Oscars 2012- Page 2

[Kad]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 6:10pm

Is Kushner's screenplay for Lincoln being submitted as Adapted or Original? I know it's derived from Team of Rivals, but I really don't think of that as being the same sort of adaptation as, say, adaptation from a novel.

[best12bars]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 8:57pm

I haven't seen many of the performances for leading actress this year, but if I had to go on buzz alone, I would say Jennifer Lawrence will win it.

[Kad]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 9:02pm

Lawrence does have her age playing against her, though. She's very young.

[EricMontreal22]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 9:04pm

Kad, I believe I read (somewhere...) that Lincoln will be considered as adapted screenplay. Because it's credited that way in the mo9vie credits, I assume it would have to be for technical reasons alone.

[CapnHook]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 10:25pm

Looks like PERKS OF BEING A WALLFLOWER isn't going to gain enough momentum to beat MOONRISE KINGDOM or BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD. Sad. I was really hoping WALLFLOWER would pick up some steam.

Maggie Smith will not be nominated for BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL. The performance, and the film, were not memorable.

[strummergirl]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 10:31pm

The thing about Jennifer Lawrence is that the same stuff people are talking about being against her generally as a Best Actress nominee was already used against her the first time two years ago when she was up for Winter's Bone (which in retrospect was mistakenly all about Annette vs. Natalie when it should have been Jennifer vs. Natalie). Shouldn't the fact that she could get nominated again within a 2 year span have people drop the age talk? Cotillard already won, Chastain is a recent burst onto the scene film actress that many believe has her best work in front of her, an actual child in her debut for Beasts of the Southern Wild, and Emmanuelle Riva who is again an icon but only a few non-hardcore cinephiles actually know her work. This is not a strong category this year and I think stuff like age is not going to be the factor it has been.

[henrikegerman]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 11:04pm

The common wisdom is that leading actress isn't a strong category. I wonder if that conclusion has any real bearing on the performances, or if people merely think that because so many of the contenders appear in films that have not yet or have only recently been released, or in a few cases (Wallis, Weisz, Williams) in films which were relatively or very early in the year.

And because many of the year's biggest releases (Argo, Les Mis, Lincoln, (these three being the most talked about contenders for best pic), The Master, The Sessions, Flight, Life of Pi, Django Unchained) don't have leading women.

Judging from what I've read, heard, and from the few of these performances I've actually seen, this doesn't seem at all like a lightweight or particularly short list of contenders.

Cotillard*
Riva*
Wallis (highly acclaimed performance, possible nominee)
Mirren (terrific performance, possible nominee)
Chastain*
Watts
Winstead (highly acclaimed performance, possible nominee)
Lawrence*
Williams
Weisz (brilliant performance, dark horse)
Knightley
Lynskey
Smith (in Quartet)
Corinealdi (critically acclaimed performance)
Mann
Gerwig (up and coming star in three films with strong buzz about her work)
Blunt
DeWitt
Dench (in Marigold)

*very likely nominees (4) - question is who will get the fifth

There have been much weaker years for leading women.

[AC126748]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 11:10pm

Maggie Smith will not be nominated for BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL. The performance, and the film, were not memorable.

Then why are we still talking about it seven months after it was released? Why is Gold Derby currently predicting her as one of the five probable nominees? You're making a pronouncement and a sweeping generalization that doesn't align with anything other than YOUR own opinion.

which in retrospect was mistakenly all about Annette vs. Natalie when it should have been Jennifer vs. Natalie


The difference is that Bening actually had a shot to win. I'd argue Lawrence didn't. I don't think whether or not she'll win will be determined by her age--it will be determined by whether she can keep up the early momentum she's garnered.

[strummergirl]

Posted: 12/2/12 at 11:19pm

Lawrence got the momentum of 'great discovery' (she had a few film credits up to that point and only major credit was on **wait for it** The Bill Engvall Show) on a indie film based on a good book. The indie cred was a little fractured from the beginning though since both Bening and Portman technically came from indie movies and they were already household name actresses. It's only been two years and a whole lot has changed in terms of her recognition.

[CapnHook]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 12:00am

AC126748, no one is really "talking" about it. Her name is being brought up because pundits are stretching. They're grasping at straws to make some early predictions. Happens every year, and very few stick. Just watch -- I bet in 3 weeks time, all mention of her will be extremely bare. That category will be:

Amy Adams (The Master)
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)

and the fifth wildcard slot is likely going to go to Kerry Washington (Django Unchained), Samantha Barks (Les Miserables), or even a surprise placement from someone they're predicting from the Leading category, such as Helen Mirren (Hitchcock). There could also be sudden campaigning for performances not on the radar currently (Emma Watson, The Perks of Being A Wallflower' Barbra Streisand, The Guilt Trip). The later is unlikely, but possible.

