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The smart folks at 538 have published their first forecast, which gives Clinton an 80% chance of victory. They'll be updating this forecast frequently between now and election day.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

South Florida, I am surprised someone who is constantly mocked, insulted and ridiculed would insult someone who has never said or done any of that to you. I guess I am easy target for you.



FTR the poll I showed is one of the most famous and important people who do polling, not some poll noone ever heard of or not some poll with agenda and I find it amazing that most people hate both

Updated On: 6/29/16 at 04:24 PM

But you're stupid.

If there have to be idiots in this thread, I think I'd prefer yesterday's idiots to the two of you.

Back to the topic at hand.



Madbrian posted Nate Silver's new data-driven 2016 Presidential forecast site above

It's must-bookmarking for election-data geeks for the rest of the election season.



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Updated On: 6/29/16 at 05:10 PM

http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/06/clinton-trump-swing-state-poll-224923



She's holding the lead in seven swing states, polling out today.

Updated On: 6/29/16 at 06:10 PM

Polls change practically every minute so I don't pay them any mind. Especially the Quinnipiac, which is students.

Numerous news agencies are reporting that Trump is soliciting contributions from foreign nationals, which is a clear violation of campaign finance laws.

Over the last two presidential elections, 538 has called 99 out of 100 states correctly.

This is probably another reason Trump won't release his tax returns. After promising millions and certainly, bragging about it, this article shows the promises he didn't keep. If you scroll down it even shows a kind of listing or spreadsheet of the individual charities. I guess a would thank him for donations to AmFar and smaller AIDS support groups (but he could surely afford more). I just hope the "would be Emperor" keeps losing his clothes.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-promised-millions-to-charity-we-found-less-than-10000-over-7-years/2016/06/28/cbab5d1a-37dd-11e6-8f7c-d4c723a2becb_story.html

I think his denying the Washington Post access is not exactly paying off.

Jane2 said: "But still guys, can we really depend on polls? Don't things change right up to the very end?"

Yes and yes. Polls will change, but any individual poll needs to be put into context to determine its validity. Polling firms use different methodologies, which tend to give them a lean (a lean is not a bias). The methodology used by the folks at 538 truly sets them apart from the talking heads on cable news, who tend to set their hair on fire with every new poll. They look at each pollster's track record and lean, giving greater weight to some and ignoring others. So right now, we're looking at a snapshot, which will change between now and November. As November approaches, the analysis done at 538 will become more stable and reliable. It's wonky stuff, but I find it compelling. Guess I'm a wonk.

thanks mad brian and Joey, I get it.

Same here. Polls do not matter - we need massive GOTV this year!