& JULIET Recoups Its Investment

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 6/11/24 at 9:23am

It’s nice to see a new musical hit the black in a post-pandemic world where financial successes feel much rarer than before. Congrats to everyone at the Sondheim.

https://www.broadwaynews.com/juliet-recoups-on-broadway/

[Impeach2017]

Posted: 6/11/24 at 10:42am

Broadway is doomed! - New York Post

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 6/11/24 at 11:17am

Impeach2017 said: "Broadway is doomed! - New York Post"

tbf, one show recouping 17 months after opening isn't a bellwether for ALL of Broadway! But any financial success this day and age is worth applauding.

According to Broadway Briefing, six musicals that opened after the pandemic have recouped (Merrily, MJ, & Juliet, Gutenberg, Funny Girl, Six) and three plays (Enemy of the People, Prima Facie, Piano Lesson). A few others may have recouped but not announced (I believe Lehman Trilogy was one of those) or if the numbers are close + tax credits are outstanding they might not know until a full reconciliation is done.

[Wick3]

Posted: 6/11/24 at 11:26am

I think Music Man recouped as well? Over half of those productions had a star (Lea Michele, Daniel Radcliffe, Jeremy Strong, etc.) that helped it recoup. 

The songs in & Juliet are well-known and though it’s not a guarantee, I’m glad the musical recouped!

Im glad Enemy of the People recouped at Circle in the Square. I think the last time a show recouped in that theater was Fun Home? From advanced sales it looks like Romeo & Juliet will also recoup.

[OhHiii]

Posted: 6/11/24 at 12:13pm

There are several shows that definitely recouped that didn't announce that aren't on that list.

Sweeney Todd, Music Man, Leopoldstadt, Purlie Victorious, Lehman Trilogy, Merrily has certainly recouped by now, Into The Woods, Old Man In The Pool, Just for Us, Parade, Plaza Suite, The Piano Lesson (i think), A Doll's House, Good Night Oscar to name a few...

I know it's en vogue to write the obituary for Broadway every single week, but there are truly plenty of success stories. And the common thread among them? They are things people wanted to see. You can't say Broadway is failing when the majority of recent offerings has been so mediocre. Next season also has the potential to be blockbuster with the number of high profile productions already announced.

Updated On: 6/11/24 at 12:13 PM

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 6/11/24 at 1:07pm

OhHiii said: "There are several shows that definitely recouped that didn't announce that aren't on that list.

Sweeney Todd, Music Man, Leopoldstadt, Purlie Victorious, Lehman Trilogy, Merrily hascertainlyrecouped by now, Into The Woods, Old Man In The Pool, Just for Us, Parade, Plaza Suite, The Piano Lesson (i think), A Doll's House, Good Night Oscar to name a few..."

Yes, thanks for that.

SWEENEY, MUSIC MAN, PLAZA SUITE, and WOODS definitely recouped.

PURLIE did not recoup, and Leslie confirmed that in an interview recently.

I wouldn't be surprised if some of your examples got close to recouping (like 75-90%) but didn't fully get there. Which is something of a victory in this day and age. Or like PIANO LESSON, they may be waiting until all the books are closed out to determine exactly how much can be returned to investors. Old Man In The Pool and Just for Us received a fee for the filming, too (though whether that's enough to bring it to 100% is a different matter).

The bottom line is, stars and branded IP are the only thing selling nowadays.

[Jumpin_J]

Posted: 6/11/24 at 1:52pm

I've been screaming from the rooftops that this isn't sustainable. The model is broken. As budgets continue to spiral upwards, recoupment will take long if at all which will scare investors away and shows will get harder to open. Why do you think Stereophonic has 58 credits above the title? It's capitalized at $8M which is crazy for a 7 person, one set play. So what do the lead producers do? "You get a Tony, and You get a Tony, and You get a Tony,..." to make up for either leaving you money parked for a year or more with slim chances of turning a profit. Does anyone think investors in Lempika or Heart Of Rock And Roll are going to come back? Probably not, and that's a really bad thing for Broadway.

[Wick3]

Posted: 6/11/24 at 3:06pm

I feel people have been saying this is not sustainable for the past few years yet every year we have producers scrambling to find an available theater on Broadway.

[Zeppie2022]

Posted: 6/11/24 at 3:24pm

"I know it's en vogue to write the obituary for Broadway every single week, but there are truly plenty of success stories"

Even in the best of times, don't most Broadway shows fail to recoup? I am just guessing the percentage that fail but would be willing to bet it is 75% or higher.

[chrishuyen]

Posted: 6/11/24 at 3:35pm

I think the statistic that gets cited is that only about 20% of shows recoup BUT that only occurs during their Broadway run and doesn't include possible recoupment from other productions/licensing etc. so it's possible more productions eventually end up recouping.

