Posted: 5/30/17 at 7:21am
Bette Midler has been pretty much the automatic winner of this race even before the tony nominations- however, if this no tony's performance this is true, she could lose some votes for it. And isn't there strong competition coming from the War Paint ladies as well as Benton? I don't know if she's as big of a lock as people think.
Posted: 5/30/17 at 7:23am
Front runner, yes. Lock, no.
Posted: 5/30/17 at 7:32am
I think she WAS a lock until the Times article. She's still the front runner though.
Posted: 5/30/17 at 7:38am
I wouldn't be surprised if she didn't win. I also don't think the show itself is a lock, by any means. Hello, Dolly! is no favorite of the agenda crowd --- and that's putting it mildly. They would have voted for Sunday in the Park With George in a heartbeat if they had had the opportunity, Thankfully for us, they didn't. But another wretched critics' darling is available: Falsettos.
Posted: 5/30/17 at 7:43am
I think it makes no difference. Of course, as we never know anything but the final results, we'll never REALLY know.
Posted: 5/30/17 at 10:09am
Or maybe Eva Noblezada could pull an upset given her on and off stage narrative. I won't be predicting that, but I think it's possible.
Posted: 5/30/17 at 10:22am
Jeffrey Karasarides said: "Or maybe Eva Noblezada could pull an upset given her on and off stage narrative. I won't be predicting that, but I think it's possible.
Not going to happen. If anyone beats Midler it would likely be LuPone or possibly Ebersole.
Of course we'll never know how "close" any of these races are, as interesting as that would be.
Posted: 5/30/17 at 10:27am
It really sucks that Annaleigh wasn't nominated because I'd love her to win a Tony for a musical. Especially if shows brilliant as everyone said she was.
Posted: 5/30/17 at 10:31am
War Paint isn't even up for Best Musical. You have to go all the way back to 2000 when Heather Headley won Lead Actress in a Musical for Aida, despite the fact that it wasn't even a Best Musical nominee that year. Plus, it could be hard for Tony voters to figure out who to rally behind more. Patti LuPone or Christine Ebersole?
Posted: 5/30/17 at 10:35am
The other ladies aren't even a question in my mind. If Annaleigh were nominated, then it would be a real contest. Otherwise, Bette is a given.
Posted: 5/30/17 at 10:41am
I see a world where Denée wins.
Posted: 5/30/17 at 10:53am
My hope is that, if there's any fallout from the Times article, it doesn't affect the Leading Actress race, but the Revival race.
Posted: 5/30/17 at 11:00am
I'm starting to wonder? I think this production is so worthy and Bette is deserving, but now the backlash kicks in (again). I could see Christine, if she and Patti don't split votes, pulling an upset. Or, will they reward Denee Benton b/c most likely Platt will win. It's sad that it again becomes political jockeying and not "best performance".
Remember neither Bette nor "I'll Eat You Last" were even nominated for the Tony. I can definitely see a huge upset aimed at Rudin and not so much at Bette. She still lives in NY and does so much for NYC and charity. But if that does happen, it happens to her and not him.
Posted: 5/30/17 at 11:28am
LYLS3637 said: "My hope is that, if there's any fallout from the Times article, it doesn't affect the Leading Actress race, but the Revival race."
I'm guessing that if anything happens, this is it. Bette wasn't the reason for her not performing at the Tonys, the decision was made by the producers. If voters follow logic (which is, admittedly, a bit of a stretch), it seems to me they would be upset with the production as a whole, not single Bette out, which would result in Dolly losing the revival award, likely to Falsettos.
Posted: 5/30/17 at 11:49am
cb2addict2 said: "I see a world where Denée wins. "
The least memorable of the five performances, IMO.
Posted: 5/30/17 at 12:35pm
Is anything a lock? No. But actress and revival still seem to be 2 of the biggest guarantees of the night.
The War Paint ladies, great as they are, will cancel each other out, not to mention the fact that they've both won twice already. That leaves Denee and Eva who, while both have their fans, don't seem to have near enough support to actually win.
And as for revival, considering that since the revival category was split in 1994, no closed show has ever won Revival of a Musical (including Porgy and Bess beating the heavily favored but closed Follies), that basically makes this a race between Dolly and Miss Saigon. And Miss Saigon isn't winning.
Posted: 5/30/17 at 12:39pm
Nope.
