Bradley Cooper... an Oscar and a Tony? — Page 2

If American Sniper wins an Oscar, it will be for editing, or one of the two sound categories it is nominated for. Cooper will watch Keaton win.

I'd be shocked if he won either. No one even thought he'd get nominated for American Sniper, and while his work in Elephant Man has been well received, the show will have been closed for several months by June. At this point, I'd expect Alex Sharp to win, but with Bill Nighy, Larry David, and Steven Boyer still waiting to open their respective plays, that's not even close to a sure thing.

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Yes it does.

People like to think that it matters who wins what prior and they prounounce they know every single year. And then when it doesn't happen as their weak predictions indicated (by other award show winners), they say it's a fluke.

Consider this year to be a fluke.

It's pretty much a straight fight between Keaton and Redmayne now. They both won Globes, Keaton won 3 Critics Choice Awards last night, and the more minor awards have been split between them. Keaton will probably win at SAG and Redmayne Bafta, so I think it could be either on Oscar night, but I think Keaton has the whole 'overdue' thing working for him. I can't see Cooper causing an upset, he's not SAG or Bafta nominated and he's not been able to campaign this season. He is one of only a handful of actors to be nominated three times in a row though, so I suspect he'll have to be content with being in that company. I don't see a Tony being out of his reach though.

The Producers Guild awards is usually the best indicator of what will win Best Picture, they've been in tune with Academy voters, I think it's the last 7 years, probably because there's an overlap in voters.

In your dreams. Not a chance for either award.

The days of a true surprise Oscar win in any acting category are probably long gone. Ten years ago or so, there were not nearly as many televised precursor awards. But now, they are everywhere. The Golden Globes used to award pretty much whomever they felt like seeing on stage. Now they, along with every other award show, want to their winners to be those who are most likely to go all the way on Oscar night. Once someone picks up serious momentum, such as any frontrunner in any of the four acting categories this year, it's a usually a sure thing. And that is why Bradley Cooper is not winning. Yes, his film was released in the last leg of the race. But it's not enough to take down Michael Keaton.

He will win neither. Do people here even follow the awards? Sheesh.

Anyways, here are the Vegas odds for American Sniper. Easily last place odds for both picture and actor.

Best Picture
“Boyhood,” 2 to 5
“The Imitation Game,” 7 to 1
“The Grand Budapest Hotel,” 9 to 1
“Birdman,” 18 to 1
“Selma,” 20 to 1
“The Theory of Everything,” 30 to 1
“Whiplash,” 60 to 1
“American Sniper,” 75 to 1

Best Actor
Michael Keaton, “Birdman,” 5 to 6
Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything,” 11 to 10
Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Imitation Game,” 20 to 1
Steve Carell, “Foxcatcher,” 30 to 1
Bradley Cooper, “American Sniper,” 75 to 1

And how often are the "Vegas Odds" right?

Did they pick right last year?

Cooper will not win an Oscar or a Tony. It was an honor for him to be nominated for an Oscar. American Sniper has no chance of winning the Oscar for best movie, either. It may win an editing or sound award and that's it.

Just saw American Sniper today. As much as I love Bradley Cooper, there is absolutely no way he's winning an Oscar for this performance. It's not even worthy of the nomination IMO. There were other performances this year that were far more deserving of a nod. Bill Murray in St. Vincent and Ellar Coltrane in Boyhood come to mind right away. I won't be surprised to see this movie get snubbed altogether come statue night. The message is a bit heavy-handed and I can't see Academy voters putting politics aside, even for a Sound Editing statue.

Sean Penn was a frontrunner to win the award. Cooper is just lucky to have gotten nominated. Yes there is always a chance that the academy could surprise in any category, but that wont happen this year for the actor or picture race. Cooper has basically no shot at a win.

American Sniper massively overperformed in its wide opening weekend. It's estimated to bring in over $109 million by the end of the day on Monday, making it the biggest 4-day opening weekend in history for an R-rated film. (The previous record-holder was The Hangover 2, starring you-know-who.) The film also has a rare A+ Cinemascore (meaning that those who are seeing it LOVE it), and will have grossed about 4 times as much as presumed frontrunner Boyhood, and almost twice as much as any of the other nominees for Best Picture.

There is an interesting article by Sasha Stone at awardsdaily.com, one of the leading awards sites, about what this all means in terms of the Oscars. She says that, although it is still an upward climb, American Sniper is speaking to the public in a way that none of the other nominees have. We'll see whether that affects how people vote. If American Sniper falls off quickly, one big weekend won't have any impact. But if it starts to become a box office phenomenon, right in the middle of Oscar voting season, it might play a role.

And Bradley Cooper's stock in Hollywood just went up enormously. Good for him.

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Updated On: 1/18/15 at 02:23 PM

"And Bradley Cooper's stock in Hollywood just went up enormously. Good for him."

The only thing Hollywood will take from American Sniper's opening weekend is to make more right-wing propaganda films.

Updated On: 1/18/15 at 03:18 PM