Oscars 2012- Page 3

[Jay Lerner-Z]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 1:21pm

Anyone want to go out on a limb and predict who the actual winners will be? The closer it gets, the less fun predictions become.

Picture - Lincoln
Actor - Daniel Day Lewis
Actress - Marion Cotillard
Director - Spielberg

[AC126748]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 1:21pm

Yes, and in what I'd call a welcome surprise, Matthew McConaughey won Best Supporting Actor for his terrific work in BERNIE (and MAGIC MIKE).

[tazber]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 1:24pm

Kad, Django just started screening last night. It's going to be showing heavily this week and everyone's curious about it so the word (which so far is very positive) will spread quickly.

I don't think it's too late for it gain traction, especially in the acting and writing categories.

[ErikJ972]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 1:40pm

I know its unlikely, but I would rather see McConaughey be recognized for his work in Kiler Joe.

[ksimone1120]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 2:15pm

I think Anne Hathaway & Hugh Jackman will be nominated For Best Actor/Actress. Argo i feel will get most of the awards. Ben affleck will probably get some love lol. Have anyone seen "Beasts of the Southern Wild" I think that might get some nominations maybe for Best Picture. It may be a longshot but Denzel Washington for Flight Best Actor Nod

Updated On: 12/3/12 at 02:15 PM

[tazber]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 2:35pm

I think Denzel is one of the most likely to get an nod, ksimone.

And yes, I saw Beasts of the Southern Wild and loved it.

I would not be surprised if the girl got an actress nomination. In fact I'd short list her.

For those who didn't have a chance to catch it during its brief run in theaters it hits dvd/BD tomorrow.

I'm loathe to oversell it because it is undeniably a film that some will just not like, but I do recommend it highly.

[StageManager2]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 2:55pm

I think Anne Hathaway & Hugh Jackman will be nominated For Best Actor/Actress.

Jackman for Best Actor, sure, but no way in hell is Hathaway getting Best Actress. She's being campaigned for Supporting Actress, and rightfully so. Her part is rather small to warrant a lead actress nomination. Granted, there have been exceptions in the past (i.e. Louise Fletcher in Cuckoo's Nest, Anthony Hopkins in Silence of the Lambs, Patricia Neal in Hud), but she has a better chance in supporting.

I can't predict who will win at this point (just who is most likely to be nominated), but I will say this: Affleck could very well win for Director. Spielberg already has two, Lee has one, and Bigelow and Hooper have recently won. Add to that the fact that Argo is a critical and box office hit. If Argo wins anything, it could be this.


ETA: Well, Bigelow won, so what do I know?

Updated On: 12/3/12 at 02:55 PM

Posted: 12/3/12 at 3:07pm

It's another "Gosh I haven't seen ANY of these movies!" Oscar race for me.

And whoever speculated Les Mis will bomb because it has no following outside of Theater Geeks....My Nephew has announced that his wife and kids won't be coming for Christmas because they all bought tickets to les Mis first showing. They are NOT a "theater" family but they all know and love Les Mis.

[StageManager2]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 3:42pm

Are you referring to me, Mouth?

I've no doubt it will open big (possibly #2 for the weekend, but no higher), due to Les Miz fans and some curious folk (God knows Evita opened at #2), but I don't see it having staying power. I predict walk-outs (save for the fanatics) and bad word of mouth, which will kill it at the box office.

.

Updated On: 12/3/12 at 03:42 PM

[strummergirl]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 4:27pm

Walk-outs???? Really? Les Mis is a pretty mainstream show. It ain't Nine (if we want to talk about walk-outs).

And no way is anybody associated with Perks getting a nod besides possibly Chbosky getting a nod for adapted screenplay and I say that as somebody who would campaign on Ezra Miller's part. The supporting actress field is CROWD-ED.

McConaughey was excellent in Killer Joe (the film itself I am less warm toward, but regardless, a great performance) but I definitely think he will get a nomination the way Jessica Chastain got a nomination last year. The most mainstream work by an actor in a year of giving other good performances gets the nod.



Updated On: 12/3/12 at 04:27 PM

[SonofRobbieJ]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 4:33pm

I could be very, very wrong...but I think the fan base for Les Miz is pretty extensive. Even my non-theatre friends are excited for it.

Posted: 12/3/12 at 4:38pm

It is one of the most popular shows of all time. Certainly far more of a built in following than Nine, Chicago and Hairspray combined.

And "Mouth" was my nickname in high school- you must have have been on the football team to know it.

[BroadwayBenny]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 4:43pm

Yeah, Les Mis seems to be one of those exceptions-to-the-rule products. I also have friends who DESPISE musicals, and yet they love Les Miserables and are just as excited as I am to see it. Either way I think it's still a little too early to tell how the general public will react.

[ksimone1120]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 7:16pm

I agree 100%! My Friend hates going to see musicals; she can't sit through all the singing, but she is so excited to see Les Miz This christmas. I think Les Miz Will be the new "Gigi", "Chicago", "West Side Story" & "Oliver!" in the theaters. I say that because Those musicals/movie won a bunch of Oscars which is unlikely for being a musical because musicals aren't likely to win much, especially 'Best Picture' But these musicals/movies did. Les Miz is definitely a Top Contender.

[Paulyd]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 8:12pm

If you want to see two of the best performances this year look no further than Jean-Louis Trintignant and Emmanuelle Riva for Amour.

With Jean Dujardin winning last year, I doubt they'd give the award to a french actor for the second year in a row. It's a shame as it's probably one of the best films of the year.

[Kad]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 10:06pm

I'm not a Les Mis fan by any stretch of the imagination and I am excited for it. It's going to do well- probably very well.

