SomethingPeculiar said: "Frozen surprises me. I wouldn't have guessed that it would be at76.7% less than a year into the run (and that a production of To Kill A Mockingbird would out-gross it). Especially on a holiday weekend where a lot of other family titles went up. Not that $1.2mm is anything to scoff at, but that show ain't cheap.
This is a big year for Disney on Broadway: the live-action Aladdin and Lion King and the Frozen sequel could boost numbers and give these shows their best numbers yet. The question is, will they have long-term or short-term rewards?"
The Lion King will continue to flourish regardless of how well or badly the film does. It has been around for over 2 decades, but only Hamilton makes more money. I think that it is the only one of the three Disney musicals on Broadway which will still be on by 2030...
Aladdin and Frozen are harder to examine. Aladdin is nearing its 5th anniversary, and I wouldn't be surprised if it sets a closing date sooner rather than later. The bad buzz surrounding the live-action remake could hurt the stage version, but of the three Disney properties on Broadway, Aladdin deviates from the source material most, which could be helpful...
I don't think Frozen 2 will have MUCH of an effect on the Broadway version, but it could still have an impact. Apparently, some of the "Hidden Folk" mythology could make it into Frozen 2, but I don't think it will shut out anyone who hasn't seen the stage version. Assuming that Frozen 2 is "good but not great", like most of the other Disney sequels from this decade, I think that it will halt the decline for a few months, but the rewards will mostly be short term. The main test of Frozen's longevity will be how well it does in Australia and the West End. Assuming that the poor performance this week was an anomaly, I think it will still be on Broadway in 2020, but I believe its performance abroad will have a greater effect on its longevity...