Oscars 2012

[tazber]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 12:20pm

This week the critics groups begin announcing their winners so I thought it was time to start a general thread for Oscar chat.

The honorary Oscars were handed out last night at the Governor's Ball and Anthony Breznican (the Oscar reporter for EW) had this to say about the event (which is also all about campaigning as well as paying tribute)

Talking to voters tonight, there seems to be a consensus on at least six sure-things for Best Picture: Argo, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, and Zero Dark Thirty.

The room was buzzing over Django Unchained. Few at the Governors Awards had seen it, but everyone wanted to know what the word was on Tarantino’s southern-fried vengeance tale. (Early reaction from those who were at the DGA showing seems strong.) As it begins screening this coming week, we’ll get a better sense of where it stands.

The big, unresolved question is what could be the bottom four? The Academy’s rules allow for as few as five or as many as 10 Best Picture contenders, depending on how many get enough No. 1 votes.

The Impossible? The Master? Flight? Perhaps some offbeat darling such as Moonrise Kingdom or Beasts of the Southern Wild? Or maybe one of the big studio crowdpleasers: The Hobbit or The Dark Knight Rises?

Ask a different person and you’d get a different answer. Voters are all over the map on those choices, but the top six – those are definite. Where they rank… ? That also changes with each voter


Link

[best12bars]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 12:29pm

I think one of the most exciting things going into "high Oscar season" for 2012 is there doesn't seem to be an overall (advance) favorite, but rather several strong contenders in most of the major categories. It should make for an interesting race this year, and I'll bet we see the critics awards split several ways.

Updated On: 12/2/12 at 12:29 PM

[tazber]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 12:33pm

I completely agree! Of course if all the critics start choosing the same film then it will become just like other years, but I don't see that happening.

Also, the dates have been moved around so there is a shorter campaign season (thank god). For example nomination ballots are due before the Golden Globes are handed out.

[Plum]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 12:35pm

Aw, I'd love it if Beasts of the Southern Wild could slip in there. It'd a perfect use of the 10-nominee system - I know it's never going to win, but giving it room to be acknowledged like that would be great.

[best12bars]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 12:40pm

I see the major splits going between Argo, Les Miz, and Lincoln, with no clear frontrunner and plenty of other films getting recognition along the way as well.

We shall see!

I also predict another year with nine BP nominees. Just a hunch.

[Kad]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 1:27pm

I hope Moonrise Kingdom can sneak into Best Picture. If not, hopefully a nod for Screenplay and Art Direction.

At this point, I feel like Lincoln has the edge for winning Best Picture. Unless Les Miz has equally strong reviews, then it'll definitely be a toss up.

[best12bars]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 1:29pm

Don't forget Argo. It's a major contender in all the big categories.

[jasonf]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 1:47pm

Argo FELT like a best movie to me. I'm holding out hopes for Les Mis of course, but between Argo and Lincoln I definitely give the edge to the former.

[henrikegerman]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 1:49pm

NY Film Critics hunches:

film: Argo ahead of Zero Dark Thirty, Amour
director: Ben Affleck ahead of Michael Haneke, Wes Anderson
actor: John Hawkes ahead of Daniel Day-Lewis, Joaquin Phoenix
actress: Emmanuelle Riva ahead of Jennifer Lawrence, Rachel Weisz
supporting actress: Helen Hunt ahead of Anne Hathaway, Sally Field
supporting actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman ahead of Leonardo DiCaprio, Tommy Lee Jones
screenplay: Moonrise Kingdom ahead of Django Unchained, Lincoln
cinematography: The Master
non-fiction film: How to Survive a Plague

Updated On: 12/2/12 at 01:49 PM

[best12bars]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 1:53pm

I'm going to go out on a limb (not a shaky one) and predict that Anne Hathaway will get the lion's share of awards for Supporting Actress from critics, colleagues, and peers alike.

Of all the categories, this is the only one that feels closest to a "lock."

(She won't get them all. Who does? But most of them.)

EDIT: Okay, Tommy Lee Jones is (IMO) a lock for Supporting Actor, too. I don't know if the critics will all feel that way, but I would be shocked if he doesn't take home the Oscar.

