2021-2022 Season Recoupment

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 1/11/22 at 11:36am

Happy New Year! We follow a commercially-driven industry, and the COVID pandemic doesn't change the fact that there are financial winners and losers. Based on what has officially opened to date...

 

We can safely assume that the following commercially-produced shows have been –– or will be –– complete financial failures:

1. Pass Over (August Wilson Theatre)

2. Chicken & Biscuits (Circle in the Square Theatre)

3. Is This a Room/Dana H. (Lyceum Theatre)

4. Thoughts Of A Colored Man (John Golden Theatre)

5. Diana, The Musical (Longacre Theatre)

6. Slave Play (August Wilson Theatre)

7. Caroline, or Change (Studio 54) –– had commercial profit participants involved

8. Flying Over Sunset (Vivian Beaumont Theater) –– had commercial profit participants involved

 

I am going to assume the following also closed (or will close) without reaching 100% recoupment:

1. The Lehman Trilogy (Nederlander Theatre)

2. American Utopia (St. James Theatre)

3. Freestyle Love Supreme (Booth Theatre)

4. Girl From The North Country (Belasco Theatre)

 

That leaves us with a few shows for which the fates are unknown:

1. Springsteen on Broadway (St. James Theatre) –– safe to assume this made profit

2. Six (Brooks Atkinson Theatre) –– should be close to recouping. For the sake of modesty, we may never see an official announcement about this.

3. Company (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre) –– too early to tell

4. Mrs. Doubtfire (Stephen Sondheim Theatre) –– too early to tell; pending reopening

5. Waitress (Ethel Barrymore Theatre) –– a unique situation with it being a return engagement that was filmed

Updated On: 1/11/22 at 11:36 AM

[kurtal]

Posted: 1/11/22 at 12:43pm

I can't imagine The Music Man not recouping.

[itsjustmejonhotmailcom]

Posted: 1/11/22 at 12:55pm

kurtal said: "I can't imagine The Music Man not recouping."

Stranger things have happened. Hello Dolly just barely eked out a single-digit return.

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 1/11/22 at 12:58pm

Thank you for starting this thread. I’m very intrigued who will recoup or not. I’m sure The Music Man will eventually recoup, as will MJ. Just find it interesting you list Girl From The North Country as a show that won’t recoup(do you know something we don’t know)? At the same time you assume Mrs. Doubtfire is still up in the air. I think it’s likely Waitress was paid to return this time around to be filmed, probably for Apple TV or another streaming service.

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 1/11/22 at 1:03pm

Too early in the run to make predix about MUSIC MAN or DOUBTFIRE, but MM is probably a safer bet than Doubtfire if Hugh Jackman can play through his entire engagement.

I know no specifics of North Country except that it obviously isn't selling many tickets and has had several months to prove itself (unlike the two above). It seems to be treading water and I'm surprised to see that it hasn't announced yet.

A filming deal probably wouldn't cover the entire remount of Waitress, but I don't know any specifics.

[raddersons]

Posted: 1/11/22 at 1:03pm

kurtal said: "I can't imagine The Music Man not recouping."

When you get a star like Jackman, you have to pay for them. Wouldn't be surprised if his salary were a large part of the weekly budget.

[Wick3]

Posted: 1/11/22 at 1:04pm

Yeah not so sure about Music Man anymore. It all depends how much they're paying Hugh and Sutton each week.

For Hello Dolly, I recall Bette Midler earned around $150k *each* week! 

In addition, nowadays tickets are refundable up to 48 hours before curtain. Before pandemic that was unheard of. Even if you look at tickets for Music Man there are several available orch seats nowadays due to people asking for exchange or refunds.

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 1/11/22 at 1:10pm

ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "I am going to assume the following also closed (or will close) without reaching 100% recoupment:

1.The Lehman Trilogy(Nederlander Theatre)"

I think it's quite possible that The Lehman Trilogy recouped, no? It was extremely well-sold when I was searching for tickets in November.

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 1/11/22 at 1:51pm

My guess is that LEHMAN was able to return some money for its investors –– maybe 20% –– but sales had really softened after the first month of the run. Tickets were regularly on TDF and discount sites. And it was a long play with a large cast and production values. It surely sold more full-priced premiums than something like SLAVE PLAY or THOUGHTS.

If someone with actual knowledge would like to dispute any of my list above by providing firsthand info, I and others would welcome it!!!

Updated On: 1/11/22 at 01:51 PM

[JSquared2]

Posted: 1/11/22 at 2:08pm

A number of these shows (including Lehman, Diana, North Country, American Utopia as well as LCT, Roundabout, received $10M (or close to it) in SVOG.  So that needs to be taken into consideration.  Diana also received Netflix $$.  So by closing early. their producers may have been able to walk away with a tidy profit.  

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 1/11/22 at 2:36pm

I’d put my money on A Strange Loop recouping sometime in 2023 after it wins Best Musical at this year’s Tonys. Not sure about Beetlejuice though… it had played about a full year on Broadway before the shutdown, will last AT LEAST another six months at the Marquis, and has proven to be a very hot ticket.

Updated On: 1/11/22 at 02:36 PM

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 1/11/22 at 2:45pm

JSquared2 said: "A number of these shows (includingLehman, Diana, North Country, American Utopiaas well as LCT, Roundabout, received $10M (or close to it) in SVOG. So that needs to be taken into consideration. Dianaalso received Netflix $$. So by closing early. their producers may have been able to walk away with a tidy profit."

The SVOG money doesn't go into the coffers, though. I think it was Jeffrey Seller of HAMILTON who did an interview outlining exactly where the money goes, and it's used to offset the costs of the yearlong shutdown, rehearsal/tech costs, advertising costs, etc. The SVOG money encouraged shows to return when they might not have, but it doesn't make them profitable. $10M can be burned through quickly on Broadway.

DIANA's Netflix deal was reported to be approximately $10M, which would be split between authors and production/investors. The show itself cost $17.5 mil. So while the investors probably received a small payout from the Netflix deal, it wasn't anything close to full recoupment.

[itsjustmejonhotmailcom]

Posted: 1/11/22 at 2:54pm

ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "JSquared2 said: "A number of these shows (includingLehman, Diana, North Country, American Utopiaas well as LCT, Roundabout, received $10M (or close to it) in SVOG. So that needs to be taken into consideration. Dianaalso received Netflix $$. So by closing early. their producers may have been able to walk away with a tidy profit."

The SVOG money doesn't go into the coffers, though. I think it was Jeffrey Seller of HAMILTON who did an interview outlining exactly where the money goes, and it's used to offset the costs of the yearlong shutdown, rehearsal/tech costs, advertising costs, etc. The SVOG money encouraged shows to return when they might not have, but it doesn't make them profitable. $10M can be burned through quickly on Broadway.

DIANA's Netflix deal was reported to be approximately $10M, which would be split between authors and production/investors. The show itself cost $17.5 mil. So while the investors probably received a small payout from the Netflix deal, it wasn't anything close to full recoupment."

But the SVOG money does benefit investors in that the expenses it covered frees up money that would have otherwise been spent to either spend on something else or return to investors. Regarding Netflix, Diana got significantly less than that.

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 1/11/22 at 2:57pm

Yes and the "something else," in most cases, is giving shows a financial cushion in weeks when they're not hitting their weekly nut so they don't close even quicker than they already have. It has likely, above all, prevented a need for priority loans for the titles in question.