If Smith is nominated, I'll be pleased that she has received another Oscar nod, but I don't think it's going to happen.

Updated On: 12/3/12 at 12:00 AM

[tazber]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 6:56am

Well, the pundits I follow generally have their pulse on at least some of the voting members so I wouldn't conclude that they're stretching when they mention Dench.

I'm not saying she'll get a nomination, but apparently there is legitimate talk about her.



I guess I'll state this now to avoid any confusion as we all prognosticate and discuss over the next two months:

everything I write regarding possible nominees and potential winners is based on what I've heard and or read. It will always be implied that I am referring strictly to the "will get a nomination/win" and not the "should get a nomination/win" (which is an entirely different discussion and thread that will start later in the year after we've all had a chance to see the films and form our own opinions).

Also, it should all be taken with a grain of salt as clearly I have no way knowing what will happen and what I hear/read may differ greatly from what others hear/read.

In general my sources are the trades, the industry websites, the couple of voters I know, the impact of the critics awards, and the other media outlets who follow these things.

[Huss417]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 7:08am

I thought the talk about Maggie Smith getting a nomination is for the film Quartet coming out that is directed by Dustin Hoffman. Shows how out of the loop I am.

[tazber]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 7:12am

I've read that as well. Dench is the only one from Marigold that I've seen mentioned.

[StageManager2]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 7:30am

Maggie was mentioned for Supporting Actress for Marigold Hotel, and she was in talks for Lead Actress for Quartet, but that film has been pushed back 'til January, so she won't be in contention anymore in the lead catoegory.

As for Dench, she's been mentioned for Lead Actress for Marigold Hotel and Supporting Actress for Skyfall, none of which I think will happen.

Updated On: 12/3/12 at 07:30 AM

[tazber]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 7:41am

I believe Quartet is opening in limited theaters December 28th to qualify for this years Oscars before its general opening in January.

[AC126748]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 9:01am

Yes, as far as I can tell QUARTET is still opening limited in 2012. So it will be eligible.

[StageManager2]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 9:09am

Yeah... well... I suppose. But she has no chance for Quartet. However, she is being pushed heavily for Marigold Hotel and her best chances lies there. So there.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/marigold-campaigner-maggie-smith-subject-396601

Updated On: 12/3/12 at 09:09 AM

[Huss417]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 9:29am

@StageManager2

Not sure why the "So there" comment but have you seen the film Quartet? If so would love to know why you feel no possible nomination from the film.

[henrikegerman]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 9:49am

Judi Dench (Skyfall)
Anne Hathaway
Helen Hunt
Sally Field

My hunch is the fifth will be Pauline Collins or Jacki Weaver. I'm not getting the big love for Amy Adams in The Master. Other than that it's Amy Adams.


Updated On: 12/3/12 at 09:49 AM

[tazber]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 10:13am

Haven't heard Pauline Collins' name mentioned, but I would love to see her make it into the supporting category.

Also, Django had its first screening and the industry types (with a lot of critics in attendance as well) have been tweeting rapturously.

So, Kerry Washington could emerge as a player in the supporting race as well.

Also, I know all the talk right now is Tommy Lee Jones, but watch out for Leo. He looks like he's giving an Oscar bait showboating performance. Playing against type and being a
multi-nominated non winner could win him a trophy.

Updated On: 12/3/12 at 10:13 AM

[henrikegerman]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 10:40am

Good point about Washington. Her character's name alone seems like sure oscar bait.

[AC126748]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 10:46am

Washington has done really fine work in the past (MOTHER AND CHILD, THE DEAD GIRL, even RAY) that hasn't gotten much traction. It would be nice to see her recognized, and a showier role might be the key.

[doodlenyc]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 12:46pm

I just dont understand why Hunt wasnt put in the lead category where she has a better chance.

[Kad]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 12:50pm

Django Unchained has to really impress to have traction. Unlike Inglorious Bastards and Christoph Waltz's performance therein, it hasn't been seen yet and has garnered no real buzz other than speculation.

[StageManager2]

Posted: 12/3/12 at 1:14pm

Not sure why the "So there" comment but have you seen the film Quartet? If so would love to know why you feel no possible nomination from the film.

I haven't seen Quartet. I was just going by the pundits' speculations and Smith seems to be a long shot for a Best Actress nomination, but she seems to be favored for Supporting Actress for Marigold Hotel as the 4th or 5th slot.

Incidentally, Sally Field just won Best Supporting Actress from New York Film Critics Circle.

Updated On: 12/3/12 at 01:14 PM