Updated On: 12/2/12 at 01:53 PM

[AC126748]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 2:00pm

I don't think Jones is a lock for Supporting Actor. I wouldn't be surprised if it went to Hoffman. The Master won't win Picture, Director, or Actor (categories in which it will likely be nominated), but I could see the Academy rewarding it with Screenplay and Supporting Actor.

With each day, I feel like Jessica Chastain is gaining Best Actress traction. Lawrence is probably the front-runner at this point, but she definitely doesn't feel like a lock.

[StageManager2]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 2:06pm

I have a sinking feeling Les Misérables is gonna tank, especially after watching the recently released clips. For one, there is no audience for this outside of musical theater geeks and Les Miz fans. Also, the sung-thru format is going to alienate the average moviegoer, especially when it's badly sung. IMO, the singing leaves a lot to be desired -- Crowe sounds tone-deaf, Redmayne sounds like Kermit the Frog, Seyfried sounds like a squeaky toy. Hathaway and Jackman are good singers, but the direction does them no favors. As a longtime Les Miz fan, even I don't think I can put up with inadequate wall-to-wall singing for 2.5 hours, not to mention the constant close-ups. Oy! I'll still be there opening day, hoping for the best, but the more I see/hear about it, the less enthusiastic I am.

In short, I don't think it will be the Oscar game changer pundits/fans are anticipating. It will have to be a box office juggernaut to be a major contender, but I don't see that happening.

Updated On: 12/2/12 at 02:06 PM

[Kad]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 2:19pm

I think Affleck will be rewarded for Argo, but it won't take home Best Picture.

[best12bars]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 2:32pm

AC126748---I haven't seen "The Master," but correct me if I'm wrong ... isn't Hoffman's performance more leading than supporting? I hear the studio is pushing him heavily for the various supporting categories, but that can sometimes work against a leading performance. It may ultimately split Academy votes. And even if he gets a nom for Supporting, it still may either confuse or irritate the voters.

Sometimes, they overlook it, sometimes they don't.

[AC126748]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 2:41pm

Besty: Others may disagree, but I'd say that Hoffman's performance falls into the "strong supporting" category rather than "leading". The film really belongs to Phoenix; his story is the central focus throughout, and while Hoffman's character (and what his character represents) is very important, it does not crossing over into major leading territory. Based on that, I don't think it's category fraud to place Hoffman in supporting and I think he has an excellent shot at winning.

I also think the screenplay could go the Piano/Little Miss Sunshine/Eternal Sunshine route and act as a reward for a movie that has a lot of respect but is deemed too weird/arty to take Best Picture.

[best12bars]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 2:47pm

I'm sure I'll see "The Master" at some point soon, and I'm looking forward to it! Thanks for your observations on it.

[AC126748]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 2:53pm

It's not to everyone's taste, but it's easily my favorite film of the year. I couldn't stop thinking about it for a week after I first saw it and subsequently have been back twice.

[tazber]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 2:55pm

I'm going with Lee Jones too. I'm reading that a lot of Academy members are viewing the critical acclaim for The Mater as a case of the Emperor's New Clothes.

This prediction of course has nothing to do with who should win, just who seems to have the most momentum.

Meanwhile I'm thinking Amour could be a big spoiler in both of the lead acting races.

[AC126748]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 2:59pm

Haneke doesn't appear to be as beloved by the Academy as he is by critics and film buffs. I wouldn't be surprised if all the pre-Oscars hype for Amour led to very few major nominations. Just a hunch.

[strummergirl]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 5:06pm

Well Riva is a global icon but again all I can think is that people view Haneke as a sadist against his audience and supposedly this is still a very tough movie to watch.

I feel like Les Mis is going to be fine (the complaints about the direction have been throw at Tom Hooper since The King's Speech at that is sort of his style as somebody who has been into his work since John Adams and Prime Suspect), it is Anna Karenina to me as the film that 'tanked' somewhat this season in terms of awards prestige. Too divided among critics and the fans of the book have not been on board with the casting. Wright's whole filmography puts him as a bold technician and I would venture the guess the film only gets technical nods along with the Stoppard screenplay that will likely lose to Tony Kushner.

