I think Akimbo is SO SO SO SO much better than Some Like it Hot in every single way. Score, book, humor, performances, all of it.
HOWEVER, I REALLY fell in love with Akimbo on rewatches and REALLY fell in love with much more of the score upon listening to the cast recording. I really enjoyed my first viewing of Akimbo and I also really enjoyed Some Like it Hot. Walking out of SLIH and my first time at Akimbo, I probably only liked Akimbo a bit more.
The vast majority of Tony voters probably aren't seeing anything more than once and probably aren't listening to cast recordings. Will they still like Akimbo better? I don't know.
And I really would also look at historical precedent, which has held up remarkably well for the Tonys. Looking at the last decade, the only times I can think of where the biggest, flashiest show won Best Musical were Hamilton, which was, of course, SUCH a unique phenomenon, Moulin Rouge, which won mostly because of the lack of competition, and Kinky Boots, which I would consider the only example of the three in which a bigger, flashier show won during a truly competitive season.
TL;DR, I think Akimbo wins based on both quality and precedent, but the way that Tony voters experience shows (not a lot of time can be spent on a show because you have to see dozens of them) could hurt it.