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[PalJoey]

Posted: 6/18/16 at 1:03pm

Mazel tov to the Clintons on their new grandchild!

 

[Auggie27]

Posted: 6/18/16 at 1:06pm

Joy Reid had a savvy panel of Republicans this morning, including that obnoxious former Fiorina and Cruz assistant, and to a person they acknowledged that it's too late for a replacement, the convention rules and the general fervor among those cretins who voted for Trump make it prohibitive. He has no national staff, no in-state teams, zero ground game, and honestly thinks he will win with call-ins to Morning Joe.  Oh that's right, Joe and Mika washed their hands with him after the judge debacle.  It's a first in modern elections, a presumptive nominee without an actual campaign.  Meanwhile, Clinton picked up MoveOn, AFL-CIO and Armitage this week, all stunningly pertinent endorsements. Her swing state ads are classy and tonally spot on.  They have hit the ground running, and even the most rabid Sanders advocates will not stop her.

[SNAFU]

Posted: 6/18/16 at 1:54pm

I still think Trump is a very serious threat still. The more he gets beat up, the more Corporate Sponsors scorn him, the more "Holly weird" people come out against him, the more he plays into the "No more of the same", "No more Business as usual" trope that his supporters are craving his momentum will continue. Until this election has come and gone, he is a very dangerous person.

Updated On: 6/18/16 at 01:54 PM

[theaterdrew]

Posted: 6/18/16 at 1:55pm

I've been appreciating greatly the new commercials that focus on Secretary Clinton's long-standing work to better the lives of women and children. She needed to have something more than just commercials mocking Cheeto Jesus.  That positive narrative will bring the reluctant on board because it gives them something they can feel good about supporting with their vote (rather than sitting out).

In the pit of my stomach, there is a lingering fear he is not going to make it through the convention, by his own doing or by delegate revolt.  

[PalJoey]

Posted: 6/18/16 at 6:23pm

If I were a betting man, I would put a coupla hundred on him NOT being on the GOP ticket come November.

 

[madbrian]

Posted: 6/18/16 at 6:45pm

I wouldn't take that bet, but whom do you think it will be?  Romney?  Cruz?  Kasich?  They'd almost have to go with someone who hasn't endorsed Trump, wouldn't they?

[theaterdrew]

Posted: 6/18/16 at 8:21pm

My theory is that it will be Ryan, and he knows it, which is why he's playing the fine-line game between saying he supports the party's nominee but telling them they should vote their conscience.  The fact he hasn't been a "Never Trump" makes him more palatable to those who voted for Donald in the primaries, and his cover will be that he has always done what is best for the party and not out of personal ambition (insert eyeroll).

Contrary to other views I've read, I don't think it's too late because of the high unfavorables that Hillary Clinton polls.  Ryan is his own brand of wacko but the limited time between the deposing of Cheeto Jesus and the election will work in his favor with a low-information electorate that thinks he's a well-spoken, physically attractive (and most importantly) man who is better than that (ambitious woman).  There are a lot of people who are, unfortunately, like my father, who doesn't care about the back stage dealings, he's just going to pull the level for the guy with the R by his name.  Especially if O'Reilly tells him to.

[madbrian]

Posted: 6/18/16 at 8:40pm

But what's the endgame?  Does Trump go willingly, or is he forced out?  If it's the latter, would all his crazy followers fall in line and vote 'R'?  Does this play out before their convention?  It would have to, I think. 

[SNAFU]

Posted: 6/18/16 at 8:50pm

Trump followers are going to go nuts if Trump gets the shaft. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump starts taking corporate money and goes Third Party on the GOP. He will NOT give up the Lime Light gracefully. If that is the case no matter who the Republicans put up they won't have a chance.

 

[theaterdrew]

Posted: 6/18/16 at 8:59pm

Yeah, the endgame, that's the question.  They have to offer him something and then help him build his cover for quitting. The current rumor, which has a certain air of believability, is that he wants to create his own media empire ala Murdock & FOX.  I think they line up investors and make an offer.  Trump then comes up with a reason, such as a need to attend to his businesses combined with charges that the R's have sabotaged his chances so badly no brilliant businessman such as himself would continue to fund a campaign rigged to fail.

I hope that's all too fanciful to be true but I can't shake the feeling it can't keep going as it is.

[HorseTears]

Posted: 6/18/16 at 9:25pm

I will gladly eat Elaine Stritch's hat if Ryan is the nominee.  No ****ing way.  Yeah, Ryan is playing both sides.  Not because he's gunning to take the nomination from Trump this year, but because he's gunning to be the party's savior in 2020.  He's going to emerge as the sensible, pragmatic, bridge-building Republican after this election. Not that that's remotely true, but perception is reality.  

