IdinaBellFoster said: "Waiting for all the idiots to complain about the 900K for HELLO DOLLY. I'd say that's an excellent gross for Murphy."
IMO: If Murphy had opened the show, it would not be grossing what it does with Midler, but it would probably be selling out based on the show itself, its reviews, its newness, and the Tonys (including Murphy's third). She is hurt by the fact that its identity is currently so connected with the truly legendary performer Midler that no-one wants to see it without her. The big question: what happens when Midler leaves.
Some are predicting doom and gloom, a la Josh Groban. I think they are wrong.
1. Dolly is not TGC, which did NOT have broad appeal and will never have broad appeal. (What exactly is it's story and why do I care about the characters?? -- and I enjoyed it mostly!!!). Everyone loves good production of Hello Dolly, unless they are grinches.
2. Once Midler is not an option, people will focus on seeing the show. Admittedly, it is a shame that Peters is beginning in the dead of winter, and she will probably have some less than great early weeks; but, once her reviews come out, once she starts appearing everywhere to publicize the show, etc., the box office will do very well. And will continue to do so for some time.
3. Once Peters leaves, whether it is 3 months, 6 months or 12 months later, there are so many possibilities to replace her, just like the original run. And one of them will be the equivalent of Pearl Bailey, who will give it yet another new life. Creative producing and casting will be key. David Merrick managed to have this become the longest running show in Broadway history for awhile -- this was pre-Telecharge, pre-Internet sales, pre-television advertising, (I think) pre-credit card sales (I certainly remember paying with cash or check via mail order back then), pre-huge international tourism TO the US, pre-Times Square being a tourist magnet -- managing those criteria.
I am one of those who thinks -- one exception aside -- that this production is better than the original, which I saw many times. It may not run as long as Chicago, but it should. It will need creative casting, retaining the freshness, and staying on people's radar. If it does not run at least 5 years -- long for a revival -- then Rudin will have lost interest.