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 6/11/24 at 3:53pm

Zeppie2022 said: "Even in the best of times,don't most Broadway shows fail to recoup?I am just guessing the percentage that fail but would be willing to bet it is 75% or higher."


Yes, 75% failing to recoup is the norm. It's lower now post-Covid. By my estimation, here's where we stand in the past 3 years since the reopening. It's an estimate, so give or take a couple of productions:

MUSICALS (9 recouped out of 50* total = 18% recoupment rate)

• Merrily
• MJ
• & Juliet
• Gutenberg
• Funny Girl
• Six
• Into the Woods
• Sweeney Todd
• The Music Man

6 were star-driven revivals, 2 used existing pop music, and 1 is wholly original but cheap to capitalize.
 

PLAYS (6 recouped out of 47* total = 13% recoupment rate)

• Enemy of the People
• Prima Facie
• Piano Lesson
• Plaza Suite
• A Doll’s House
• Lehman Trilogy

5/6 were star-driven plays. One came in with major acclaim from London and the Armory.

 

*Excludes nonprofit productions that did not have commercial partners attached. Includes shows that are still running and could eventually recoup, or could get to 100% on the road or via licensing.

 

As mentioned in other posts, some others (Parade, Good Night Oscar) appear to have got within spitting distance of recouping that they might eventually hit profit via touring, international, or regional/community licensing, and two others were solo shows that received a payment from a streaming service to be factored in (Just For Us, Old Man and the Pool).

[Wick3]

Posted: 6/12/24 at 8:56am

Yes SIX is original and cheap to capitalize and it's also a West End transfer that did extremely well in the UK. Even though I never took UK history in the USA, I knew Henry VIII had 6 wives.

I'd also add that a lot of friends who work in finance especially during the Great Recession were really interested in watching Lehman Trilogy when it was on Broadway. 

I agree with you that stars and/or well-known IP helps with recoupment.

This is similar to movies where most of the big blockbuster movies that do well in the box office tend to be star-driven or well-known branded IP. 

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 6/12/24 at 10:19am

I have this not-fully-thought-out theory that because there was no new theatre content during the pandemic, everyone was forced to look back at the past. Which increased people’s love of nostalgia and is contributing to nostalgic or branded shows and safe bets doing even better post-pandemic at the expense of newer shows.

[hearthemsing22]

Posted: 6/12/24 at 10:40am

ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "I have this not-fully-thought-out theory that because there was no new theatre content during the pandemic, everyone was forced to look back at the past. Which increased people’s love of nostalgia and is contributing to nostalgic or branded shows and safe bets doing even better post-pandemic at the expense of newer shows."

That's honestly what keeps me going back to certain shows, you're correct

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 6/12/24 at 11:00am

Did the West End production of the show recoup? 

[Wick3]

Posted: 6/12/24 at 2:55pm

ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "I have this not-fully-thought-out theory that because there was no new theatre content during the pandemic, everyone was forced to look back at the past. Which increased people’s love of nostalgia and is contributing to nostalgic or branded shows and safe bets doing even better post-pandemic at the expense of newer shows."

I can see that but at the same time, revivals tend to be star driven. In addition, the people who have $$$ to spend tend to watch musicals that they fondly remember from their childhood.

I wish A-list stars would opt to be part of new original shows rather than revivals.  

[hearthemsing22]

Posted: 6/12/24 at 3:09pm

Wick3 said: "ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "I have this not-fully-thought-out theory that because there was no new theatre content during the pandemic, everyone was forced to look back at the past. Which increased people’s love of nostalgia and is contributing to nostalgic or branded shows and safe bets doing even better post-pandemic at the expense of newer shows."

I can see that but at the same time, revivals tend to be star driven. In addition, the people who have $$$ to spend tend to watch musicals that they fondly remember from their childhood.

I wish A-list stars would opt to be part ofnew original shows rather than revivals."

Then at least new original shows might have a fighting chance of surviving longer given the interest their casting would drum up. Agreed 

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 6/12/24 at 4:21pm

Wick3 said: "I wish A-list stars would opt to be part ofnew original shows rather than revivals."

The reason why this doesn’t happen is the time commitment it takes to create a new musical. A new musical likely requires several years of commitment between workshops and readings. A revival is already built and doesn’t require any pre-production commitments. 

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 6/12/24 at 4:34pm

Wick3 said: "I can see that but at the same time, revivals tend to be star driven. In addition, the people who have $$$ to spend tend to watch musicals that they fondly remember from their childhood.

I wish A-list stars would opt to be part ofnew original shows rather than revivals."

I was more referring to musicals with that half-baked thought about nostalgia, but I do think there is a level of nostalgia that comes with seeing famous people as well (and, naturally, revivals). There's something comforting for buyers in "knowing what you're getting."

Credit where it's due to Downey Jr, Jodie Comer, Danny DeVito, and a few others for choosing to do new plays instead of revivals!!