Most Likely Nominees for Best Musical at the TONY's

[BenKaye]

Posted: 2/12/09 at 6:35pm

In my opinion, based on the fact that, the musicals chosen are "usually" ones that are open at the time of the TONY's, and because there will only be a few new shows open at that time, I think the nominees will probably be...

BILLY ELLIOTT
SHREK
THE STORY OF MY LIFE
9 TO 5

Rock of Ages might slip in there in case 9 to 5 is a flop, or if Story of My Life closes (Please God it won't), but these are the most likely candidates in my opinion.

Thoughts?

[WishingOnlyWounds2]

Posted: 2/12/09 at 6:41pm

9 to 5 will get nominated and very well may win, it's a huge show with Dolly's name attached, and besides the point it got good reviews and excellent word of mouth!
Rock of Ages most likely will as well.


I highly doubt The Story of My Life will.

Updated On: 2/12/09 at 06:41 PM

[EveHarrington]

Posted: 2/12/09 at 6:45pm

9 to 5 won't be a flop, LOL. 9 to 5 will definitely be nominated, as will Shrek and Billy Elliot, I think.

[#1Elphie]

Posted: 2/12/09 at 6:57pm

9 to 5 and Billy Elliot are locks; those are the two main contenders. As for the two other slots, I agree that Shrek will probably take one. Not sure about the other.

[BustopherPhantom]

Posted: 2/12/09 at 6:59pm

Say it with me: "Why does it matter? BILLY ELLIOT is going to win anyway." :)

I think the lineup (for now) will be:

BILLY ELLIOT
ROCK OF AGES
THE STORY OF MY LIFE
9 TO 5

[yankees1253]

Posted: 2/12/09 at 7:04pm

I agree with all of you:

Billy Elliot
Shrek
9 to 5
Rock of Ages

I hope Billy Elliot performs last for the performances.
Billy Elliot should do electricity and let the ballet girls and michaels do a little solo dancing.

For Shrek defintely i know its today.

[Elke]

Posted: 2/12/09 at 7:06pm

BustopherPhantom, I like your lineup, but don't you think that Shrek will be nominated? Or will it be the "Tony surprise of the year"?

Personally, I think that Billy Elliot, Shrek and 9 To 5 will be nominated for sure. For the 4th slot, I hope The Story Of My Life. I have no idea how the critics are going to review it though... So Rock Of Ages stands a chance as well.

[Drunk Chita Rivera]

Posted: 2/12/09 at 7:08pm

I don't think Story Of My Life will be nominated. I think it will close within the next month judging by the numbers of last week. So far I think the following shows will get nominated...

Billy Elliot
9 to 5
Shrek (Maybe)
[insert Story of My Life, Rock of Ages, or [title of show] here]

[BustopherPhantom]

Posted: 2/12/09 at 7:12pm

...don't you think that Shrek will be nominated?

I hope SHREK doesn't get nominated. I'm sick of all these corporate-flavor, film-xerox musicals, and I'm betting that the voters will be too.

However, I wouldn't count it out. Unlike the Oscars, the Tony voters tend to go for what they enjoyed, instead of what seems respectable (case in point: TOP GIRLS being shut out last year, save for Martha Plimpton's nod), so I don't think they'll be as susceptible to the "Well, if we're going to support giant shows like BILLY ELLIOT and 9 TO 5 and ROCK OF AGES, we might as well let a little show like THE STORY OF MY LIFE or [TITLE OF SHOW] in, too" mentality.

So I wouldn't count it out. But God, I hope it gets left out.

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 2/12/09 at 7:14pm

I hope SHREK gets left out, too.

That show is not musical theatre.

[Elke]

Posted: 2/12/09 at 7:16pm

Thanks for clarifying, BustopherPhantom. I see what you mean and you may be right, the voters may go for the smaller, more original shows this year (not that Billy and 9 To 5 are small, but oh well). I'd appreciate it though... :)

[snarkywannabedreamer]

Posted: 2/12/09 at 7:23pm

Thinking purely about the telecast and getting America to really pay attention to the Tonys this year, I think Tony voters would be nuts not to include "Rock Of Ages" just for the ridiculous spectacle of seeing Jon Bon Jovi, Pat Benetar, and the guys from Whitesnake sitting next to someone like Elaine Stritch for the evening. The awkwardness of that would be hilarious.