Posted: 5/30/17 at 12:50pm
Is there any "evidence" that there IS any backlash? Seems pretty petty to me. (not that it couldn't happen.)
Posted: 5/30/17 at 12:59pm
dramamama611 said: "Is there any "evidence" that there IS any backlash? Seems pretty petty to me. (not that it couldn't happen.)"
None. It could all be a tempest in a teapot confined here- to a group consisting largely of people who are not voters, not in New York, and not even in the industry.
And when has backlash actually made a difference and denied a perceived front-runner the award?
This is an 11 o'clock attempt to inject some drama into an awards that is largely drama-free.
Updated On: 5/30/17 at 12:59 PM
Posted: 5/30/17 at 1:08pm
Bette will still in, but the concept that two nominees from the same show cancel each other is not always true. Billy Porter in KINKY BOOTS, Leslie Odom Jr. in HAMILTON, Douglas Hodge in LA CAGE, Norbert Leo Butz in DIRTY ROTTEN SCOUNDRELS, Idina Menzel in WICKED, Faith Price in GUYS IN DOLLS are just some examples from the top of my head. The list goes on.
Posted: 5/30/17 at 1:19pm
cb2addict2 said: "I see a world where Denée wins. "
And there's even a name for that world. Fantasyland!!
Posted: 5/30/17 at 1:31pm
IdinaBellFoster said: "Bette will still in, but the concept that two nominees from the same show cancel each other is not always true. Billy Porter in KINKY BOOTS, Leslie Odom Jr. in HAMILTON, Douglas Hodge in LA CAGE, Norbert Leo Butz in DIRTY ROTTEN SCOUNDRELS, Idina Menzel in WICKED, Faith Price in GUYS IN DOLLS are just some examples from the top of my head. The list goes on.
"
I think the ladies from War Paint are more likely to split the vote than some of these examples. They really are perfectly equivalent roles. Of course the guys in Kinky Boots didn't split the vote, Lola has the winning role. Same with Elphaba. But in War Paint it seems much more even
Posted: 5/30/17 at 1:47pm
245601 said: "IdinaBellFoster said: "Bette will still in, but the concept that two nominees from the same show cancel each other is not always true. Billy Porter in KINKY BOOTS, Leslie Odom Jr. in HAMILTON, Douglas Hodge in LA CAGE, Norbert Leo Butz in DIRTY ROTTEN SCOUNDRELS, Idina Menzel in WICKED, Faith Price in GUYS IN DOLLS are just some examples from the top of my head. The list goes on.
"
I think the ladies from War Paint are more likely to split the vote than some of these examples. They really are perfectly equivalent roles. Of course the guys in Kinky Boots didn't split the vote, Lola has the winning role. Same with Elphaba. But in War Paint it seems much more even"
Good points - but I'd ray the roles in HAMILTON are both "winning" roles, with the edge going to Burr.
Posted: 5/30/17 at 1:50pm
245601 said: "IdinaBellFoster said: "Bette will still in, but the concept that two nominees from the same show cancel each other is not always true. Billy Porter in KINKY BOOTS, Leslie Odom Jr. in HAMILTON, Douglas Hodge in LA CAGE, Norbert Leo Butz in DIRTY ROTTEN SCOUNDRELS, Idina Menzel in WICKED, Faith Price in GUYS IN DOLLS are just some examples from the top of my head. The list goes on.
"
I think the ladies from War Paint are more likely to split the vote than some of these examples. They really are perfectly equivalent roles. Of course the guys in Kinky Boots didn't split the vote, Lola has the winning role. Same with Elphaba. But in War Paint it seems much more even
"
Yes, in most of those previous examples, one role clearly shone above the other (or at least had gotten most of the buzz leading up to the Tonys) whereas both Ebersole and Lupone seem to have been received pretty equally. Plus, throw in the fact that they each have multiple Tonys already and are starring in a show that's gotten a pretty mediocre reception (and isn't in the Best Musical race) and it seems unlikely either of them will garner enough individual support for them to win.
Posted: 5/30/17 at 1:53pm
Good points - but I'd ray the roles in HAMILTON are both "winning" roles, with the edge going to Burr.
"
And yes, this is probably the closest example of the roles being received equally, but even here, there was a lot more buzz regarding Odom (plus, War Paint is not exactly Hamilton in regards to critical and award recognition)
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