Early Predictions - 2006 Tony Nominees

What does everyone think will be the nominess for the 2006 Tony Awards??

Best Muscial:
Jersey Boys
Tarzan
Drowsy Chaperone
Ring of Fire

Best Play:
The History Boys
Festen
Rabbit Hole
Faith Healer

Best Musical Revival:
Sweeney Todd
Pajama Game
Threepenny Opera

Best Play Revival:
The Odd Couple
Barefoot in the Park
Awake and Sing!
Three Days of Rain

Thoughts??

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Ring of Fire....hmm....

Best Musical

Locks:
The Color Purple
Jersey Boys
Drowsy Chaperone

Possible:
Tarzan
Wedding Singer (if it pulls itself together)
Ring of Fire (though word of mouth is not good)

Dark Horses:
Woman in White
Lestat
Chita Rivera: A Dancer's Life

Advance word on Ring of Fire has been TERRIBLE. A friend went two nights ago and said tons of people walked out at intermission (and several even left during Act One). I give it a month (and zero Tony nods). It's looking more and more like:

Tarzan
The Color Purple
Drowsy Chaperone
Jersey Boys

Faith Healer is a revival, not a new play. Well by Lisa Kron or Shining City by Conor McPherson will take the fourth slot. My guess:

History Boys
Festen
Well
Rabbit Hole

As for Play revival:

Awake and Sing!
Three Days of Rain
Seascape
Faith Healer or The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial

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Updated On: 2/12/06 at 06:44 PM

Since we're guessing, what about Best Leading Actor, Featured Actor, Leading Actress, Featured Actress? Any thoughts?

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jo, I heard Jersey Boys is an awesome show!! You're so lucky you're seeing it!! I get to see Mamma Mia and The Lion King! I'm so excited!!

"I'm really curious to the replacement nominations. That will happen this year, right?"

Yes it will, but I'm still not sure exactly how that works. I know the producers of the shows nominate the actor/actress, but beyond that, I don't know.

And yes, I think JLY will get a nomination too.

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and what if
THE TIMES THEY ARE A'CHANGING
slips in under the wire?

In My Life will sweep all the awards.
Best Musical
Best Director, Joe Brooks
Besk Book, Joe Brooks
Best Original Score, Joe Brooks
Best Scenic Design


Now that that has been said and laughed about... my two cents:

I still think its a two horse race for best musical, Color Purple vs. Jersey Boys. What will the Tony voters like more: Oprah or JB's ticket sales? It's sad when that's what matters, not the actual show.

For leading actress in a musical, it's down to Patti or LaChanze. However, I'm not going to count out Chita... its not like she's not believable as herself. It's certainly a strong year for leading females, as Maria Freidman, Kelli O'Hara, Sutton Foster, Laura Benati, Jenn Gambatese

I can't see JLY not getting at least a nomination. Remember Brantley's love letter? Harry Connick, Jr will also get a nom, as will Michael Cerveris. Rounding out this category will be Steven Lynch, Hugh Panaro or Kingsley Leggs, most likely. Josh Strickland may be a dark horse. This will be a close category, I do believe.

I'm thinking The Color Purple will take the Featured Actress category, either Felicia Fields or Elisabeth Withers-Mendes.

Featured Actor? I'd be willing at least one of the supporting members of Jersey Boys will be in here, and maybe Michael McKean. Brandon Victor Dixon may also get a nom. I can't see anyone but Manoel Felciano taking this, however.

Pajama Game or Threepenny Opera will have to be VERY good to overtake Sweeney for Best Revival.

It'll be interesting to see if they can find four or five scores to nominate for Best Score. There are only 7 original scores this year (Woman in White, In My Life, Color Purple, Lestat, Drowsy Chaperone, Wedding Singer, Hot Feet and Tarzan). Could Joe Brooks grab a nomination? CAN HE?

No.

Margo, Jersey Boys???

Best Muscial:
Jersey Boys
Tarzan
Drowsy Chaperone
The Color Purple

Best Play:
The History Boys
Festen
Rabbit Hole
Well

Best Musical Revival:
Sweeney Todd
Pajama Game
Threepenny Opera

Best Play Revival:
Awake and Sing!
The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial
Faith Healer
Three Days of Rain

Updated On: 2/12/06 at 12:46 AM

I'm probably the only one, and true I didn't see the show, but I'm not at all confident the New York critics are going to be as excited by THE DROWSY CHAPERONE as their L.A. counterparts.

In December, I told Bob Martin (From The Drowsy Chaperone) that I thought he would be the first actor that doesn't sing in a show to win a Tony for Best Actor in a Musical. I am placing my bets as we speak....

Doesnt Michael Cerveris have a Tony lock for Sweeney. That's what it seems. And I hope Hugh Panaro gets the replacement Tony for Phantom.

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