[madbrian]

Posted: 6/18/16 at 9:51pm

Maybe, but part of the Dems' strategy must be tohang Trump around the neck of every Republican who supports him. 

[Auggie27]

Posted: 6/18/16 at 9:56pm

As was discussed on Reid's show, if the nomination is taken from Trump, he will go rogue in ways no one could predict. He will hold rallies and trash the GOP until his torch-bearers truly torch. There is no endgame, dumping Trump, unless -- that Howard Beale-esque conspiracy theory -- he wants to go. 

Updated On: 6/19/16 at 09:56 PM

[adamgreer]

Posted: 6/18/16 at 10:25pm

I don't see any conceivable way they dump Trump unless they've already decided 2016 is a lost cause and they're looking ahead to 2020. Trump will absolutely go rogue and run as a third party ("the America Party" and take enough GOP-ers with him that there's no way they could win. 

[SNAFU]

Posted: 6/18/16 at 10:31pm

Yeah Auggie, that is what I think the Republicans are really afraid of. As well they should be. Trump has already torn the Party apart but he is very capable of doing a scorched earth move on them.

 

[madbrian]

Posted: 6/18/16 at 10:50pm

Trump has virtually no organization, and far less cash than he'd like to admit. There is no way he could pull off a 3rd party run. If the GOP found a way to dump him, he'd have to wreak havoc from the outside. 

[SNAFU]

Posted: 6/18/16 at 11:07pm

They are reporting that his Rallies this weekend raised 17 million. If he tried, I am sure he could raise the cash, that is what he does. It is the campaign structure where he is lacking the most. You can be damned sure Hillary's campaign is in fine running order!

[madbrian]

Posted: 6/18/16 at 11:15pm

I don't think he raised money at his rallies, I believe it was at closed-door fundraising events with the RNC. Not sure how much of those funds would be his, and how much would be the RNC's.   He's toxic right already, and donors might flee if he is dumped. 

[PalJoey]

Posted: 6/19/16 at 12:05am

 

But what's the endgame? 

 

That's the thing about this crazy primary/election season: No one friggin' knows. No one has been though anything like this and no one's predictions are worth SH*T.

The only thing everyone knows--Democrats and Republicans alike--is that Hillary Clinton is unbeatable.

 

[South Florida]

Posted: 6/19/16 at 6:14am

"The only thing everyone knows--Democrats and Republicans alike--is that Hillary Clinton is unbeatable."

Oh brother!  You should be following her around with pom poms.

 

[madbrian]

Posted: 6/19/16 at 7:10am

PalJoey said: "The only thing everyone knows--Democrats and Republicans alike--is that Hillary Clinton is unbeatable."

Perhaps HRC's biggest obstacle might be overconfidence?  I'm trying to avoid it, which is difficult.  On the one hand, his ravings are so beyond the pale that a majority of Americans couldn't possibly support him, right?  However he won the nomination, and despite his continued obnoxious remarks, he still polls around 40%.  What does that say about us as a country?  He's far too dangerous to take lightly.  I understand that we still have almost 5 months until the election, and many, many Americans haven't paid serious attention yet, but still.

[PalJoey]

Posted: 6/19/16 at 10:09am

 

He doesn't poll as high as 40%. In fact, that's the magic number he can't break.

And the "unbeatable" phrase is the one I hear used (glumly) by Republicans.

They know Trump will lose--and they know that keeping him off the ticket will result in a chaos that will lose as well.

 

[theaterdrew]

Posted: 6/19/16 at 11:06am

While it's correct that he doesn't break the 40% threshold, here's something disturbing:  two recent polls have shown that 45 or 48% of those polled would support a ban on Muslim immigration.  The polls were taken post-Orlando, so we can hope they reflect anger in the immediate aftermath, but it could also indicate some being polled won't admit to supporting Trump and these tragedies perversely increase his support.

It is important not to be overconfident.  So far, I don't think the Clinton campaign is, or they wouldn't be working as hard as they are.  I hope this is, indeed, finally an election where the 50 state strategy can succeed and begin the end of R stranglehold at a grass roots level.

[StageManager2]

Posted: 6/19/16 at 7:15pm

A better question is, who would want to be the sacrificial lamb, if the GOP were to replace Trump? This point seldom gets raised in these discussions, but it's central. I don't think anyone -- even Sarah Palin -- would want to pick up the gauntlet.

[madbrian]

Posted: 6/19/16 at 7:27pm

Christie is probably desperate/pathetic enough.