Oscars 2012- Page 4

[strummergirl]

Posted: 12/5/12 at 3:00pm

"The NYFCC critics picks just confirms what we already know: the wealth is going to be spread amongst a group of great films. The question is just how, exactly, it'll be divvied out."

I agree. There have been a couple of films in the last few years that I was quite fine with winning the Oscar but the group-think that led to them inevitably winning all of the awards seemed to just produce backlash and negative reaction toward that one film and thanks to the internet, that backlash happens at lightning fast speed.


Updated On: 12/5/12 at 03:00 PM

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 12/5/12 at 3:09pm

What I'm gathering from some of these early critics' prizes is that LES MIZ is not the critical hit I initially thought it'd be. So far I've seen four or five top ten lists from respectable critics (single critics and critic groups) and the NBR has been the only one to mention LES MIZ, and the film has yet to garner any single critic's prize (though the ensemble award is encouraging, and yes, I know I might be speaking way too early here). I really thought Anne Hathaway would sweep these prizes. It's like the film has critical backlash before it even opened. I'm really shocked by the Leonardo DiCaprio mention, I'm curious to see the film but I can't imagine him being stronger than Philip Seymour Hoffman (who's likely being left out of these because of category confusion), Tommy Lee Jones, and Alan Arkin.

Updated On: 12/5/12 at 03:09 PM

[henrikegerman]

Posted: 12/5/12 at 3:11pm

^and yet both NYFCC and NBR agreed on best movie and director. And it's not as if these two bodies have a history of usually choosing the same winners. So this could possibly be a juggernaut for a slew of best movie and director awards for Zero Dark Thirty and Bigelow.

[tazber]

Posted: 12/5/12 at 3:12pm

I'm sticking to my prediction that the supporting actor race is between Tommy Lee Jones and Leo.

And Leo will probably win.

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 12/5/12 at 3:22pm

Henrik, I just hope it doesn't become a SOCIAL NETWORK situation where there might have been backlash given the fact it won just about every single critic's prize. THE KING'S SPEECH only became the frontrunner late in the game.
Taz, that could very well be the case, Jones has won already so they might feel compelled to give it to perennial nominee Leonardo DiCaprio. I can't see how DiCaprio's performance can match the brilliance of Jones', but it's all possible this early in the game.

[strummergirl]

Posted: 12/5/12 at 6:10pm

DiCaprio is playing a baddy which immediately gets attention. He saw the writing on the wall (after doing a lot of Oscar-bait over the years) and he wants it. At this point give it to him. Maybe that will stop him and Scorsese from making another picture together.

[Kad]

Posted: 12/5/12 at 6:36pm

The only thing I'm thinking is a clue from these early, smaller awards is the consistent recognition of Zero Dark Thirty and Bigelow. That will be the latecomer that could upset.

[best12bars]

Posted: 12/5/12 at 6:43pm

None of the critics awards handed out so far have been early indications of Oscar winners.

None of them.

[strummergirl]

Posted: 12/5/12 at 7:51pm

I wouldn't call Zero Dark Thirty a late-comer. Bigelow and Boal had a bin Laden movie in development when they were doing all the Oscar pageantry for The Hurt Locker, it was the failed Tora Bora capture. Then May 1st, 2011 happened and the whole script was reworked for that event (did not completely change the script as the Tora Bora capture and buildup man-hunt was a consistent theme). Most people anticipated the movie was going to have the goods but it has been a very secretive project whereas The Hurt Locker had a global run on the festival circuit for nearly a year before distribution.

[bobs3]

Posted: 12/5/12 at 7:57pm

Nothing about the Oscars will clearly emerge until the Golden Globes are handed out. The Hollywood Foreign Press is something of a joke in the film industry but rightly or wrongly so their awards are very influential when it comes to Oscar voters.

Les Miserables will almost certainly win comedy or musical film (if it doesn't win, it has no chance of winning the Oscar).

Expect Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty to be front runners for drama film. I have a feeling HFPA will prefer Lincoln.

If Sally Field wins supporting actress at the Globes, she will win the Oscar (she is much admired in the film industry both as an actor and activist).

[tazber]

Posted: 12/5/12 at 8:01pm

The Oscars have changed their dates this year. For the first time nomination ballots are due before the Golden Globes are handed out.

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 12/5/12 at 10:35pm

Yeah, the Globes won't affect the Oscar voting process at all this year.
And strummergirl, I believe people are calling ZERO DARK THIRTY a late-comer in the sense that it didn't premiere at any of the festivals and it hasn't even opened yet, so it's a bit of a late addition to an already packed Oscar season.
Besty, I don't think anything is decided by any of these awards, of course, but I do think we can start seeing how certain films are been received. The top ten lists are a big one, though I do remember THE KING'S SPEECH was left out from a lot of them.

[strummergirl]

Posted: 12/5/12 at 10:47pm

Gotcha, ray. You also had it tightly under wraps compared to the likes of Les Miz, Argo, Lincoln, etc.

