Please keep in mind that the lead producer of Bright Star is Joey Parnes, who of course had successfully been able to keep A Gentleman's Guide to Love & Murder open for as long as he could. The show made it into Tony season, and we all saw how that turned out.
I think the difference is that Gentleman's Guide opened in the fall, in a much less exciting and critically well-received season than this one. Keeping the show open was definitely a risky move, but obviously one that paid off. Bright Star is competing with the juggernaut that is Hamilton, along with much higher-profile projects like Waitress and Shuffle Along. I can't imagine they'll close before the Tonys unless things really bottom out financially, but I don't think it's a comparable situation to Gentleman's Guide.
The shows opening this spring are competing with Hamilton for awards consideration but not box office. Hamilton is sold out for so far into the future, it can't possibly take away from the pre Tony box office of any other show.
“I knew who I was this morning, but I've changed a few times since then.”