hilly clinton cannot win and only continues because she secretly hates the democratic party- Page 2

[PalJoey]

Posted: 3/5/08 at 11:42am

I think the "reservoir of hatred" is vastly overblown. She has an equally strong "reservoir of love" among 40-something and older women, among many groups of working-class voters and among Latinos over 35 or so. Even AA voters, many of who would definitely vote for a Clinton/Obama ticket.

She also has a reservoir of love among gay men old enough (like me) to remember losing friend after friend after friend during a cold and uncaring Reagan/Bush administration, during which the White House and the prevailing culture made us feel like our friends were freaks and degenerates.

The Clintons came in with an unexpected inclusiveness that for many of us will never be forgotten or erased, even by the legislative defeats of DADT and DOMA. (Many of us but, no, not all of us.)

But the biggest reason we see her defeating John McCain is her reach into the heartland, the "fly-over states," as Javero called them, as evidenced by what she did last night in Ohio:



She took Toledo. They don't hate her in Ohio as much as the right-wingers and the left-wingers and the media and the blogs would all have you believe.

The reservoir of hatred is just another anti-Hillary meme.

[DG]

Posted: 3/5/08 at 11:46am

PJ - interesting map of Ohio. Doesn't it just show how Dems voted in the primary, though? That wouldn't indicate how the general population will vote.

I still have many ties to various "fly-over" states - and the vitriol directed toward Hillary is palpable.

[PalJoey]

Posted: 3/5/08 at 11:58am

DG--I think the vitriol is loud, but I really don't think it is widespread. It's comes from the crackpot class (right and left), not from the middle class. I have seen her speak to women's groups, and the audience that loves her is middle-class, middle-American, middle-aged...a broad spectrum.

These are the people who are not loudly anti-Bush, just disappointed by eight years of war and a bad economy. McCain is uninspiring and represents more of the same to them.

They remember Hillary fondly, not as a witch or an anti-Christ. That's the significance of the map. The voters in rural Ohio are not the cliche image of Democrats.

I think she has a stronger chance of defeating McCain than Obama does.

Posted: 3/5/08 at 12:11pm

I think Hilary might as well embrace her Witch-ness. She's on the right track saying that she & Barack would make a dream ticket- she just needs to change her tone a bit. Might I suggest:

"Unlimited!
Together we're unlimited
Together we'll be the greatest team
There's ever been - Barack!
Dreams the way we planned 'em
If we work in tandem
There's no fight we cannot win..."

[javero]

Posted: 3/5/08 at 12:17pm

Ohio-2004 By County - General Election

Updated On: 3/5/08 at 12:17 PM

[tazber]

Posted: 3/5/08 at 12:19pm

ha! Can you imagine if politicians chose show tunes for their campaign songs?

God I Hope I Get It - Hillary
Razzle Dazzle - Obama
Mister Cellophane - Nader

[madbrian]

Posted: 3/5/08 at 12:34pm

Obama singing Popular to Hillary?

[tazber]

Posted: 3/5/08 at 12:35pm

Good one!

[nygrl23]

Posted: 3/5/08 at 12:40pm

I find it disheartening how politics has been a cycle instead of a forward trajectory. The cold Reagan era, as you put it PJ, followed by Bush, which was an appetizer compared to the last 8 years, followed by an era of more inclusiveness and acceptance. Now we're back to trying to fix things by pushing the pendulum the other way.

Why does this have to be about 2 parties, bipartisanship, divisiveness, Tweedledee vs. Tweedledum? I don't think of the Dems as either character, but politics always boils down to a simplistic 2-person choice. And choice should probably be put into quotes.

[javero]

Posted: 3/5/08 at 12:41pm

and while we're on the subject of counties, this is how the presidential race broke down in 2004 based on county. We Dems have our work cut out for us.

[tazber]

Posted: 3/5/08 at 12:45pm

well, George W. has done a lot of the work for us javero.

Posted: 3/5/08 at 12:45pm

Javero, that map is pure republican propaganda and means NOTHING. It's their attempt to prove a non-existent mandate. It doesn't matter WHERE the voters live, it's the number of voters that count. And the last 5 Presidental races have all been very very close. Republicans tend to carry rural areas, Dems urban- but that makes no block of voters more or less important.