Django Unchained was also noted as not making the deadline for a lot of critics lists because of its date (though I found Les Miz on a couple of lists but it was shown) so it is really hard to gauge consensus on it besides buzz though now I am wondering who makes up the National Board of Review who rewarded DiCaprio.

[StageManager2]

Posted: 12/6/12 at 1:22am

Yeah, the Globes won't affect the Oscar voting process at all this year.

The GGs never affected the Oscar nomination process, anyway, since they were usually held within a week of the announcements, and by then the majority of the ballots had already been mailed in. What the GGs could (and still can) influence was the outcome of the winners 'cause the ceremony is always held a month after the GGs. This year is no exception.

Updated On: 12/6/12 at 01:22 AM

[henrikegerman]

Posted: 12/6/12 at 8:44am

"Les Miserables will almost certainly win comedy or musical film (if it doesn't win, it has no chance of winning the Oscar)."

Almost certainly? What about Silver Linings Playbook?

Updated On: 12/6/12 at 08:44 AM

[best12bars]

Posted: 12/6/12 at 11:43am

ray, very true about the critics awards.

The only semi-decent indicators of the Oscars (and they aren't always parallel but have a better track record) are the various guild awards: SAG, DGA, Writers Guild, etc.

[tazber]

Posted: 12/6/12 at 12:13pm

Yea, the guilds are always the best indicators. Particularly SAG and the DGA.

[wicked1492]

Posted: 12/6/12 at 11:51pm

My favorite performance, hands down, this season was Sam Rockwell in Seven Psychopaths. REALLY wish he'd get some attention.

[henrikegerman]

Posted: 12/7/12 at 9:39am

Rockwell was also wonderful in Moon and last year in Conviction but he perpetually flies under award season radar.

[ucjrdude902]

Posted: 12/7/12 at 11:10pm

I will have to say that I just got home from "Argo" and thought it was incredible. Very strong picture in my opinion. Affleck really is growing into becoming one of the better directors.

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 12/8/12 at 4:53pm

I wonder how far ARGO can get this season. I also thought it was just absolutely brilliant in every way, the tone, the ensemble, the design, the editing, everything about it just worked. I think it'd probably get my vote for Picture and Director, the thing is it's such a strong year that it's hard to argue with the direction they decide to go. I worry ARGO will get overshadowed by the more politically relevant ZERO DARK THIRTY, but again, it's hard to complain about that movie (which looks so good) winning.

[madbrian]

Posted: 12/8/12 at 9:23pm

I saw Silver Linings Playbook, and Jennifer Lawrence was simply stunning. I don't think the movie was as good as Argo or Lincoln, but Lawremce was amazing.

[best12bars]

Posted: 12/9/12 at 4:37pm

The L.A. Film Critics are announcing their awards right now. They vote on each one separately and "haggle" in a room together until they agree.

They are in no way predictors of Academy Awards. They average around 25 percent in line with the Oscars.

Still, it's an anticipated critics award (not a guild or "peer" award).

Here's where they stand so far:


Best Picture
"Amour"
(Runner-up: "The Master")

Best Actor
Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master"
(Runner-up: Denis Lavant, "Holy Motors")

Best Actress
(TIE) Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook" and Emmanuelle Riva, "Amour"

Best Supporting Actor
Dwight Henry, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
(Runner-up: Christoph Waltz, "Django Unchained")

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, "The Master"
(Runner-up: Anne Hathaway, "Les Miserables" and "The Dark Knight Rises")

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, "The Master"
(Runner-up: Kathryn Bigelow, "Zero Dark Thirty")

Best Screenplay
"Argo"
(Runner-up: "Silver Linings Playbook")

Best Film Editing:
"Zero Dark Thirty"
(Runner-up: "Argo")

Best Cinematography
Roger Deakins, "Skyfall"
(Runner-up: Mihai Malaimare Jr., "The Master")

Best Documentary/Non-fiction Film
"The Gatekeepers"
(Runner-up: "Searching For Sugar Man")

Best Foreign-Language Film
TBA
(Runner-up: TBA)

Best Animated Film
"Frankenweenie"
(Runner-up: "It's Such a Beautiful Day")

Best Music/Score
Dan Romer and Benh Zeitlin, "Beasts of the Southern Wild."
(Runner-up: Jonny Greenwood, "The Master")

Best Production Design
David Crank and Jack Fisk, "The Master."
(Runner-up: Adam Stockhausen, "Moonrise Kingdom")

New Generation Award: TBA

Douglas E. Edwards Independent/Experimental Film/Video:
"Leviathan"

(UPDATED)

Updated On: 12/9/12 at 04:37 PM

[CapnHook]

Posted: 12/9/12 at 7:04pm

What's interesting there is that there was ZERO love for LINCOLN from the L.A. Critics.

[strummergirl]

Posted: 12/9/12 at 8:08pm

I am very impressed that they acknowledged Amour and The Holy Motors. I was expecting more middle-brow picks from the LA critics. Also thought Argo's screenplay, to me it's Achille's Heel, being the lone winner for it was s little bizarre. Then again, I keep on hearing the same about the script for SLP.