[snarkywannabedreamer]

Posted: 2/12/09 at 7:25pm

Besides that... Billy Elliot, 9 to 5, and Shrek (I really actually liked that musical) I believe will be the other nominees.

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 2/12/09 at 7:25pm

Tony voters don't choose the nominees.

The Nominating Committee, which is a group of about 24 NY-based theatre snobs, choose them.

They have been known to leave out biggies in the past.

[dg22894]

Posted: 2/12/09 at 7:33pm

Best Musical Nominees:

9 to 5
Shrek
Billy Elliot
title of show or Story of My Life

[snarkywannabedreamer]

Posted: 2/12/09 at 7:40pm

You're absolutely correct. That is what I meant (jumped a step in my post). And I totally agree that the Nominating Committee tends to be a bit snobby and disregard some big "less artsy" shows... that is why I think they need to get hip (especially in this economy) to the fact that most of America has no interest in the Tonys (CBS only covers it because Les Moonves is a huge Broadway fan) and they really need to think of ways to get THOSE people outside the Theater Community to pay hundreds of dollars to come to NYC and see the shows. I don't think a televised number from "Story Of My Life" is gonna cut it, sad to say.

[BustopherPhantom]

Posted: 2/12/09 at 7:50pm

And I totally agree that the Nominating Committee tends to be a bit snobby and disregard some big "less artsy" shows

Exactly. Because CRY-BABY, that was totally innovative: I don't think I've ever seen people singing a song... BUT WITH TONGUE!

And TOP GIRLS? Nominating TOP GIRLS would be like saying that Andrew Lloyd Webber should be our national composer (never mind that he's British)!

And we all know how "commercial whore-"esque shows like LOVEMUSIK, THE LIGHT IN THE PIAZZA, A CATERED AFFAIR, CORAM BOY, PRIMO, etc. etc. etc... :)

Updated On: 2/12/09 at 07:50 PM

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 2/12/09 at 7:52pm

LIGHT IN THE PIAZZA was nominated for Best Musical.

AIDA was shut out of a nomination in a season surrounded by artsy shows.

[BustopherPhantom]

Posted: 2/12/09 at 7:53pm

LIGHT IN THE PIAZZA was nominated for Best Musical.

Maybe putting PIAZZA in with all those other, not-nominated shows, wasn't the best structural idea. The point was that it didn't win.

And AIDA was the exception that proves the rule. People were sort-of shocked that it didn't get in, just like they were shocked that VICTOR/VICTORIA was left out for two shows that were already closed (SWINGING ON A STAR and CHRONICLES OF A DEATH FORETOLD).

Updated On: 2/12/09 at 07:53 PM

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 2/12/09 at 7:55pm

Well, the voters choose the winners. Not the Nominating Committee. Just saying.

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 2/12/09 at 7:58pm

I do think the TOP GIRLS revival was brilliant, and that it deserved a nomination over the boring revival of LES LIAISONS DANGEREUSES, but that was a pretty artsy production, too.

[rjjn]

Posted: 2/12/09 at 8:05pm

My prediction pretty much matches everyone else's:

Billy Elliot
Shrek
9 to 5
Rock of Ages

[snarkywannabedreamer]

Posted: 2/12/09 at 8:14pm

Bustopher, I never offered any absolutes. Yes, I know you can site examples where big dumb shows get nominated. Congrats. That really wasn't the point. I think what wannabeafoster was offering was that there was A CHANCE that something like Rock Of Ages or Shrek would be shut out because the nomination committee is SOMETIMES snobby toward shows like that.

[CurtainPullDowner]

Posted: 2/12/09 at 8:44pm

I believe (title of show) will get a nom.

[CSonBroadway]

Posted: 2/12/09 at 9:05pm

I love Billy Elliot, but that doesn't need tons of awards to be successful. I really would like to see 9 to 5 take best musical and best score.