Thanks Sutton! You're awesome too!
Yea, I watched the IG video of Adrienne Warren's remarks at that rally and that's when I started wondering if she's fumbling her Tony at the one yard line.
There are only 3 nominees in that category: Adrienne Warren (Tina), Karen Olivo (Moulin Rouge), and Elizabeth Stanley (Jagged Little Pill).
Adrienne Warren was an absolute lock according to the buzz around the show. The reviews said she was the reason to see the show, and even in what the full season would have been this year, the buzz declared that she would have dominated. (I saw the show in February 2020 - with her understudy, actually - and agree that the rest of the show around the role of Tina is not strong. Her understudy was fantastic btw and would make an excellent alternate or replacement depending on how things turn out). But I agree with you, the community probably won't take kindly to her remarks about how the industry is run, could feel directly insulted by her, and that could cost her the award.
Karen Olivo has certainly made headlines with her decision to not even return to the show she is nominated for, and a lot of the reactions to her decision have been that it is not a very productive move for any cause. That could certainly affect how voters vote, again - they could be insulted by her as well. (I saw this show on the same Feb 2020 trip - with her understudy as well, coincidently - and thought the show was wonderful no matter who is in the cast. Except for Danny Burstein who deserves to win. But the cast is not the attraction for that show, it's the production design and the use of their music catalog). But all things being equal in a full season she may not have even been nominated since the show really outshines her.
This leaves Elizabeth Stanley, who is the only other nominee by absolute default! There were literally no other leading female roles in musicals that opened in time to be eligible for this season other than these 3, and they all got nominated. I personally believe that is the only reason she was nominated (and maybe the same reason for Karen Olivo to be honest). But given that the other 2 nominees could have shot themselves in the foot, could that make both musical lead acting categories one-person-races? I don't know. (For the record, I did not see Jagged Little Pill and am commenting on this actress's performance without actually seeing it myself. Oh dear, I might be the first person on this message board to do that....).