Thoughts:
I'm worried The Inheritance ruling will screw Andrew Burnap out of a nomination. Or they could all miss. Lead Actor in a Play is STACKED this year (Tracy Letts, Mark Addy, Ian Barford, the 3 Lehman actors, Sam Rockwell, David Morse, Rupert Everett, Jessie Williams, and about a dozen others). The silver lining is that Paul Hilton is more secure for Featured Actor (and his delivery of that gorgeous monologue makes him more than deserving), but I'm worried about Soller or Burnap getting crowded out.
Joaquina Kalukango could have won Featured Actress, even with a closed play. ...but I have a hard time seeing her winning Lead. The double whammy of Mary-Louise Parker is going to be difficult to beat, and Kalukango is in an ensemble piece whereas other lead actress contenders are the central characters in their plays.
I am also scratching my head at Kristin Stokes in Lead. I mean it wasnt going to go anywhere no matter which category, but Lightning Thief fans could have at least entertained some absolute shocker of a nom in featured.
I take it that by not mentioning that the "special events" in the discussed shows, that they did not submit themselves for consideration. For some this makes sense (I knew Slava wasn't participating). But I was under the impression that Derren Brown Secret did submit for Tony consideration. Is it possible they were only seeking a special award and not the competitive ones?
When are they going to get over themselves and add a projection design category? They can't even be consistent in terms of whether projection designers are considered with lighting or sets. It could be a combined category for plays and musicals, but it is blatantly obvious that this discipline has become a design staple on Broadway that should be considered on its own.
I also wish they would list if a play is eligible for Best Score in these decisions. They consistently fail to do that each year. I assume A Christmas Carol is b/c Christopher Nightingale is credited as composer.