sunday nights results.
DAME said: "At Monday nights added performance of Some Like It Hot; we were greeted with signs saying that tonights performance was being filmed. However; we did not notice any cameras in the theater. The audience seemed to be industry heavy. We saw some recognizable faces. But it was far from a full house. We got our first row center mezzanine at TKTS at 5 pm. We could hear the cast having a chat and cheering themselves on right before the show started. Loved the show. But I do not see how this survives much longer unless they start getting more people in there."
Even if it wins on Sunday it has a impossible task ahead of it. Future sales do not look good at all. What a shame. It really is a good show that deserves to be a huge hit.
I agree with both DAME and RippedMan. The only one that could possibly come out a winner with the award anointed to it is Kimberly. But who knows.. lets see what their numbers at the Tonys do for them. Both shows deserve a long run.
hearthemsing22 said: "Quite honestly, this is how I feel about &Juliet. I'm not sure how long it will hold on. Especially once people like Lorna and Betsy leave. I just don't know. They have tickets on sale through 2024 though so maybe they have hope with future casting? It hasn't been getting a lot of awards love."
I really don't think Lorna and Betsy leaving will have any impact on the sales for & Juliet...
Yeah, neither one of them are “names” and the roles are fairly simple, could be replaced with a number of actresses. People are coming to buy tickets for the show and it’s music, not any specific performer.