Be more chill predictions - Page 2

[dramamama611]

Posted: 2/16/19 at 7:58pm

Precisely. You were the one comparing Disney with this show. We're pointing that they arent similar

[Dollypop]

Posted: 2/16/19 at 9:47pm

Adult friends of mine saw the show this afternoon and thought it was a few notches lower than "meh"

Updated On: 2/16/19 at 09:47 PM

[tomwsjr]

Posted: 2/16/19 at 10:05pm

I have a feeling this show is going to attract many immature crazy fans obsessing over this trite musical

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 2/16/19 at 10:40pm

Andres_123 said: "Predictions and opinions are welcome, I think it will do great in its first few months"


What are your predictions re: grosses, then? How do you define "do great," in comparison to the competitive marketplace, slow time of year, and similar shows in the past? Put your money where your mouth is!!

For its first 7-show week, I could see the gross potential being about 40% or $400K, which would be a moderate start but a far way from "great," with an expected dip in the second or third week. (Let's not waste any time on % of seats sold, because that's a poor barometer for success for a show that's been comping/discounting.)

Most producers would throw in the towel after a review as bad as Ben Brantley's in the NYT (the only review that counts) –– especially since the show hasn't been substantially changed since Off-B, it could have trouble attracting adults, and it doesn't have a clear road to the Tonys. These producers have guts and dedication (or they're delusional), and I'm rooting for them and the show!

Updated On: 2/16/19 at 10:40 PM

[Wick3]

Posted: 2/16/19 at 10:48pm

I saw the show off-broadway and remember how sold out it was. It really depends whether those same fans are willing to spend more money to see it on Broadway or whether they feel content seeing the production since the off bway version was just a few months ago.

I also remember how sales looked really good the first week (around xmas break I recall some friends trying to get tix for the first preview of Be More Chill as a xmas present but it was already sold out.) It looks to me the producers held back too many seats and released them too late, hence why we saw the show on TKTS. 

I'm rooting for this show to succeed. I know Will Roland gained fame from his DEH days and I wonder whether the DEH fans will go and watch BMC. If the show does a vlog for Broadwaycom, I actually hope they don't pick Will since his vlog for DEH wasn't that great compared to other shows.

[n2nbaby]

Posted: 2/16/19 at 11:01pm

...we are already 2 episodes into BMC’s Broadway.com vlog.

[Wick3]

Posted: 2/16/19 at 11:06pm

n2nbaby said: "...we are already 2 episodes into BMC’s Broadway.com vlog."

lol wow that's early! obviously i haven't seen any of it yet. 

 

[RWPrincess]

Posted: 2/16/19 at 11:28pm

George is doing the Vlog. I've been following him on social media and he seems to have a fun personality. I haven't watched the Vlog yet though.

[RWPrincess]

Posted: 2/16/19 at 11:46pm

dramamama611 said: "Precisely. You were the one comparing Disney with this show. We're pointing that they arent similar"

I never said they were similar. I said they've figured out how to market both kids/teens and to adults. I didn't say anything about the adults being parents of the kids/teens or BMC being family friendly. I simply don't think BMC will figure out the same type of strategy for success. Perhaps if I use DEH as my example next time, that won't trigger an attack on my opinion.

 

[Andres_123]

Posted: 2/16/19 at 11:53pm

One thing I wish the producers didn't do was start selling new seats close to the start of previews. I believe this is the reason why it's been on TKTS in it's first week. The first preview had been sold out for months along with other performances and than out of the blue they say new seats released for February and March. If the producers didn't release new seats it would not be on TKTS as many of the shows were selling really well with most sold out or close to it. Even with new tickets being released the show has managed to do really well with Saturday's night show having only two seats left and the first preview selling out. I think it will have a 97 or 98 capacity but a lower gross potential because of lower ticket prices and being on TKTS

[senorvoce2]

Posted: 2/17/19 at 12:18am

Delete Updated On: 2/17/19 at 12:18 AM

[Scarlet Leigh]

Posted: 2/17/19 at 12:36am

Andres_123 said: "I think it will have a 97 or 98 capacity but a lower gross potential because of lower ticket prices and being on TKTS"

This. Selling out shows does not mean it's a success. Once On this Island always had pretty high capacity but the fact that they were selling the majority of their seats at a discounted price did not translate to high grosses. And it will be hard to get a grasp on the grosses for this early time because being that it's a holiday weekend and it seems that all shows are all pretty much sold out or near too it.... minus King Kong.
 

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 2/17/19 at 1:07am

Let's not waste any time on % of seats sold, because that's a poor barometer for success for a show that's been comping/discounting. It's all about the % of gross potential.

Were a lot of seats released at the last minute for the 1st prev? Sometimes extra house seats are held for co-producers/investors or other partners or production personnel, as a precautionary measure. It's also worth noting: This production has some key personnel who are new to Broadway –– including a general management switcheroo last week –– so they could be doing some things differently than other shows.