I'm glad to hear Django is getting positive word of mouth thus far. But I still don't think it'll see real play at the awards; it's late in coming and has to compete with an incredibly strong group of contenders in virtually every category.

The NYFCC critics picks just confirms what we already know: the wealth is going to be spread amongst a group of great films. The question is just how, exactly, it'll be divvied out.

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 12/4/12 at 3:24pm

I just don't see DJANGO UNCHAINED being an Oscar movie in what's already a really crowded year with spectacular movies all around. Initial tweets from Oscar bloggers mentioned that it probably won't be a player, and it's okay, it doesn't need to be even if it is a great movie. They're probably wanting to court audiences more than they are trying to court awards groups. I can't imagine any category (except for maybe supporting actor, but I don't think so) where it'd get in.
I think lead actress is very up for grabs right now. I enjoyed Quevenzhane Wallis from BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD, but the performance feels like more of a director and editor's good job, that didn't keep Jennifer Hudson from winning an Oscar back in 2006 but I'd personally rather see Jennifer Lawrence, Jessica Chastain, Emanuelle Riva, Marion Cotillard and Naomi Watts getting in. Watts will probably be left out in favor of Wallis though.
I get that Gold Derby and InContention are predicting Maggie Smith for THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD hotel, let's remember that at this time last year people were predicting Vanessa Redgrave to win for CORIOLANUS and she didn't get nominated for anything. I predict Smith is only being predicted because of her recent Emmy success and the fact the movie was a hit, but I don't see her getting in at all, I'd even predict Judi Dench's raved about turn in SKYFALL to get in over Smith.

[best12bars]

Posted: 12/4/12 at 4:04pm

Here are some early (and admittedly really fringe) critics awards.

New York Critics Circle Award winners:
http://www.cinemasight.com/precursor-78th-new-york-film-critics-circle-2012/#more-43617

Satellite Awards nominees:
http://www.cinemasight.com/precursor-17th-satellite-awards-nominations-2012/#more-43613

[Kad]

Posted: 12/4/12 at 4:10pm

The Film Experience is calling Dame Maggie Smith, as well. What makes her different from Redgrave in Coriolanus is a) Smith's recent resurgence due to Downtown Abbey and b) the sense that she may not be around much longer.

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 12/4/12 at 4:19pm

Kad, I just think (perhaps just hope) that Maggie Smith will be left out in favor of a much stronger performance in a much better film. Weirder things have happened of course, and Smith does have huge support (I cannot believe she won the Emmy over the beautiful work that Christina Hendricks did this past season on MAD MEN, or the intense one-of-a-kind turn Anna Gunn gives in BREAKING BAD) so I'm not counting her out, but I just wouldn't be surprised if she doesn't get nominations in any of the precursors. We'll find out next week when SAG and Globe nods come out.
Here's some early reactions to DJANGO UNCHAINED.



Gold Derby

Updated On: 12/4/12 at 04:19 PM

[Kad]

Posted: 12/4/12 at 4:22pm

Yeah, but the Academy generally uses the Supporting categories for "fun" nominations and to try to show they're attune to what's popular. They aren't gonna win, obviously, but they're nominated because why not.

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 12/5/12 at 2:30pm

..And the NBR became the second organization to name ZERO DARK THIRTY and Kathryn Bigelow the best picture of the year. That is so impressive! List below:

Best Film: "Zero Dark Thirty"

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, "Zero Dark Thirty"

Best Actor: Bradley Cooper, "Silver Linings Playbook"

Best Actress: Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"

Best Supporting Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, "Django Unchained"

Best Supporting Actress: Ann Dowd, "Compliance"

Best Adapted Screenplay: "Silver Linings Playbook"

Best Original Screenplay: "Looper"

Best Animated Feature: "Wreck-It Ralph"

Breakthrough Actor: Tom Holland, "The Impossible"

Breakthrough Actress: Quvenzhané Wallis, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

Best Directorial Debut: Benh Zeitlin, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

Best Foreign Language Film: "Amour"

Best Documentary: "Searching for Sugar Man"

Best Ensemble: "Les Miserables"

Spotlight Award: John Goodman ("Argo," "Flight," "ParaNorman," "Trouble with the Curve")

NBR Freedom of Expression: "The Central Park Five"

NBR Freedom of Expression: "Promised Land"

Top Films (in alphabetical order) "Argo" "Beasts of the Southern Wild" "Django Unchained" "Les Miserables "Lincoln" "The Perks of Being a Wallflower" "Promised Land" "Silver Linings Playbook"

Top 5 Foreign Language Films (in alphabetical order) "Barbara" "The Intouchables" "The Kid with a Bike "No" "War Witch"

Top 5 Documentaries (in alphabetical order) "Ai Weiwie: Never Sorry" "Detropia" "The Gatekeepers "The Invisible War" "Only the Young"

Top 10 Independent Films (in alphabetical order) "Arbitrage" "Bernie" "Compliance" "End of Watch" "Hello I Must Be Going" "Little Birds" "Moonrise Kingdom" "On the Road" "Quartet" "Sleepwalk with Me"
InContention

[henrikegerman]

Posted: 12/5/12 at 2:39pm

I haven't seen Compliance but from descriptions it would appear that Dowd is the central character. Can anyone weigh in on whether this is really a supporting performance?

[madbrian]

Posted: 12/5/12 at 2:50pm

Haven't seen it, but everywhere I look Dowd is the first actor mentioned in the listing of the cast.

[strummergirl]

Posted: 12/5/12 at 2:58pm

Compliance is an uncomfortable, real-life horror movie mostly done in real-time that is sort of a Milgram experiment with a sexual harassment element. Ann Dowd follows the orders of who she believes is a cop over the phone betraying and obliterating any walls of trust she has with an employee at a fast food restaurant. She is really good though you could also place her as a lead.