Who are your long shots for Oscar nods?

[touchmeinthemorning]

Posted: 1/30/06 at 10:39am

My picks for those I think may get a nod but no one is counting on are:

-Crash for best pic

-Eric Bana for best actor

-Keira Knightley for best actress

-Gong Li and Amy Adams for best supporting actress

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 1/30/06 at 10:41am

Who is Eric Bana and what film is he from?

[touchmeinthemorning]

Posted: 1/30/06 at 10:44am

Bana was the lead in Munich. IMHO, the best performance by an actor this year.

[best12bars]

Posted: 1/30/06 at 10:44am

touchme--Your list is great, but I don't think Kiera Knightley is a long shot. I do think we'll hear her name called out tomorrow for Best Actress.

Amy Adams, as well (for Supporting).

To me, a "long shot" would be that guy from the 40 Year Old Virgin. Although, I doubt it... it COULD happen.

[lildogs]

Posted: 1/30/06 at 10:45am

I could see all your choices happening except Bana...Adams is in I think, and the same with Crash.

Pic: History of Violence (not a long shot so much I know)
Director: Woody Allen, Match Point
Actor: Terence Howard, Hustle and Flow
Actress: Joan Allen, Upside of Anger
S. Actor: Jeffery Wright, Syriana
S. Actress: Frances McDormand, North Country

I don't know that I'd consider my picks long shots, but they aren't considered locks by any means.

[best12bars]

Posted: 1/30/06 at 10:46am

Jeffrey Wright is a GREAT long shot... I would love it if that happened.

[touchmeinthemorning]

Posted: 1/30/06 at 10:51am

My WAY long shots are Q'Orianka Kilcher in A New World and Ciarán Hinds from Munich -- both career achievements for these remarkable actors.

I hope Eric Bana gets a nod -- I bet money on it, even. Am I gonna lose?

Updated On: 1/30/06 at 10:51 AM

[broadway86]

Posted: 1/30/06 at 10:54am

Best Actor
Jeff Daniels, The Squid and the Whale
Ralph Fiennes, The Constant Gardener
Cillian Murphy, Breakfast on Pluto

Best Actress
Joan Allen, The Upside of Anger
Claire Danes, Shopgirl
Cameron Diaz, In Her ShoesJulianne Moore, The Prize Winner of Defiance, Ohio
Gwyneth Paltrow, Proof

Best Supporting Actor
Kevin Costner, The Upside of Anger
Val Kilmer, Kiss Kiss Bang Bang
Barry Pepper, The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada
Jeffrey Wright, Broken Flowers

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Junebug
Laura Linney, The Squid and the Whale
Robin Wright Penn, Nine Lives

[touchmeinthemorning]

Posted: 1/30/06 at 10:58am

Why is Robin Wright Penn not getting buzz?! It was such a great performance in a remarkable film.

[#1Elphie]

Posted: 1/30/06 at 10:58am

broadway86, I love your list. I hope at least some of those get nods.

[lildogs]

Posted: 1/30/06 at 10:59am

I can't go with you on that one--just too many good leads with MUCH showier parts--though I thought he was very good and is probably in the top five.

best12, I think Steve Carell absolutely deserves a nom--making what could have been an extended SNL skit into a moving and very funny film. But THE BEST person/film never gets nominated...ah well...he'll have to settle for huge box office and his Golden Globe.

[broadway86]

Posted: 1/30/06 at 11:00am

I think Steve Carell absolutely deserves a nom--making what could have been an extended SNL skit into a moving and very funny film.

I have to agree.

[Princeton78]

Posted: 1/30/06 at 11:04am

Gwyneth in PROOF
Anne in BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
Dame in PRIDE AND PREJUDICE
Apollo in ZOOLANDER
Idina Menzel in WICKED

[touchmeinthemorning]

Posted: 1/30/06 at 11:04am

I agree about Carell. If these awards were about giving awards to the best work, many of these nods would go away, and actors who made something out of a crappy script would be rewarded. Unfortunately, awards are given out to movies that people deem "important". I understand that on a level. The Academy brings in a lot of viewers with a nomination, so they want to nominate films that have progressive and/or political minds.

[mabel]

Posted: 1/30/06 at 11:09am

I was surprised Steve Carell didn't get a nomination for the Golden Globe in the Musical/Comedy category. I agree that he really did make something out of what could have been a run of the mill raunchy comedy.

And what did happen to Claire Danes in Shopgirl?!?! I'm not typically a fan of hers, but I loved her in this film and figured she would be much more of a presense in the awards season.

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 1/30/06 at 11:42am

Best Actor:
Cillian Murphy, Breakfast on Pluto

Best Supporting Actor:
Peter Sarsgaard, The Dying Gaul
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain

Best Supporting Actress:
Laura Linney, The Squid and the Whale

Screenplay:
Capote
Breakfast on Pluto
Transamerica

Updated On: 1/30/06 at 11:42 AM

[Auggie27]

Posted: 1/30/06 at 11:48am

Amy Adams.

Claire Danes.

Agree that there will be surprises (remember the best actress nod for WHALE RIDER?)

But look for Steve Carrell to get a nod for co-writing the screenplay for VIRGIN. He's up for the WGA award, surprising everyone, and the Academy writing voters are all in the WGA.

And look for BROKEBACK to have fewer than the eleven people are suggesting are a done deal.

[touchmeinthemorning]

Posted: 1/30/06 at 11:49am

And look for BROKEBACK to have fewer than the eleven people are suggesting are a done deal.

?? Please decode this.

[lildogs]

Posted: 1/30/06 at 11:53am

Foster, I think Jake and Capote screenplay are shoo-ins...

I also have no idea what you mean, Auggie...

[Princeton78]

Posted: 1/30/06 at 11:59am

I think Auggie means that Brokeback will NOT get the 11 nods that people are fully expecting it will.
It actually seems to be losing steam.

And the Whale Rider best actress nod was brilliant BTW.

[touchmeinthemorning]

Posted: 1/30/06 at 12:03pm

I don't think anyone is expecting 11. I think the expectation is 8 or 9.

Picture
Director
Actor
Sup. Actor
Sup. Actress
Screenplay
Score
Song
Cinematog

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 1/30/06 at 12:16pm

Brokeback is hardly losing steam. It will get at least 10 nominations I predict!

My longshots are Naomi Watts for King Kong, Terrence Howard for Hustle & Flow and Crash, Thandie Newton for Crash, Howard's screen gf in Hustle & Flow, Scarlett J for Matchpoint, and silly as it may sound, I wish Ian McDiarmid could be nominated for Revenge of the Sith for his best scenery chewing performance since Glenn Close's last film!

I think Crash will get the Best Picture nom.

[touchmeinthemorning]

Posted: 1/30/06 at 12:25pm

I knew jerby would chime in on this thread!

I can't believe Thandie Newton hasn't won a slew of awards yet! She's ridiculously talented.

[Kringas]

Posted: 1/30/06 at 12:27pm

Is Amy Adams really such a long shot? She most likely won't win, but hasn't she picked up every* supporting actress nomination there is thus far? Isn't her Oscar nom almost guaranteed?


*And before the BWW literalists jump in, I am of course speaking hyperbolically. She has received more than a fair amount of nominations already, though.

Updated On: 1/30/06 at 12:27 PM

[Borstalboy]

Posted: 1/30/06 at 12:32pm

Will never in a million years get nominated for Best Supporting Actress, but perhaps should: Ellen Barkin in PALINDROMES