Updated On: 2/17/19 at 01:07 AM

[dramamama611]

Posted: 2/17/19 at 6:33am

RWPrincess said: "dramamama611 said: "Precisely. You were the one comparing Disney with this show. We're pointing that they arent similar"

I never said they were similar. I said they've figured out how to market both kids/teens and to adults. I didn't say anything about the adults being parents of the kids/teens or BMC being family friendly. I simply don't think BMC will figure out the same type of strategy for success. Perhaps if I use DEH as my example next time, that won't trigger an attack on my opinion.

"

Jesus....not agreeing with you isnt an attack, its a conversation.  And again...it has nothing to do with Disney being mentioned. 

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 2/19/19 at 10:25am

SomethingPeculiar said: "For its first 7-show week, I could see the gross potential being about 40% or $400K"


I'll eat my hat!

Per Broadway Briefing: Be More Chill broke the house record at The Lyceum Theatre for a seven-performance week with a gross of $738,383.50.

Now, let's not jump to conclusions that this is a juggernaut smash-hit: many shows front-load the first two weeks of previews...but it's a good start!

[vampire musical]

Posted: 2/19/19 at 11:34am

And the weekly running cost is below some plays currently on Broadway so with those numbers they will be just fine for quite some time. They already know what the reviews will be because they were reviewed in NY. So really they need word of mouth to spread beyond the teen fanbase and they need parents to hear that it's fun for them too. That's the message this show needs to survive. 

[Wick3]

Posted: 2/19/19 at 11:56am

SomethingPeculiar said: "Let's not waste any time on % of seats sold, because that's a poor barometer for success for a show that's been comping/discounting.It's all about the % of gross potential.

Were a lot of seats released at the last minute for the 1st prev? Sometimes extra house seats are held for co-producers/investors or other partners or production personnel,as a precautionary measure.It's also worth noting: This production has some key personnel who are new to Broadway –– including a general management switcheroolast week––so they could be doing some things differently than other shows."

Even % gross potential can be misleading since it ultimately depends on the original ticket price and how many premium seats they sell. Personally I prefer to look at average ticket price sold as a way to see if the show is doing well. Ultimately we'll never know if the show is sinking or swimming unless we know the weekly nugget. Given the small number of cast members I can see this show having a smaller weekly nugget than others. 

For previews, I agree with Andres that they released too many seats close to the time of the show as they could have easily sold those seats months ago especially if they weren't at premium prices. Regardless, the main point of previews (I think) is to get 100% capacity to help with word of mouth.

I'm rooting for this show to succeed or at least recoup the initial investment. 

[Andres_123]

Posted: 2/19/19 at 3:16pm

Grosses are in and Be more chill is starting off super strong! The average paid ticket was 120.71 and the top ticket was 397! I knew it was going to be 9 or 99 but the potential gross was 92.5

[getupngo]

Posted: 2/20/19 at 12:15pm

_(•_&bull_/ said: "If you have lurked here before, you should know this is how we react to ANY pointless thread."

lmao amen <3

[Robbie2]

Posted: 2/20/19 at 9:40pm

tomwsjr said: "I have a feeling this show is going to attract many immature crazy fans obsessing over this trite musical"

 

Yup teens-25 is the target market. They will have a hard time marketing this to the older generation the market that attends BWAY musicals! We surely have no interest and we're in our early 40's and none of our friends will be seeing this and I highly doubt anyone over 40 will have interest and that will be problematic in the long run. DEH is more appealing in general and will survive and be seen by all age groups! I give it 6-9 months as these kids can't afford seeing it more than once but glad this generation is enjoying and relating to the show.

Updated On: 2/20/19 at 09:40 PM

[Lot666]

Posted: 2/21/19 at 1:32pm

Robbie2 said: "I highly doubt anyone over 40 will have interest and that will be problematic in the long run."

I'm in my 50s and I'm going in June.

 

[gavinfaucheux]

Posted: 6/10/19 at 5:38pm

While I do enjoy Be More Chill, it probably won't last very long. It's a show for the teens, not the parents. People won't come running to the theatre everyday for this show. I even feel that the theatre will definitely not sell out anytime ever again. The actors are very good, and put on an enjoyable performance (from the clips that I've seen), but it won't be on Broadway for much longer.

[Braniff Forever]

Posted: 6/10/19 at 9:44pm

I wonder why there was such hype for BMC, with multiple news outlets saying things like “it’s gonna be the next Hamilton?” Well, it certainly didn’t live up to its hype. Why? I’ve seen it twice and liked it. But it seems hard to make it appeal to the masses for some reason. I don’t know how a show with that much hype, could fail so?

[dramamama611]

Posted: 6/11/19 at 3:18pm

Really?  Someone said it was the next Hamilton???????    That person should never communicate in public again.

 

And, as I've mentioned: this is not even teen foolproof.   The group of 50 I brought (all HS kids) pretty much HATED this.  Yes, there were some that didn't, but not many.  (And yes, I pretty much talk to ALL of them.)