The best actress category is interesting as the supporting actress category is a much deeper category with Field, Hathaway, Barks, Helen Hunt (she's been put as supporting), and Adams with Maggie Smith, HBC, Amanda Seyfried, and Kerry Washington also as possible contenders. Could possibly have the youngest nominee (I really do need to see Beasts of the Southern Wild), two foreign-born actresses nominated in foreign language films in Riva and Cotillard (she has a lot of buzz) and I do not believe that has happened before, and two previous nominees in Lawrence and Chastain rounding up the category but I would still say the category is seen as 'weak' at least compared to the supporting performances by actresses. And speaking of Chastain, it has been a while since Bigelow had a female lead. Has it really been since Jamie Lee Curtis in Blue Steel?

I loved The Master but there was an understable backlash to it since it is looked, sounded and was cast with so much prestige but not done in really accessible way. I do think PSH does pass as more of a supporting player. This was Joaquin's film.

As for the Best Picture nominees, I don't think The Dark Knight Rises gets it aside from technical awards stuff. The Academy has largely ignored Nolan but it has acknowledged Wally Pfister. Moonrise Kingdom, I would love if it got Best Picture nods but screenplay seems like a likely default nod. The Hobbit seems like the closest to a 'populist'/genre nod.

I actually do feel like it has been a good year in film but I feel like I still need to see a bunch. I still think Lincoln is the strong pick. Zero Dark Thirty and Les Miz are perhaps the spoilers. I think Argo might have come out a little too early. I feel like Zero Dark Thirty might steal its thunder in terms of both intrigue and criticism (some sites and reviewers have compared and contrasted the films) not to mention the advantage of not having to be distracted by a director/leading man with a period haircut.

Updated On: 12/2/12 at 05:06 PM

[henrikegerman]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 5:09pm

Hoffman's role might be appropriately deemed either a secondary lead or supporting. It doesn't seem at all like category fraud to treat it as the latter.

(btw I hated the movie.)

[tazber]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 5:39pm

Also I've seen Judi Dench's name mentioned a few times for supporting actress (Marigold Hotel).

So lead actor is probably gonna be between Day Lewis, Washington (Flight), Phoenix (Master), and Hawkes (The Sessions) with the 5th slot being the open one.

Lead actress is tougher to call. Not a very strong year. Actually its a horrible year.

Is there even a front runner? Cotillard (Rust and Bone)? Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)? Watts (The Impossible)?

[EricMontreal22]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 5:54pm

I don't see The Master as a strong contender at all. As Strummer said, there's been a noticeable backlash since it opened--and in fact, it seems to have already been largely forgotten...

[Plum]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 5:57pm

Lawrence in _Silver Linings Playbook_, too

[AC126748]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 5:59pm

I think Smith will get nominated over Dench for Best Exotic. Her performance is showier, and she's riding a wave of popularity thanks to Downton. Supporting Actress is a pretty locked-in category; I can't imagine Hathaway, Adams, Hunt, and Field not all being nominated. I say Smith takes the fifth spot.

The fifth spot for Actor is harder to predict. A month ago I would have said Hopkins without question, but the lackluster response to Hitchcock leaves me thinking he'll be forgotten all together. That fifth slot could go to Bradley Cooper, Hugh Jackman, Jamie Foxx, Ben Affleck, Jean-Louis Trintignant, or Christoph Waltz. I could even see Richard Gere pulling a Richard Jenkins and sneaking in for Arbitrage. Hawkes will pick up critics' awards, but I'd say Day-Lewis is still the one to beat.

It seems like most people are identifying Jennifer Lawrence as the current Actress frontrunner. I'd agree with that, but say she's a pretty weak one. Chastain is apparently amazing in Zero Dark Thirty, which is rapidly gaining buzz. Best Actress could be the most open category of all.

I would definitely disagree with the statement that The Master has been forgotten and expect to see it get nominated in many of the major categories. I think we'll see it perform well at the critics' awards. It won't win Picture or Director or Actor, but Hoffman, the screenplay, and the cinematography stand a good chance. It's a decisive movie, but that doesn't mean it will be unilaterally rejected.

Updated On: 12/2/12 at 05:59 PM