People vote. Land doesn't.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 3/5/08 at 12:51pm

A more appropriate map

[smartpenguin78]

Posted: 3/5/08 at 12:52pm

While what Joe says is true, that county map actually makes the task seem less daunting than the normal state map from 2004 that just looks like and sea of red.
This one shows better what Joe is saying, populated areas trend democratic and rural areas republican, which plays to Pal Joey's point about Hillary, if she holds the cities and pulls in some country she wins.


ETA: GREAT new map Jerby!

Updated On: 3/5/08 at 12:52 PM

[~FloweryFriend~]

Posted: 3/5/08 at 12:59pm

Gosh, I hate superdelegates. Almost as much as I hate the electoral college.

[Poppy]

Posted: 3/5/08 at 1:09pm

Hillary - You Go Girl!!!!!!!!!

[Roninjoey]

Posted: 3/5/08 at 1:12pm

Nygirl, you're wrong. It's no longer a two party system. It's a two family system.

PalJoey, that's all good and well to say that Hillary will carry traditionally democratic places and groups, but I do think the question remains whether or not she can carry swing states and swing demographics. Leaving Obama out of it for a moment, how is she going to look in a debate against McCain on national security? I can easily envision a scenario where McCain, now having safely secured the nomination and a fiscally conservative economically minded VP candidate, gets his own red phone propaganda started...

Can Hillary bring out the black vote and the under 30 set to push her over? Can she swing the white male vote? If she gets the nomination, I hope so.

[PalJoey]

Posted: 3/5/08 at 1:14pm

Why does this have to be about 2 parties, bipartisanship, divisiveness, Tweedledee vs. Tweedledum?

Because if there were only one party, it would be called a dictatorship.

[amalou]

Posted: 3/5/08 at 1:20pm

I don't think she could beat McCain and even if she could, what's the difference? She's working for herself and her own popularity, not the American people. She voted for the war because it was the popular idea. Now she's against the war because things have changed and it's become safe to oppose the war.

She also slammed Obama recently saying "I have experience and I would make a great president, McCain has experience and will be a great president. Obama gave a speech in 2002." Not a direct quote, I heard it on the radio, but it was something very close along those lines. So basically she'd be a-okay with either her or McCain becoming president? That doesn't really compel me, as a democrat, to vote for her!

[javero]

Posted: 3/5/08 at 1:23pm

I'm proud that my state of MD has opted to drop out of the electoral college provided the other states come along.

Trust me, some folks are busy working behind the scenes on a way to deal a death blow to the delegate system as well. The current system penalizes delegates assigned to the dense population centers.

Speaking of delegates, one of my PA sources just forwarded an article to me indicating that Hillary had failed to file a full slate of convention delegate candidates for Pennsylvania's April 22 primary, prompting the governor to extend the deadline. Details at the following link.

http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/02/clinton_fails_to_slate_full_pa.html

MD Says Adios to Electoral College

Updated On: 3/5/08 at 01:23 PM

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 3/5/08 at 1:25pm

I don't think that of Hillary at all. At. All.

[Jilani]

Posted: 3/5/08 at 1:29pm

I still haven't seen much in the way of convincing arguments as to how Hillary will be better than Obama at winning over independents, who historically have great love for McCain.

And the hatred point is more about increasing Republican turnout - as it is, we know that hard-core conservative Republicans are not very enthusiastic about McCain, and if it's a choice between him and Obama, they may just stay home. Having Hillary as a candidate gives hard-core conservatives a reason to go to the polls: to vote against her. All other things equal, Obama just doesn't inspire the same negative response among them.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 3/5/08 at 1:35pm

There is also the idea that Hillary can't really be swift boated--they have tried everything on her already.

Buzz is that Obama will be very weak in this department--Hillary hasn't even begun to hit him hard. And the GOP will.

[TheHumanTorch]

Posted: 3/5/08 at 1:39pm

"There is also the idea that Hillary can't really be swift boated"

Well at least at Americablog and numerous other Democratic-leaning blogs, the swift boating of Clinton has not yet begun. Their position is, if Clinton continues to throw the kitchen sink at Obama and if she continues to attempt to degrade him in such a manner, they will begin to air all of this unseemly information and gossip they have on her... and it will not be pretty.

And also seriously, why does she refuse to release her tax returns? Does she really have nothing to hide?

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 3/5/08 at 2:12pm

i'm proud that my state of md has opted to drop out of the electoral college provided the other states come along.

yeah, that whole constitution thing doesn't mean anything anymore anyway.