"Best Musical" 2007 TONY Contenders — Page 4

I see Grey Gardens and Spring Awakening getting nominations! (And I hope that SA wins!) Poppins is all about the spectacle with no deep down soul or feeling.

Lion King beat our Ragtime, Avenue Crap beat out Wicked, so my guess is that a show like GG or SA would beat out the bigger shows.

My prediction is:

Curtains
Spring AWakening
Grey Gardens
LoveMusik

Legally Blonde could take one of the spots(most likely LoveMusik), but I wouldn't count on it.

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FutureAlladin, Mar Poppins will most likely get snubbed becuase it recieved lackluster reviews, and Disney isn't exactly a Tony darling. If it were a weaker year, Poppins would be nominated. But, this yera has extremely strong shows, and it will most likely get snubbed for a Best Musical nom.

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"1.) A Disney Classic"

Its status as a movie should have no bearing on the merits or accoulades the stage show receives.

"2.) An Amazing Show"

I respect your opinion. However most critics were very mixed on the show, as was I. I really wanted to love it, but found it hard not to notice its glaring structural problems. The nominating committee should realize a nomination means a win thanks to the out-of-town voters, and there are much better shows out there this season who deserve to duke it out. Besides, all politics aside, I think that with the Legally Blonde, The Pirate Queen, and LoveMusik yet to open, I find it very unlikely that it will deserve to be in the "Top 4" of the season.

"3.) AIDA may not have won, but it definatly deserved it,"

Again, this should have no baring on Mary Poppins. Whether I think this at least deserved a nomination or not, this is an argument for another year.

"I think the other nominations would be Legally Blonde, The Pirate Queen, Curtains, and Grey Gardens..and possibly between LoveMusik & Spring Awakening..."

There is simply no way in hell that The Pirate Queen is getting nominated over Spring Awakening. I wish Pirate Queen the best, but after the out-of-town reveiws, and the fact that Spring Awakening has already opened to ACROSS THE BOARD RAVES, it just is not happening. Even if Spring Awakening loses to something more commercial, i.e. Legally Blonde and or Curtains (which is more light than commercial), it WILL get a nomination.

Now I could be wrong and Mary Poppins may get a nomination. But your going to have to come up with better reasons than that.

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Spring Awakening is actually doing quite well, so it is an audience sucess. And the fact that it did get across-the-board raves does help it. Spring and Grey Gardens are both locks for nominations at this point.

As for the Liokn King's reviews, it recieve the best critical reaction of any Disney show. Many critics praised it, largely due to JUlie Taymor's direction, also a big factor as to why the show won Best Musical).

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It's just so hard to tell what people will make their judgements upon. Look at the upset between Wicked and Avenue Q. The majority of this board expected Wicked to take Best Musical. Even the Cast of Avenue Q were surprised they bested Wicked out.

So this guess-ti-mation of who's so wonderful, who in hell won't get the nomination and who all the top runners are, is only speculation and crystal ball vision. Even all the reviewers (who write the publicized reviews) are subjective to their own taste and style. We can all have our opinions, however let's wait for the good, bad and the ugly until all the shows have open and each of us has had a chance to review the nominees with our own eyes. (IMHO) What someone thinks is crappy, another may think is absolutey wonderful

lizzya9...Little mermaid is opening at the end of this year. So they will not be competing. Why is the little mermaid on your favorite shows list when it didn't open yet?

Even if you DO subscribe to the idea of "payback" awards, to say that Mary Poppins should (or will) win because AIDA should have is a major, major stretch. AIDA wasn't even nominated, first of all, and you would be hard pressed to find many people who agree that it was deserving of a Tony. The interesting thing about AIDA's position that year was that it was nominated for lots of elemental awards (and won the majority of the categories for which it was nominated) but not the big culmination. So I think it's fair to say it should have been nominated, but still, you'd have to have an awful lot of people who thought it deserved to win. I love that show very much, but that's just ridiculous.

Spring Awakening is not "definitely" the front runner -- it's probably one of two, the other being Grey Gardens.

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Updated On: 2/17/07 at 03:59 PM

whoops! LOL I am still thinking it is 06' ; ) yah SA might get a nom, but just because something gets praise and attention doesn't make it good. I'm not judging at all, I'm sure it's a great night at the theatre, but I'm just saying that all the talk show appearances in the world doesn't make a show any good or the critics/judges love it any more.

Based SOLELY on reviews, SPRING AWAKENING and GREY GARDENS are the frontrunners of the category thus far. Neither of them will win. It'll go to CURTAINS or LEGALLY BLONDE.

Why do I say that? Look at the history of Tony Award best musical votes in recent years. The winners (for the most part) are based upon commercial value. Say all you want that SPRING AWAKENING is exploding, but for a show with reviews like it has, isn't a box office smash. Not even close. Same with GREY GARDENS. These shows have very little commercial value.

Think of yourself as a road producer with voting ability. A show about teens and sex, masturbation, homosexuality, etc. (that won't sell in America's heartland!), a show about two women who live with their cats in a dilapadated mansion (talk about niche audience!), or a big, splashy musical featuring an upbeat score, vibrant costumes and sets, and a "star" role (that can play to every audience member, young and old!).

In a world where money is EVERYTHING, what are you going to vote for?

I'd love to see a show like SPRING AWAKENING or GREY GARDENS win. They're brilliant, groundbreaking, expectation-shattering shows featuring tip-top performances. However, they don't sell.

Updated On: 2/17/07 at 04:08 PM

whoops! LOL I am still thinking it is 06' ; ) yah SA might get a nom, but just because something gets praise and attention doesn't make it good. I'm not judging at all, I'm sure it's a great night at the theatre, but I'm just saying that all the talk show appearances in the world doesn't make a show any good or the critics/judges love it any more.

Its not just the critics who love the show, audiences do too. Your confusing your personal taste with facts and observations. As I have pointed out in other posts, Spring Awakening is a big hit with both audiences and critics. I'm sorry if this is too much of a reality jolt, but Spring Awakening is a hit.

Based SOLELY on reviews, SPRING AWAKENING and GREY GARDENS are the frontrunners of the category thus far. Neither of them will win. It'll go to CURTAINS or LEGALLY BLONDE.

This is sad but has a good chance of becomeing true. I wouldn't mind either of those shows winning(I'm looking foward to both), but I would would rather they won on artistic merit rather than dollar-eyed out of town voters.

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i really think it'll be spring awakening, grey gardens, curtains, maybe mary poppins, and legally blonde.

mary poppins should definately be up for set!
and company SHOULD get revival, hopefully it wont go to the miserable show i mean les miz

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