Election 2024

I think we're stuck with Trump and Biden. I think Biden will win, with the states breaking exactly like they did in 2020, with maybe one or two exceptions. I also think the House and Senate will switch places in terms of majority control.

The New York Times just released a set of polls showing Trump with a narrow lead in several swing states. I am not too bothered by that, not only because we're still a year out and Trump will do all kinds of dumb things in the interim, but because polls have been regularly underestimating Democratic support since they overestimated it in 2020. We'll see in a couple of days if this holds for the off-year elections for the Virginia legislature and competitive governors' races in Kentucky and Mississippi(!).

Any guesses on who Trump's running mate will be? Matt Gaetz... Marjorie Taylor Greene... but I think it will be Donald Junior.

That's why I hope he picks her. Biden is old,but I'd rather have him than Trump again.

fosterfan2 said: "That's why I hope he picks her. Biden is old,but I'd rather have him than Trump again."



Trump is only 3 years younger than Biden. So age should not be a factor with these two. If Trump gets back in he will be among the 25 oldest world leaders.

"Haley vs. Biden in a nail biter"

That would be interesting matchup. Haley would take away one of the usual attacks on Republican candidates by being a woman and not white. She would do much better with independent voters who in 2020 showed their disdain of Trump's personality among other things. Her view on abortion is not as "hard line" as other Republican candidates. If she were the nominee, I am sure the campaign slogan would be about having a "new generation" of leadership (she is in her early 50's) in the country. I believe she has spoken about having mental acuity tests for older politicians. She has good resume for the job for somebody who is not the currently the POTUS - ha ha. Executive experience as Governor of SC and foreign policy experience by being UN Ambassador.

Biden is the incumbent and that has plenty of advantages in fund raising. The media/big tech leans left and will be behind him just like 2020. You can already hand him the electoral votes from the two big states (NY and California) giving him a good head start. People tend to like Biden personally although more people than ever are getting concerned about his age. The debates in 2024 will be huge because of the age issue.

2024 Prediction - Republican primary voters are fairly stupid and will nominate Trump. The same electorate in 2020 who were tired of all the Trump "bluster" and "drama" still can't stand him. The current polls show that people in this country currently think we are headed in the wrong direction which is usually not good for an incumbent. I don't think this country is going to be much better off in 2024 than now. Due to that and 3rd party candidates this will be a bunch closer in 2020. I predict Trump wins two more states (Wisconsin & Arizona) but still loses the electoral college vote to Biden in 285-253. Biden will still easily win the popular vote.

Note** I will say I think there will be 25-30% chance Biden is not the nominee and says he will not run again due to health reasons.

I think the best hope for Nikki Haley's presidential ambitions is a Biden win next year. After 8 years of Democrat, the tide will definitely turn in favor of GOP in 2028. The only thing stopping her would be getting the nomination. With Trump out of the way, she has a better chance. I think she is the most likely woman to be the first female president. Apart from Kamala perhaps, if Biden does get back in I genuinely see him struggling to last until age 86. A GOP female candidate has the advantage of having all misogynist-prone voters already on their side.

Jay Lerner-Z said: "P.S. If it actually does turn out to be Haley against Biden in 2024, I think Nikki would win comfortably. A semblance of sanity is all it would take for swing voters to switch back to GOP."

As well as unhappy Independent & Dem voters that could swing for Haley's vote.

Congratulations to the Democrats. This election cycle is playing out perfectly. Go after Trump with legal issues and getting on state ballots to rile up the MAGA nuts. They come out in force and lead the way to him getting the nomination again. Democrats laugh their head off because they know the same independent voters who hated Trump in 2020 still despise him personally and will hurt him in the general election. Republicans can't even make the age of Biden an issue with Trump only three years younger. Earlier in this thread I made the case for Haley getting nomination, but Republican primary voters are just plain stupid. There are countless races Republicans have lost because of the candidates they select are horrible and get clobbered in the general election. Seriously, who in their right mind thought Dr. Oz and Hershall Walker were good candidates -lol.

So, it looks like to me this country is going to be led again by old man in his 80's which is sad. Wouldn't it be nice to have a new generation of leaders for this country like we did in the 60's when JFK replaced Ike.

If Trump clobbers Haley in NH and SC, then her campaign is over.

Yet Dump still is the betting choice by legal bookies. The appeal is shocking and I still feel like I've been made to watch a really long, far fetched, 8 year movie in some kind of purgatory.

Updated On: 10/21/24 at 07:43 PM

"Yet Dump still is the betting choice by legal bookies. It's appeal is shocking and I still feel like I've been made to watch a really long, far fetched, 8 year movie in some kind of purgatory."

It is a sad commentary that Trump will be the nominee again. The American people always whine about the quality of candidates but look who they select to run in the general election. Even if you might agree with some of his policies how can you overlook his egomaniac and childish behavior. Is that really who you want to be leader of the free world? I can't tell you how disgusted I am that in 2024 we are going to have election between a man in his 80's who I believe is senile and a man who is 78 and I think is a scumbag.

Zeppie,

If all of the DAs are Democrat, that should tell you more about the GOP than it does about the DAs. All Republicans facing election everywhere cower in fear at the feet of Trump, of COURSE they would not prosecute.

The Republican Party is in a sad state indeed. I’d go so far as to pronounce it dead. It’s the “MAGA” party now, completely detached from reality. A cult.